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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Sacred Heart -9.0 (-110)

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Rider @ Sacred Heart

Since 1/1/26 (games played from that date onward)

Score prediction + total/spread breakdown

My projected score

Sacred Heart 84 – Rider 68 (Total 146)

Spread (-9.5 Sacred Heart)

• Rider since 1/1/26: -11.8 average scoring margin (2–10 stretch), i.e., they lose by “two possessions plus emotional damage” on average.

• Sacred Heart since 1/1/26: around even in margin overall (6–7), meaning they’re not a steamroller… but against a bottom-form Rider, -9.5 is likely.

Trends & patterns since 1/1/26 (and how they relate to today’s line)

• Rider totals vs 148.5: only 3 of 12 games since 1/1 cleared 148.5 → they’re usually not helping Overs.

• Sacred Heart totals vs 148.5: 6 of 13 since 1/1 cleared 148.5 → closer to a coinflip, not an Over machine.

• Venue signal: Sacred Heart’s away games since 1/1 have been much higher scoring than their home games (home environment has played closer to the current total).

• Recent “form” totals (last 5 each): combined average total is around the low 150s—but that includes Sacred Heart road games and one-off spikes. The book total (148.5) is already accounting for that.

Player matchup breakdowns (with competition context)

Flash Burton & Zion Cruz (Rider) vs Mekhi Conner (Sacred Heart)
Rider’s offense is basically Burton + Cruz creating something from nothing; they’re the only Broncs in double figures. Sacred Heart has a real table-setter in Conner (6.3 APG) who can turn live-ball mistakes into fast offense. Against MAAC-level competition since 1/1, Rider has struggled to keep opponents out of the 70s—so if Conner controls tempo, Rider’s path to covering is “hit tough shots and don’t turn it over,” which is… a lifestyle, not a plan.

Frontcourt: Caleb Smith / Shemani Fuller (Rider) vs Anquan Hill (Sacred Heart)
Rider’s best rebounding comes from Smith and Fuller, but Sacred Heart’s Hill is both their top scorer and top rebounder. If Hill draws help, Sacred Heart’s spacing pieces (notably Gittens) become the “quiet points” that can push this toward a Sacred Heart cover without needing a track meet.

Wing scoring pressure: can Rider match Gittens + Hill?
Sacred Heart can score in more ways (Hill inside/at the line + Gittens as a secondary creator/scorer), while Rider’s scoring is narrow. That imbalance matters more against comparable-conference opponents (MAAC) than it would in weird non-con matchups—because you’re not betting on “surprise athletic gap,” you’re betting on execution and shot quality.

Ehy I am betting Sacred Heart -10.5 or better (vs Rider)

• Rider’s “since 1/1” form is a red flag. They’ve been averaging about 64.8 PPG while allowing ~76.5 PPG in that window — that’s the profile of a team that can get buried if they go cold for even 4–5 minutes.

• Rider’s average margin since 1/1 is ugly. Their results in that span imply an average margin around -12 points/game, which lines up with a market spread in the -9/-10 range. In other words: the number isn’t random; it’s tracking what they’ve been doing.

• Sacred Heart has the best “driver” on the floor for a cover: Mekhi Conner. He’s posting 6.3 assists/game, which matters in a spread game because it raises Sacred Heart’s “floor” (easier to get decent shots even if the first option isn’t there).

• Sacred Heart’s scoring options are broader. In the sources we pulled, they have two clear double-figure scorers (Anquan Hill, Dashon Gittens) plus a true facilitator—while Rider’s scoring is much narrower (mostly Burton/Cruz). Narrow offenses are more likely to stall and fail to keep up once down 8–12.

• This matchup shape favors “pull-away” scoring. Rider allows mid/upper-70s in this window, and Sacred Heart is scoring mid-70s—so Sacred Heart can cover without needing a perfect shooting night; they mostly need Rider to land near their usual 60s.

The PLAY: Illinois -110

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Illinois vs South Florida (02/15)

Matchup inputs I’m weighting

1) Starting pitching / “who’s actually available”

Illinois’ own series notes had Friday: Ben Plumley, Saturday: Regan Hall, and Sunday starter “to be determined.”
That uncertainty matters a lot for Game 3 pricing (books shade toward the team with clearer starter expectations).

2) Bullpen quality + bullpen fatigue (this is the sneaky edge)

Illinois has multiple late-inning weapons on paper, led by Zach Bates (team-high 8 saves in 2025; 2.83 ERA in 28.2 IP) and Mitch Dye, both tracked on the NCBWA Stopper watch list.

Meanwhile, South Florida has relievers with saves, but the returner ERAs are loud (Landon Yorek 6.23 ERA, 5 saves; Jorge DeCardenas 6.16 ERA).

Now add usage from the first two games:

• Game 1: South Florida used Nolan Bernard for 3.0 IP and Dominic Pontbriant for 3.0 IP after Edwin Alicea.

• Game 2 (10 innings): South Florida got 4.0 IP from Kaden Smith and 5.0 IP from Michael Senay, plus the extra-inning frame from Sean Anna.

That’s a lot of leverage innings already spent for South Florida in a 3-game opening set, which can show up as: fewer “best arms,” more middle relief, and more walks/contact late.

3) Bats / lineup shape

Illinois’ notes point to a core with pop + OBP:

• Collin Jennings (16 HR, 61 RBI in 2025)

• Nick Groves (.324/.493/.385 in 2025)

• plus other everyday production listed in the game notes.

South Florida’s best-returning bat called out is Ryan Pruitt (.281/.369/.401 in 2025), with Matt Rose also returning.

My projected winner (moneyline)

Because Illinois’ late-inning profile looks stronger and South Florida’s staff has already burned chunky innings in Games 1–2, I’m pricing Illinois slightly ahead despite the “Sunday starter TBD” risk.

Projection

• Illinois win%: 54% → fair moneyline -117

• South Florida win%: 46% → fair moneyline +117

Value vs book odds (moneyline)

Using the OddsDigger line South Florida -125 / Illinois -111.

*EV per 1 unit risked, assuming my win% is right.

Betting takeaway: Illinois -111 (or better) is the only side with value based on current information. The main “gotcha” is if Illinois’ Sunday starter ends up being a clear step down (walk-prone freshman, strict pitch limit, etc.), which would push my number back toward a true coin flip.

• Bullpen edge for Illinois (quality + roles are clearer). Illinois brings back late-inning structure with Zach Bates (8 saves in 2025, 2.83 ERA, held opponents to a .153 AVG) and Mitch Dye—both on the NCBWA Stopper watch list.

• USF’s bullpen has already been put through the spin cycle. In the first two games, USF has needed multiple multi-inning relief stints (including a 10-inning Game 2), which can thin out “best-arm availability” on Sunday.

• Illinois’ bats have the higher proven pop/OBP core. Illinois’ series notes highlight a lineup built around guys like Collin Jennings (16 HR in 2025) and Nick Groves (.324/.493/.385 in 2025). That profile plays well when bullpens get stretched.

• Momentum + game-state proof: Illinois already won the type of game that matters for a ML bet. They took Game 2 in extras—exactly the spot where bullpen depth, sequencing, and “who still has bullets left” decide outcomes.

• The price is near coin-flip; you’re not paying a premium. If books are hanging something like ~-110-ish, you’re basically betting “Illinois is slightly better today,” not trying to lay -180 into randomness.

Net: Illinois ML is a bet on late-game leverage (Bates/Dye) plus USF arm fatigue plus Illinois’ steadier offensive foundation—not on “Illinois has the obvious ace today.”