Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Nebraska 118

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Nebraska vs Stanford (college baseball) — 02/16, 17:00

What I’m using

Venue / context: neutral-site tournament game at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick (Scottsdale).

Head-to-head: basically nonexistent — only one recorded meeting (1968; Stanford 4–3).
So “H2H” is more trivia than signal.

1) Pitching (starter + staff quality)

Nebraska — projected starter

• Gavin Blachowicz is listed as Nebraska’s starter.

• In 2025 he went 3–0 with a 3.80 ERA.

Stanford — likely starter quality tier (important caveat)

I don’t have an officially published Stanford starter for this specific game in the sources available, so I’m treating it as a back-end starter / depth arm scenario (common in 4-games-in-4-days tournament setups).

Stanford’s 2025 staff shows a lot of “good bats, shaky run prevention” fingerprints:

• Joey Volchko: 6.01 ERA (15 GS, 70.1 IP)

• Matt Scott: 6.02 ERA (11 GS, 52.1 IP)

• Nick Dugan: 4.80 ERA (14 G, 8 GS)

Pitching lean: slight Nebraska, because we know Nebraska’s starter and he has a solid prior-year profile, while Stanford’s depth starters were volatile.

2) Bats (team offense + key hitters)

• Stanford team slash/OPS: .297 / .376 / .468 (.843 OPS)

• Nebraska team slash/OPS: .275 / .368 / .427 (.795 OPS)

Key Stanford bats

• Trevor Haskins: .945 OPS, 14 HR

• Jimmy Nati: .948 OPS, 16 HR

Key Nebraska bats

• Dylan Carey: .864 OPS, 8 HR

• Cayden Brumbaugh: .839 OPS

Offense lean: Stanford.

3) Bullpen / late-game conversion

Nebraska has a clearly-defined late-game weapon:

• Luke Broderick: 13 saves, 3.25 ERA, 10.8 K/9 in 2025.

For Stanford, the visible pitching lines show multiple heavy-usage arms with mid/high ERAs (above), which usually means more “bullpen adventure” in close games.

Bullpen lean: Nebraska

Projection (win probability + fair odds)

Putting it together:

• Stanford’s bats are better on paper.

• Nebraska’s known starter + clearer late-game path nudges this toward a tight game at a neutral site.

My projected win probability

• Nebraska: 49% → fair line +104

• Stanford: 51% → fair line -104

Book odds vs my projection (value)

DraftKings odds given:

• Nebraska +114

• Stanford -145

Implied win % from DK (raw, includes vig):

• Nebraska +114 → 46.7%

• Stanford -145 → 59.2%

(No-vig normalization for reference: Nebraska 44.1%, Stanford 55.9%)

Value table

Moneyline value call: Nebraska +114 is the only side that grades as +EV with this projection (small edge). Stanford -145 is priced too steep relative to a near-coinflip game.

The PLAY: Houston -115

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Washington vs Houston (Feb 16, 2026) — projection & moneyline value

My pick: Houston (slight favorite)

What I’m keying off (pitching/bats/bullpen)

• Houston’s mound form this weekend has been legit. They’ve already used Paul Schmitz (vs #21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons), Kendall Hoffman (vs Boston College Eagles), and Richie Roman (vs Manhattan Jaspers), with multi-inning relief backing it up (notably long saves/long closes).

• Houston did lose late-game certainty with reliever Antoine Jean out (elbow surgery), but they’ve covered that gap so far by spreading leverage innings around.

• Washington’s pitching options listed in their notes are Hayden Lewis, Jay Miller, Gunnar Nichols, and a “TBD” arm (likely the 4th-day starter).

  • Jackson Thomas (a key returner) posted a 4.10 ERA last season with notably low walks/HR allowed on the staff, which matters if he’s today’s starter or bulk guy.

• Bats / lineup quality: Houston returns a lot of proven production (e.g., Tre Broussard speed + pop, Xavier Perez, Cade Climie power/OBP, Tyler Cox).
  Washington’s offense is led by Casen Taggart (.331 / .468 OBP last year), but the bigger question is whether they can keep runs off the board.

Because the market is basically a coin flip, the starting pitcher mismatch is usually what decides it. With Houston already showing strong bullpen depth and Washington coming in with more “who’s the 4th-day arm?” uncertainty, I shade Houston.

Win probability + fair odds

• Houston: 55% win probability → fair line: -122

• Washington: 45% win probability → fair line: +122

Moneyline value vs DraftKings