USC at Arizona State Betting Preview
College basketball handicapper JM Sports breaks down tonight’s USC at Arizona State showdown in the Pac 12. At the time of posting, the Trojans have opened as a 5.5-point road favorite over the home Sun Devils, with the total sitting at 134 points.
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Thursday, February 3 | Pac 12 Basketball Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | USC Trojans -5.5 at Arizona State Sun Devils |
Total: | 134 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, AZ |
TV: | ESPN2 |
USC at Arizona State Analysis
Another big battle of the West Coast is set to tip off tonight at 11 PM ET as USC travels down to Arizona State to take on the Sun Devils on their home court. Arizona holds the head-to-head advantage on their home court since 1997, winning 14 of the 22 match-ups.
Although, this season USC seems to hold the advantage, they are 3rd in the Pac-12 with a 8-3 record against the conference, while propelling themselves into the top-20 in the national poll with an 18-3 record on the year.
Arizona State sits in 9th in the conference with a 2-6 record in the conference, bringing their record on the year to 6-12, but don’t disregard the fact that they have played the 5th hardest schedule in the nation.
Trojans Playing Tall
USC has really made a name this season yet again, sitting at the #19 ranking currently in the nation, with their only 3 losses coming against conference foes.
Even though USC is #32 in the country in offensive efficiency, #47 in defensive efficiency and #27 in KenPom’s overall rankings, the caliber of their opponents hasn’t held up to the standard that Arizona State is accustomed to playing this season.
The fact that they are the 3rd tallest team on average in the nation has probably played a factor in USC being a top-25 team in terms of offensive rebound percentage and being the #3 team in the country defending shots inside the arc, but this is the 8th offense that this team has seen so far ranked 200th or worse in terms of efficiency.
USC has definitely shown up to play in those games, posting a 7-0 record, holding those teams to just over 57 PPG on average and winning by a margin of more than 19 points.
USC’s offense has been tested a little more frequently, this is the 11th game against a team in the top – 100 of the defensive efficiency rankings and they have been able to prove their worth, with only Stanford finding a stop to this USC offense.
In the previous 10 games against these top defenses, USC is 8-2, winning by just over six points on average, but taking down everyone on the list not named Stanford (twice..). The only other three teams (San Diego State, UC Irvine & Arizona State) that they faced this year that found themselves on both of those lists all lost to USC, but by 14 points per game on average!
That being said this USC team is allowing under 61 PPG on average on the road and in the last two years they are 19-4 against teams shooting <= 42% on the year, alongside a 14-2 record in the previous 3 seasons against teams averaging 12 or less assists per game!
Sun Devils Good But Play Tough Schedule
Arizona State has had a rough start to the year, but there is something to be said for a team that is 6-12 on the season, but sits in the top 20% in defensive efficiency against the 5th hardest schedule in D1.
The Sun Devils are just 4-4 at home and just 2-6 against conference opponents, but 3 straight losses, and dropping 4 of the last 5 (against a difficult stretch of opponents) haven’t helped their standings recently.
Arizona State is coming face-to-face with one of the best offenses they have seen thus far (again), including the previous match-up, Arizona State is just 2-6 against teams ranking in the top 100 offensive units, in terms of efficiency, allowing under 70 PPG to those units, but still managing to lose by 8.5 points per game in those eight games.
Their offense has faced formidable opponent after formidable opponent, as this is the 14th game against defenses ranked in the top 100, even though they are just 2-11 against the prior 13 opponents, and the offense hasn’t been to the caliber of their defense.
Arizona State is 0-5 against teams that are on both of those lists and losing by almost 13 PPG against those 5 games, which includes the previous head-to-head match-up this season. The Sun Devils are holding teams to 63.1 PPG on their home court (on just 37.2% shooting), but as aforementioned, their offense hasn’t been able to hang, putting up just 62.7 PPG and shooting just 37.6% on their court.
In the last two years, they are also just 5-17 against teams shooting 45% or better on the year, 3-14 against teams that commit 12 or less TO’s per game, a 6-19 against teams that outscore their opponents by 4+ points on the year.
USC at Arizona State Prediction
With how bad both theses teams have been tonight it could get ugly in Salt Lake City. However, I do expect Utah to contain Lucas and get their first win of 2022. Take the Utes -6.5.
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USC at Arizona State Preview from GoldSheet
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Thursday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s USC at Arizona State contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
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