Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Michigan State vs Penn State prediction in the Big Ten Conference. At the time of posting, the Spartans have opened as a 2.5-point road favorite over the home Nittany Lions, with the total sitting at 129.5 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Tuesday, February 15 | Big Ten Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Michigan State -2.5 vs Penn State Nittany Lions |
Total: | 129.5 Points |
Game Time: | 6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT |
Arena: | Bryce Jordan Center in Centre County, PA |
TV: | Big Ten Network |
Michigan State vs Penn State Analysis
The 19th ranked Michigan State Spartans head to Pennsylvania to take on the Nittany Lions of Penn State in a Big 10 match-up.
Michigan State finds themselves in the top-25 in the country in the most recent AP poll, but they still are ranked just 4th in a very difficult conference.
Penn State hasn’t has quite as much luck this season against the Big Ten, posting just a 4-9 record against conference foes, ranking 11th in the conference.
These two teams have both played some of the harder schedules on the year and things aren’t getting any easier as we head towards March Madness.
Spartans Struggle Against Top Teams Lately
Michigan State has been impressive on the road this season, which isn’t they way a lot of the teams now a days like to play.
Most teams thrive in their home environment, and while Michigan State has done that, they are also 6-2 on the season away from their home court, posting the same winning percentage regardless of the site this season.
Michigan State has lost two of their six games this season in just the last five games, they have just barely outscored the last five opponents on average, not to mention the fact that they are just 1-1 on the road in the last five games, and in those games they got outscored by 9.5 PPG!
Although this season, Michigan State has held their opponents to just 40.3% shooting and allowed 66.3 PPG, but their play recently hasn’t supported the entirety of the stats and the record that this season holds.
They started the year 7-2 against teams that rank in KenPom’s top-100 (7-1 in the eight games following their opening day loss to Kansas), but since they are just 4-4 against these top teams.
They have lost four of their last six against top-75 defenses, putting up just 67.3 PPG in those six games, which is a noticeable step down from an average over 73 on the season.
Never the less, it is hard to go against Izzo as a coach, he is one of those names in the college basketball world that everyone knows and it is hard to doubt him with his track record, as the head coach of Michigan State, Tom Izzo is 45-3 on the money line against teams with a losing record!
Nittany Lions Not Giving Up
Penn State is definitely not a team that you want to sleep on, they possess a defense that can be a massive difference maker in the outcome of a game.
While their offense has only average 66 PPG this season, their defense is allowing just 65 points, while holding teams to 40% shooting in the last five games, and on their home court all season.
Penn State may only hold nine wins this year, but seven of those winners have come on that home court, posting a 7-4 record at home this season. Penn State has struggled recently, but they have been on an impressive run covering the spread.
They have won just one out of their last seven games, but they are 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 games (11-10 against the spread on the season).
While they lost their last game against Minnesota, it was one of their more impressive offensive showings, their defense could quite stop Minnesota to the level that they needed, but they shot a season high 54.7%, just the 3rd time they have shot over 50% this season, and the first time since November 18th (their 3rd game of the year).
Yet the big question is, will they be able to repeat that kind of performance against Michigan State? Minnesota hasn’t fared well against the Big 10 as I mentioned earlier, but they also have struggled against the top-tier of their opponents, which is a good chunk of their opposition when you have played the 11th hardest schedule in the nation.
Dating back to December 11th, their last game against Michigan State, the Nittany Lions have faced 12 straight teams that rank in KenPom’s top-100, they have posted a 4-8 record over that stretch (8-4 against the spread), but that is a step-up from 0-3, like the way they started this season prior to that Michigan State game.
Penn State has also eight of their nine games against offenses in the top-50, with the only win coming in a revenge game off a prior loss to Iowa, while also going just 1-4 against teams that rank in the top-50 defensively, struggling to win the big games and the resume builders.
February is the time to cash in on these big wins, but Penn State is just 2-9 on the money line in February the last two seasons combined, and it doesn’t help that they are 2-8 on the money line after four straight games committing 14 or less TO’s over that same stretch of time.
Michigan State vs Penn State Prediction
Conference play definitely gives us a lot of exciting games between teams that know each other well, Michigan State took the match-up earlier this season between these two teams.
That win added to Michigan State’s head-to-head advantage dating back to 1997, the Spartans are 32-7 against Penn State during that time, while dominating Penn State on their home court posting a 14-2 record.
More recently, when you look at the common opponents on the season, Penn State actually holds the advantage from a betting aspect (covering five of their seven games against common foes), they are just 3-4 straight up in those games against Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Northwestern, Rutgers and Wisconsin.
Against all those same opponents, Michigan State is 6-3, but just 5-4 against the spread. Penn State held these teams to 62.3 PPG in 7 games, while Michigan State allowed over 69 points on average, but the offense was the difference.
Penn State lost the games by 0.3 points on average, putting up just 62 themselves, while Michigan State was able to put up over 72 PPG in this games.
Can Penn State repeat their performance from last game? Can Michigan State continue their play on the road, and bounce back against top-100 opponents? It should be exciting as we watch and see.
While Penn State has been hot against the spread, Michigan State’s play on the road, on top of their play in the conference, I am riding the Spartan’s on this relatively small line. A bigger line and this may have been another story entirely, but Penn State hasn’t proved their abilities to win a big game of this caliber.
Prediction: Michigan State -2.5
Interested in placing a bet on the Michigan State vs Penn State contest? DraftKings is offering a $1,000 Deposit Bonus for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia, Wyoming, Arizona and Louisiana.
🤑🔥 Now that the Super Bowl is wrapped up, check out who’s running HOT over at https://t.co/W41QI6Q2p4! pic.twitter.com/Onhdseq6Oj
— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) February 14, 2022
Michigan State vs Penn State Preview from GoldSheet
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Michigan State vs Penn State contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the college basketball point spreads, moneylines, first half lines and betting percentages for all of Tuesday’s NCAAB games, including this Michigan State vs Penn State showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Live odds updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips to help you become a better sports bettor. Wee also recommend browsing through our sports betting tips video library.
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!