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Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Air Force +28.5 (-110)

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THE "PLUG YOUR NOSE AND BET IT" BET.
Air Force vs New Mexico — today (Feb 17, 2026)

Score projection

Total + spread breakdown vs DraftKings

Spread -27.5

• Air Force’s average margin since Jan 1 is about -26.9 per game (already basically sitting on this line), and that includes games that weren’t against New Mexico’s profile.

• New Mexico’s Feb ATS trend is shakier in some trend reports, but matchup-specific history includes Air Force sneaking covers in Albuquerque in prior years.

My read: New Mexico can absolutely clear this, but you’re betting on motivation/rotation late (garbage-time is the true apex predator of big favorites).

Trends & patterns

Since 1/1/26 scoreboards (hard results):

• Air Force since Jan 1: 0–12, scoring 57.8, allowing 84.8 (avg margin -26.9).

• New Mexico since Jan 1: 9–3, scoring 81.9, allowing 71.1 (avg margin +10.8).

Broader betting-trend feeds (context):

• Air Force: 1–11 ATS last 12, 0–20 SU last 20 road, totals OVER streak recently noted.

• New Mexico: 11–5 ATS last 16, 18–2 SU last 20 at home, totals OVER in a big chunk of recent samples.

Player matchup notes (form + fit, with competition in mind)

New Mexico offense vs Air Force defense

• Jake Hall + spacing: Hall’s efficiency/usage profile (15.8 PPG season) is the kind that punishes slower closeouts; Air Force has struggled to keep teams out of clean looks.

• Tomislav Buljan inside: 9.9 RPG with real scoring (12.3 PPG) gives New Mexico a steady “free points” option if Air Force can’t hold the glass.

• If Chris Howell sits/limited (Q): more creation falls to Albury/Haupt; it can reduce some “easy” assists but doesn’t necessarily kill scoring because New Mexico still has multiple handlers/shooters.

Air Force offense vs New Mexico defense

• Air Force’s offense since Jan 1 is 57.8 PPG—that’s the core problem. They don’t get to the line much, and when they fall behind, shot quality tends to degrade into late-clock stuff.

• Kam Sanders (11.6 PPG / 3.6 APG) is basically the engine; if New Mexico turns him over or forces him into low-efficiency pull-ups, Air Force’s scoring alternatives are thin.

• Lucas Hobin is the top scorer (11.9 PPG), but asking him to carry offense against a better, deeper Mountain West opponent is a rough assignment—especially on the road..

Bottom line: the talent/athleticism gap plus home court points toward a blowout; the only real drama is whether the blowout is fast enough to flirt with the over, or clinical enough to land under while still covering..

Why I am betting Air Force +28.5

• 28.5 is a monster number → backdoor cover lives here.
  You can be “wrong” for 35 minutes and still cash if New Mexico goes to deep bench / drains clock. Big spreads are basically garbage-time derivatives.

• New Mexico is massively favored (ML around -50000) → incentive to coast late.
  When the win is virtually locked, coaches often prioritize health + reps, not margin.

• New Mexico guard depth is dinged up (Chris Howell wrist, listed OUT in multiple injury feeds).
  Even if New Mexico still wins easily, missing a primary ball-handler/creator can reduce “run-you-off-the-floor” minutes and make it easier for the dog to trade empty possessions and hang around the number.

• Air Force’s scoring “ceiling game” is real, and it only needs to show up a little.
  ESPN’s game preview note highlights Lucas Hobin coming off a 26-point game. If Hobin (or one other Falcon) is even moderately hot, +28.5 becomes much more reasonable.

• Inflation / public bias tends to pile onto the fun team at home.
  New Mexico at The Pit is a popular public click, and big-favorite lines can creep upward because nobody wants to hold their nose and buy the ugly dog.

• The “blowout script” can actually help +28.5.
  If New Mexico jumps out big, they may slow pace (more half-court, more clock), which reduces total possessions and makes it harder to extend margin from “up 20” to “up 35.”

• Air Force injury news can be less damaging than it looks if it forces tighter rotation efficiency.
  Catchings/Frisch have been listed as questionable on some boards. If one plays limited but the remaining rotation is clean and low-turnover, the cover becomes more plausible.

The one thing you’re really betting (the “cover recipe”)

Air Force +28.5 is basically a bet that New Mexico wins comfortably but not vindictively, and that Air Force avoids the two margin accelerants:

1. turnover avalanche → runouts/dunks, and

2. getting destroyed on the glass for 15+ extra shots (Buljan types).

The PLAY: Florida -250

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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Florida Gators at Stetson Hatters — 02/17

What I’m weighting (pitching, bats, pen)

• Starting pitcher form (edge: Florida): Florida is slated to start RHP Billy Barlow, who—despite a mediocre overall 2025 line—was nasty in midweek starts (0.59 ERA, 15 K / 4 BB in 15 1/3 IP) and already threw 4 IP, 1 ER at Stetson last year.
  Stetson is slated to start RHP Zane Coppersmith, who worked mostly in relief and posted a 6.67 ERA in 2025 (and only one start). That usually signals shorter leash + earlier bullpen exposure.

• Bullpen skill / control (edge: Florida): Florida’s staff is described as returning a big chunk of innings and opened 2026 with multiple scoreless/debut relief gems.
  Stetson through 3 games: 6.92 staff ERA with 16 BB and 16 K in 26 IP (control issues = free baserunners).

• Batter form + defense (edge: Florida): Florida’s offense came out hot (fast starts, lots of extra-base damage).
  Stetson so far: .268/.381/.351, 0 HR, plus 8 errors (.931 fielding).

Win probability & fair odds (my projection)

• Florida win probability: 76%

• Stetson win probability: 24%

Fair American odds (from my win%):

• Florida -317

• Stetson +317

Book odds vs my odds + value

Book moneylines:

• Florida -250 (implied 71.43%)

• Stetson +190 (implied 34.48%)

*EV assumes my win% is correct. For -250, a $100 stake wins $40 profit; for +190, a $100 stake wins $190 profit.

Bet value call: Florida -250 shows positive value versus my fair line (you’re paying less juice than my model says is “fair”). Stetson +190 is a pass/fade at that price.