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The PLAY: Total Under 165.0 (-108)

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Georgia Bulldogs @ Oklahoma Sooners — today (Feb 14, 2026)

Team comparison chart:

Score projection + spread/total breakdown

Projected score:
Georgia 80 — Oklahoma 79

Trends since 1/1/26

Georgia

• SEC schedule — mostly Quad-1/Quad-2 quality.

• Several high-tempo games (OT vs Auburn reached 204 total points).

• Recent stretch shows defensive slippage vs elite offenses (ex: Texas 87).

• ATS shape: inconsistent; offense strong enough to cover as dogs.

Oklahoma

• Hit a nine-game losing streak before upsetting Vanderbilt.

• Defense has allowed many games into high 70s/80s (Arkansas 83, Texas A&M 83, Texas 79).

• ATS profile: volatile — huge swing between competitive losses and defensive collapses.

Matchup vs sportsbook number

• Market hanging 164.5 → clearly pricing SEC pace + weak defense combo.

• If this turns into a half-court game, under hits easily.

• If pace pushes 70+ possessions, total explodes.

Player matchup breakdown (competition-adjusted)

Georgia’s edge is frontcourt pressure via Asa Newell, who thrives against physical SEC defenders; Oklahoma’s interior (Wague + Davis) has size but can be dragged away from the rim in transition and pick-and-pop actions. If Georgia forces early switches, Newell becomes a mismatch magnet and Georgia’s offense flows.

Backcourt chess: Xzayvier Brown vs Silas Demary Jr is the key tempo lever. Brown is Oklahoma’s stabilizer and late-clock creator; when SEC defenses pressure him, turnovers rise, and Oklahoma’s offense turns jump-shot heavy. Georgia’s guards don’t defend perfectly, but they generate enough pace that Oklahoma may be forced to run — which inflates scoring variance.

Nijel Pack gives Oklahoma volatility: when he hits early threes, totals fly over because Oklahoma accelerates pace and spacing. If he starts cold, Oklahoma tends to grind and scoring compresses.

Level of competition factor: Georgia has spent more time against top-tier SEC athleticism recently, which typically hardens defensive rotations — slight intangible edge in late-game possessions.

Why I am betting Under 163.5 or higher

• The number is already sky-high for a conference game. At 164.5/165, you basically need both teams to live in the 80s, or one team to nuke the other while the loser still scores ~75+. One cold shooting stretch (very normal in college hoops) can kill that.

• A bunch of the “recent overs” are OT-inflated. Georgia–Tennessee went to OT (86–85), and Oklahoma–Missouri went to OT (88–87). That’s free points that the market remembers, but OT is not a repeatable skill. If this stays in regulation, Under 165 becomes a lot more realistic.

• Georgia’s pace can help the under… because it also creates empty possessions. They play fast, but fast doesn’t always mean efficient—quick shots + turnovers = possessions that burn very little clock without producing points. That’s how you get 70+ possessions and still land in the 150s.

• Oklahoma’s offense has been volatile (and confidence matters). They’d been on a nine-game losing streak before the Vanderbilt upset. That kind of stretch usually comes with uneven shot quality and stretches where the offense stalls—exactly what an under wants.

• Both teams have shown they can win/compete without a mega-total. In the “last five” show totals like 148 (OU–Texas) and 152/154/154 in several Georgia games. The ceiling is high, but the floor is also very under-friendly if one side’s 3s don’t fall.

• A tight spread often brings a late-game script that doesn’t automatically force an over. With a one-possession type line (DK spread ~1.5), you often get longer half-court possessions late + “don’t foul too early” coaching. You only get the full foul-fest if it’s 2 possessions with ~30 seconds left.