Fans can get excited for their favorite teams' upcoming season at multiple points during an offseason. There is a free agent signing period to add known quantities around the league, in addition to the respective leagues' draft night to bolster the rosters with young talent and there's the schedule release to imagine a path of potential victory and be the last team standing.
All these factors can affect how customers place season-long futures wagers if they believe all the additions to their teams and a beneficial schedule can provide good value to surpass one of the top teams in a league. Check out our guide to futures betting strategy with three excellent strategies you can try, as well as an overview of futures betting in general.
Remember! Sportsmemo offers predictions on all sorts of sports in our free picks and premium expert betting predictions sections all year long.
Overview Of Futures Betting
Future betting is picking a result for an event that occurs later along in the season. These usually come in the form of championship bets, division winner bets, conference bets and individual player awards such as most valuable player, most improved player, coach of the year, etc.
Below is the best and worst five future odds for the 2023 World Series winner.
| Team/Odds | Payout (With $100 Wager) | Team/Odds | Payout (With $100 Wager) |
| Houston Astros/+500 | $600 | Kansas City Royals/+20000 | $20,100 |
| New York Yankees/+750 | $850 | Pittsburgh Pirates/+20000 | $20,100 |
| New York Mets/+800 | $900 | Colorado Rockies/+20000 | $20,100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers/+800 | $900 | Washington Nationals/+30000 | $30,100 |
| San Diego Padres/+1000 | $1,100 | Oakland Athletics/+30000 | $30,100 |
While many future wagers are placed before the season starts, some of the more popular options remain available throughout the season with live odds.
Lines are available throughout the season so customers can wager on the same team with different odds than what they original had or add new selections.
Future Betting Strategy #1: Understand The Math
Each futures line offers an implied probability for a team winning the championship or a player winning an individual award. The higher the odds, the lower the probability. Positive odds have a probability under 50% while negative odds would have over 50%.
Most futures will feature plus odds and the following formula to calculate probability: 100 / (Odds + 100) x 100. A team with +350 odds would have a 22.22 percent chance of winning, while a team with +1000 has a 9.09 implied probability.
Later during the sports season, it is more likely to see a negative line for futures bet. This calculation is: Odds / (Negative Odds + 100) x 100. For example, the implied probability is 60% at -150.
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Future Betting Strategy #2: Narrative and Timing
The Houston Astros are coming off their most recent World Series victory against the Philadelphia Phillies and looking to win back-to-back championship trophies. A customer can currently take the Astros to win the World Series at +500 odds.
It is the consensus that the Astros will be in the thick of the championship picture during the upcoming season and are labeled the favorites to do so. The customer is interested in wagering on the Astros repeat but isn't attracted by the current odds of +500.
Futures markets changes from week-to-week, depending on how the team is performing, injuries, trades, and other variables. A customer's odds are locked at the time the wager is placed, so they wait to see how the season starts before jumping into action.
To this customer's delight, the Astros, who have had championship pedigree in baseball for the past five seasons, get off to a 5-20 start in their first 25 games. The media narratives flying around talk about a championship hangover and if losing Justin Verlander is too big of a hill to overcome.
If there is still belief in the Astros and a customer believe it's just an ugly start, this would be a good time to place the World Series future as their odds are now above +1000. This scenario during a sports season can happen in many ways for a championship-contending team and waiting for a better price compared to before the season begins can be a rewarding strategy.
We have seen it all in sports, but the projected top teams for each of the main leagues usually have a say in what happens at the end of their respective seasons. The worst-to-first scenario is rare, and the juggernauts are juggernauts for a reason. Being patient in the futures market could be a fruitful endeavor.
Futures Betting Strategy #3: Perfect Vehicle For Hedging
Hedging bets is a strategy that involves taking the opposite side than the original futures wager to secure a profit.
Because futures betting usually takes place over a long amount of time and over the course of an entire season, it would be a little deflating to wait five or six months just to have a ticket ripped up in the championship game or series without some sort of reward.
From the previous example, a customer got their Astros World Series wager in at +1200 for $100 after their horrible start. The Astros turn their season around and have made the World Series in back-to-back season, but this time against the Atlanta Braves.
The current series price is the same for both teams, as the Astros and Braves are both +100 heading into the World Series. The customer can win $1200 if the Astros win the series but if they place a $100 wager on the Braves, he or she wouldn't lose their original $100 wager on the Astros and would be at an even $0.
The customer can make a larger hedge bet is and take away more from their original wager. If he or she were to bet $300 on the Braves, they are guaranteed to make $300. If the Astros won, they would only win $900 ($1,200 original wager – $300 hedge wager).
Money Management In Futures Betting
Futures wagers can turn around a bad season for a customer into a positive result. If the example above, let's say the customer won their +1200 Astros wager and hedged on the Braves for $300. This net total of $900 winnings can overturn or cover any losses throughout the regular season.
Tying up funds in futures wagers as a hedge can change around the perspective of a sports betting season and can turn a negative into a success story. Tying up funds for a long period of time may not seem enticing but can be an insurance policy at the end of a crummy regular season.
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