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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Miami Dolphins +5.5 (-110)

Obviously the Tua Tagovailoa situation is unfortunate for the Dolphins, but in the context of projecting football games, Miami landed in a pretty good spot (all things considered). Skylar Thompson has been in the Dolphins' organization for three years and he's already started three games (including a playoff game) over the course of his first two seasons. Miami played on Thursday, giving the Dolphins extra time to get him ready for this start. Tagovailoa is already back with the team, so he's likely offering words of wisdom and assistance during meetings. Let's compare this point spread to the Seahawks' point spread from Week 1 against the Broncos. Denver was starting a rookie QB (who some didn't even believe was a first round draft pick) on the road with a sub-par roster. Seattle was a -6 home favorite in that one. Two weeks later, Seattle is hosting a back-up QB who has experience and who has had extra time to prepare surrounded by one of the best rosters in the league. Seattle is a -5.5 home favorite in this one. Oddsmakers are essentially saying that a Bo Nix-led Broncos team is rated the same as a Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins team. We may certainly be wrong, but we're not quite willing to buy that one, especially with several variables pointing in Miami's favor: Extra time to prep, Seattle coming back from New England, Seattle going to overtime last week, Seattle's injury report, etc.