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Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| MLB | (913) Arizona Diamondbacks at (914) Cleveland Guardians: Moneyline | 3:05pm EST - Feb 23/2026 |
The PLAY: Cleveland Guardians -137
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Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:
#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)
Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)
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Arizona +109 vs Cleveland -132 — Spring Training (2/23/2026, Goodyear Ballpark)
Probable SPs: Taylor Clarke (ARI) vs Tanner Bibee (CLE).
Bullpen baseline: ARI 4.82, CLE 3.44.
Farm/depth: CLE #2, ARI #21.
Weather: warm/dry Goodyear (~80°F range)
Projected score
Full game (2 IP starter + 7 IP pen/depth)
Projected final score: CLE 5.0 – ARI 4.0 (Total 9.0)
Fair odds + value vs book (moneyline)
Book: ARI +109, CLE -132
CLE win% 60.1% → fair -151
ARI win% 39.9% → fair +151
Team | Book ML | Book implied % | No-vig % | Projected % | Fair ML | Edge vs no-vig | EV (per 1u) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guardians | -132 | 56.9% | 54.3% | 60.1% | -151 | +5.8% | +0.057u |
D-backs | +109 | 47.8% | 45.7% | 39.9% | +151 | -5.8% | -0.166u |
Result: by this projection, Cleveland -132 is the value side (price is cheaper than my fair -151). The “why” is mostly bullpen gap + farm depth gap showing up hard once the starter leash ends.
Why I am betting Cleveland ML (-132):
Big depth edge for late innings (the actual spring “fourth quarter”). Cleveland’s farm is ranked #2 while Arizona is #21, which usually means higher-quality arms/bats in innings 6–9 when the game turns into “prospects vs prospects.”
Bullpen baseline is meaningfully better. 2025 bullpen ERA: CLE 3.44 vs ARI 4.82. Even after adding spring volatility, that’s still a real gap—and it matters because bullpens (and minor-league relievers) cover most innings.
My run-based projection makes CLE a bigger favorite than the book. I projected CLE ~60% (fair around -151) vs a book price of -132, so there’s edge on the price if you trust the model assumptions.
Warm Goodyear conditions tend to increase scoring/variance, and the better pen/depth usually benefits more. If runs tick up, the team less likely to “hand out walks + bombs” late tends to gain. (This leans Cleveland given the bullpen/farm profile.)
Spring starter leash reduces “ace advantage” and magnifies organizational quality. With starters likely around ~2 innings, the game is mostly decided by depth, not the first name on the lineup card.
Net: Cleveland ML is basically a bet on organizational pitching depth (pen + farm) being the most predictive thing in February baseball, and the price not fully charging you for it.