Welcome to SportsMemo’s guide to Same Game Parlay Strategy, where you can learn how to more intelligently apply strategies to your SGP betting.
In sports betting, a parlay bet is when a bettor makes two or more selections from different events and ties them together into one bet. A Same Game Parlay is the same concept, with the selections coming from within the same event.
This has been a relatively new addition to the digital sports betting world and is advertised relentlessly by the major sportsbooks where sports betting is legalized across the United States.
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Although each sportsbook operators tends to call their Same Game Parlay something slightly different, they are all derived from the same mechanics.
It is important to realize the pricing from the legs within a same game parlay slightly differ from when choosing a prop bet on its own as a single wager. This is an important part of understanding same game parlays and the strategies used when betting them.
Creating A Narrative To Build A Same Game Parlay
When building same game parlays, the customer must look to create a narrative for a game. Narrative building is key to determining the payouts for same game parlays.
The two most-used surface level same game parlay building strategies are stacking on minus-odds 'favorites' that are more likely to happen in tandem with one other, or, selecting fewer but more unlikely events to happen, creating a higher odds ticket.
In addition to correlated and non-correlated events, there is a way to combine both methods to add more juice to a ticket. Creating a correlated same game parlay ticket and adding one, non-correlated prop will bolster up the payout price.
Same Game Parlay Strategy #1: Stacking Correlated Pricing
The pricing per prop within a same game parlay is different compared to solo event props because correlated events have a higher chance of happening based on the results of the game and the performance of certain players.
Sportsbook operators place a higher vig on props within a same game parlay, which sacrifices the expected value on a wager compared to a wager with the same odds, but in three different events.
Stacking three or more correlated events within the same game is one strategy to build same game parlays. For an example, below is a same game parlay pricing example between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks.
Three-Leg Same Game Parlay Example:
- Item 1: Nets +3.5 (-110)
- Item 2: Spencer Dinwiddie To Score 20+ Points (-110)
- Item 3: Julius Randle Under 2.5 Made Three-Pointers (+120)
How Stacking Correlated Events Affects Same Game Parlay Pricing
The same game parlay above, which needs all of Item 1, Item 2 and Item 3 to be correct for the same game parlay wager to win, is considered correlated because if the Nets lose by less than three points or win, it is likely that one of their team's stars, in this case Dinwiddie, has a great night and conversely, one of the Knicks' stars has an off night.
It is less likely that the Nets would cover their 3.5 spread as an underdog if Dinwiddie doesn't perform to his usual level, so it makes sense to combine the Nets spread with Dinwiddie's point total prop. It is also likely for the Nets to cover their 3.5 spread as an underdog if one of the Knicks' stars has an off night from the floor, so the third leg of Randle's under 2.5 Made Three-Pointers is added.
If Item 2 and Item 3 of the same game parlay happens, it is likely that Item 1 will also be part of the equation. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but certain events are more likely to influence other events within a certain narrative than selecting random props that aren't linked in any way, shape, or form. This is crucial to keep in mind for your same game parlay strategy.
If these three events were not in a same game parlay, and was input as a three-selection parlay, a $100 wager would payout $701.82 (+702 odds).
A same game parlay of $100 with the odds of the three legs mentioned above (Item 1: -110, Item 2: -110 and Item 3: +120) has a payout $534.59. (+534 odds). These are the kinds of price differences customers will have to adjust to when messing around with same game parlays.
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Same Game Parlay Strategy #2: Stacking Non-Correlated Events
Another same game parlay strategy is using the flip side of the narrative equation, which would be selecting props within the same game that do not fit any sort of continuity narrative.
These may be some of the lottery-style same game parlay tickets people may see floating different social media avenues from time to time.
Instead of having a same game parlay price lowering than expected value, a customer can create a same game parlay that has a larger payout than expected with only a few unlikely things happening. After all, it is sports and when people think they have seen it all, they haven't.
How Non-Correlated Events Affects Same Game Parlay Pricing
Using the same game as above, here's an example of a different same game parlay, but with different events.
- Item 1: Brooklyn Nets +3.5 (-112)
- Item 2: Spencer Dinwiddie Under 19.5 points (-122)
- Item 3: Julius Randle Over 2.5 Made Threes (-148)
In the example above, the Nets still need to win outright or lose by three points or less. In theory, if Randle makes three three-pointers and one of the Nets' best players, Dinwiddie, doesn't score 20 points, this will be more difficult to accomplish.
Because these three items lend itself to building a counterintuitive narrative for the game, a customer receives higher odds because of the unlikeliness of these three items happening within the same game. To compare the pricing, a three-leg parlay of separate events with odds of -112, -122 and -148 would payout $477.17 on a $100 wager (+477 odds).
In the same game parlay format, the three legs above pays out $569.31 on a $100 wager (+569 odds). In this example, because this series of events is more unlikely, the same game parlay will boost a payout, as opposed having the pay out cut down due to likeliness of the events happening in concert.
Basic Tips For Same Game Parlays : Same Game Parlay Strategy
To go along with the two basic strategies, there is a plethora of betting tools and information that can help customers build out same game parlays on a nightly basis. A parlay calculator is an effective tool to see if the same game parlay being built is correlated or non-correlated, as the examples above prove how much each sportsbook operator's same game parlay pricing is affecting a ticket.
Following injuries and players resting also helps, as a star players' touches on the field or floor do not disappear and get distributed to other players on the team who are playing. This can be an opportunity to dive deeper into a same game parlay around the usual role players that have to do more with a star playing being out.
Overcoming Human Nature
Lastly, it is human nature to wager on overs and to watch a game and 'want' stats to happen for certain players. There are often discrepancies for player prop under selections or the negative half of props and totals as they are often glossed over when building same game parlays.
When creating a same game parlay and forming a narrative, it is second nature to assume the positives for how a customer thinks things will go during a certain game, when the largest price differences can be found in the under selections.
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