Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Analysis
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports breaks down Sunday’s Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship on Sunday, January 30. At the time of posting, the Chiefs have opened as a 7-point home favorite over the visiting Bengals, with the total sitting at 54.5 points.
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Sunday, January 30 | AFC Championship Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Cincinnati Bengals +7 vs Kansas City Chiefs |
Total: | 54.5 Points |
Game Time: | 3:05pm ET / 12:05pm PT |
Arena: | Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, MO |
TV: | CBS |
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Preview
The next generation of QB’s has begun and the AFC has some names that will soon be atop the league under center. We saw Josh Allen go down last week, one of the best young quarterbacks in the league, yet that has led to a Joe Burrow & Patrick Mahomes AFC Championship game.
These two young guns are meeting for the 2nd time in the last month, but this game has a lot on the line. These two quarterbacks have some strange similarities, one dominated in college, and is slowly adjusting into the NFL, becoming one of the best up and coming young signal caller, the other struggled a little more at the collegiate level and has turned into arguably one of the best quarterbacks in the league already.
Burrow lost just three games as the QB for LSU in two years in the SEC, and has progressed into a player with some undeniable potential, even though he is 12-13-1 SU in the NFL so far, he has led a Cincinnati Bengals team to the AFC Championship for the 1st time time since 1988! Patrick Mahomes on the other hand has now advanced to his 4th consecutive AFC Championship game, and is looking for his 3rd consecutive Super Bowl appearance.
Hard to imagine that Mahomes was just 13-15 in games that he started in his collegiate career at Texas Tech! Although, one QB put up 76 TDs & over 8500 yards in college, while the other put up 91 TDs and over 11,000 yards. Interestingly enough, the QB with the better record (Burrow) was the QB with 76 TDs and over 8500 yards, but he is the one that walked away with the CFP Championship, in a perfect season.
Cincinnati Bengals
We all know that football is a team game, while the signal caller is a major asset in a championship caliber team, it takes an army to win the war. Burrow is still developing and learning, but he is learning quick, and having a weapon that you trust definitely isn’t going to hurt the situation … cue Ja’Marr Chase.
Chase set the record for most receiving yards by a rookie WR in the Super Bowl era, while also being the first rookie in history with multiple 100+ yard receiving games in the playoffs. On top of that, the Bengals have had an impressive season as a whole, they have cashed in on seven of the last eight games on the road against the spread (cashing in on six of the nine road games straight up), while also winning six straight games against the spread!
They are 8-2 against the spread against teams over .500, and winning nine of the last ten against the spread following one or more consecutive games under the total. Although this Cincinnati Bengals team has a lot on their shoulders coming from the city of Cincinnati, while this team has been impressive, the past hasn’t been as bright as the future looks to be.
Even though Cincinnati has never lost in the conference championship and have won seven of the 11 meetings against Kansas City dating back to 1992, the Bengals are just 27-80 against teams with a winning percentage between 60% – 75%, they are 10-46 on the road following a game where they put up 75 or less rushing yards, and their four losses against Kansas City all come at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs have been an entirely different team since they drafted (and started) Patrick Mahomes. Prior to the Mahomes era, Kansas City was just 1-8 in their playoff games dating back to 2001, since Mahomes took over, they are 8-2 in the postseason and averaging over 33 PPG, behind an average of 311 yards through the air and a 25-5 TD/INT ratio from Mahomes. Which is noticeably better than the 21.7 PPG they were averaging before Mahomes took over.
This Kansas City team has an endless number of weapons on both sides of the ball, which could explain a 14-1 record in the last 2 years after winning six (or seven) of the last eight games overall, and an 8-2 record against the spread in their last 10 games as a favorite (which includes 6 straight wins as a home favorite). In just the last 3 games, Kansas City has put up over 37 PPG, and averaged over 450 YPG, which is an impressive feat, even for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Yet, that could potentially be their demise, teams that average over 385 YPG on the year, and are averaging over 450+ YPG in a 3 game span are just 7-33 in the last 5 seasons, and the Chiefs are 1-15 against the spread after a 3 game span averaging over 450 YPG. On the other hand, a team that has covered the spread by seven or more points in four straight games, while having a winning record is 30-5 straight up, which has only happened 35 times in the last 38 years (back to 1983).
Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
Kansas City is currently a favorite by a TD coming into the Conference Championship, but head-to-head, Burrow holds the advantage, as the Bengals put up over 400 yards on January 2nd, resulting in a 3 point win over Kansas City, which is their only loss straight up in the last 12 weeks! Kansas City has covered 4 of the last 5 games as a favorite of 7 or more points but no game matters more than this.
Opinion: Cincinnati (+7) → We saw two of the most exciting playoffs game in recent memory on Sunday, and this game has all the making of repeating some of that excitement. While I do think Cincinnati will cover this spread, I think this game will be close, and come down to the wire, as many of this years playoff games have already. Cincinnati is 11-1 against the spread as a road underdog off a win at home in the previous head-to-head match-up!
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Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs Notes from GoldSheet
Joe Burrow exposed a flaw in the KC defense that Buffalo’s Josh Allen exploited last week to nearly knock KC from the postseason, passing for 446 yards and four TDs, though we think that perhaps the most impressive thing “LSU Joe” has done lately was hanging in there in the face of a fierce Titans pass rush that sacked him nine times last week and never flinching.
He was cool enough to complete a 19-yard pass to former Baton Rouge teammate Ja’Marr Chase in the final seconds to set up Evan McPherson’s game-winning 52-yard FG at the gun at Nashville. Speaking of Chase, he’s the same guy who caught 11 passes worth 266 yards and three scores in the first meeting, and doubtless keeping Chiefs Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo awake all week in front of the rematch.
As for Burrow, he has treated the NFL postseason as if it were the FBS playoffs two years ago, calmly completing 73% of his throws the past two weeks vs. Vegas and Tennessee, and now the first pilot in league history to complete at least 70% of his passes in his first two playoff games.
The KC pass rush, which improved markedly at midseason when DE Chris Jones returned to active duty, and Spagnuolo tweaked the schemes, did get to Burrow four times in the first meeting, but obviously didn’t rattle him, and while formidable does not quite bring the fury to pressure opposing QBs as does Mike Vrabel’s Titans stop unit. Of course, like everyone else we watched Mahomes pull his latest magic act last week against the Bills, and by this point it has become redundant to exhaust the obvious related superlatives.
Correspondingly, we would be understandably reluctant to pick the Chiefs to lose outright (indeed, Tom Brady is the only QB to have beaten a Mahomes-led KC, twice, in the postseason). But aside from a couple of games vs. outmanned Pittsburgh, the Chiefs haven’t had an easy time of it since mid-December, needing miraculous escapes to merely survive against the Chargers, Broncos (Broncos?), and Bills.
Our suspicion is that the Mahomes magic will be enough to put Andy Reid into a third consecutive Super Bowl, but it won’t come easily
Opening Line Report
Join WagerTalk handicappers Drew Martin and Teddy Covers for the Opening Line Report as they discuss the Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs AFC Championship from a betting perspective.
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