Iowa vs Michigan State Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports offers his Iowa vs Michigan State betting preview in the Big Ten Conference for Tuesday, February 22. At the time of posting, the Hawkeyes are a 6-point home favorite against the road Spartans, with the total sitting at 153.5 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Tuesday, February 22 | Big Ten Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Iowa Hawkeyes -6 vs Michigan State Spartans |
Total: | 151.5 Points |
Game Time: | 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT |
Arena: | Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, IA |
TV: | ESPN |
Iowa vs Michigan State Analysis
This Big Ten match-up is a neck and neck race as Michigan State (6th in the Big Ten) travels to Iowa to take on the Hawkeyes (7th in the Big Ten).
Not only is the race in the Big Ten neck and neck between these two teams, but in the most recent AP poll these two teams are separated by just one spot.
Iowa just barely cracked the top-25, taking that 25th spot in the most recent poll, while Michigan State finds themselves ranked 26th, just one spot outside that AP poll.
It has been a little over a year since these teams have faced off, but the Spartans look to improve their head-to-head record, they lead the series since 1997 32-12, including an 11-8 record on Iowa’s court.
Spartans Stalling in Close Games
Michigan State finds themselves in the exact same ranking position that they started the season, coming in at 26th in the preseason AP poll.
They have continued to have an impressive season, even if their 6th place position in the conference standings don’t show that. Although, top to bottom, the Big Ten has seemingly been one of the most impressive conferences, seeing as Michigan State is 9-6 and in 6th place.
On the season, Michigan State is 18-8 straight up this year, putting up nearly 73 PPG, but basically breaking even against the spread on the season, winning games by an average of 6.2 PPG, as a six point favorite.
Yet, this Michigan State team has been on a rough stretch of games, Michigan State has only lost back-to-back games twice this season, and both of those have been within the last five games!
They dropped back-to-back games against Rutgers and Wisconsin, following a win against Indiana, they proceeded to drop another two games against Penn State and Illinois.
All-in-all posting a 1-4 record in the last five games and losing by almost five PPG as a favorite in four out of five of those games.
The Spartans come into this game with a top-30 offensive unit, in terms of efficiency, ranking 73rd in effective FG%, but ranking as a top-10 team (9th) in 3PT shooting, relying heavily on the deep ball. The defense comes in ranking 56th, while their offense ranks higher, their defense is solid in all aspects.
They are 31st in effective FG% allowed, coming in as the 32nd best team defending the deep ball, along with being the 55th best team defending shots inside the arc.
Michigan State has utilized their height (11th tallest team on average) and their depth to post a record like this against the 22nd hardest schedule in the nation.
They have played seven teams this season that rank in the top-30 in offensive efficiency, and while they are just 3-4 in those seven games, they have held some of the best offensive teams to under 70 PPG on average!
Hawkeyes Run Deep
Iowa has to be happy with their current rankings, seeing as they weren’t ranked in the top 47 in the preseason AP poll that was released.
Now they find themselves inside the top-25 (even if it is just barely) and they have posted an 18-8 record, but finding themselves one spot behind Michigan State in conference play.
The biggest advantage that Iowa holds coming into this game is the fact that they are playing this game at home, even though Michigan State holds the head-to-head advantage in recent years on Iowa’s court, this season has been something special for the Hawkeyes when playing at Carver Arena.
Iowa is 13-3 straight up at home this season putting up almost 88 PPG and holding their opponents under 70 points on average.
Their incredible play at home, backed by the fact that Carver Arena holds one of the biggest home court advantages in the country, is going to make this game difficult for Michigan State.
Iowa has been on an opposite trend as Michigan State recently, as they have won four of their last five games overall, and they are coming off just their 2nd straight up win on the season as an underdog, taking out Ohio State by 13 points as a five point underdog in Columbus!
Their schedule hasn’t been quite as difficult as Michigan State, but I can’t say that there is a Big Ten team this year that hasn’t played a difficult schedule when you look at the talent in the conference. Iowa has had some struggles on the defensive side of the ball, but offensively they have thrived.
They are on of the deepest teams in the country and there isn’t a single team in the nation that is better at protecting the ball as they rank 1st in Division I ball in lost TO percentage.
They have scored a good majority of their points from inside the arc, but they have consistently been able to score, ranking 62nd in the country in 2PT%. Even though their 18-8 record is impressive, Iowa has struggled a little bit against the top quality teams in their schedule this season.
They have played seven teams in KenPom’s top-40 overall, and their only win was the most recent game against Ohio State, posting a 1-6 record.
When you look at the offensive and defensive units of the opponents, Iowa has played seven teams that rank in the top-50 in offensive efficiency, as well as seven teams that rank in the top-50 defensively.
They have posted a 2-5 record against each of those seven teams, allowing over 79 PPG to the top offensive units, and putting up just 71 PPG against the top defensive units, a noticeable step backwards from an 83.5 PPG average on the season.
Iowa vs Michigan State Prediction
This match-up would secure a top-25 AP ranking for the winner of this game, a win for Iowa and they find themselves climbing even higher, while Michigan State would solidify a spot in the top rankings with a win against a top-25 opponent.
While I mentioned Iowa’s struggles against top-tier teams, they have played their best ball recently against those foes, while Michigan State is on their worst stretch of the season.
Another obstacle for Michigan State could definitely be injuries, Malik Hall is a name to watch as we get closer to tip-off. He is currently listed as questionable, but he is one of the most used players on the team, while he has only started four of his 26 games, he is one of just four players on this Spartans team that is used in 20%+ of offensive possessions.
Hall is Michigan State’s best player in terms of offensive rating percentage, while being their 2nd best scorer inside the arc (percentage wise) and their 3rd best offensive rebounder. Michigan State has covered two of their last three games as an underdog this season.
Even though Iowa has been one of the best teams in the country at home, they have played three top-50 offensive units at home this year (Illinois, Purdue & Michigan) and they lost all three of those games, allowing 84.7 PPG to those three teams on their home court!
Prediction: Michigan State +6 IF MALIK HALL PLAYS
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— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) February 21, 2022
Iowa vs Michigan State GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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