Murray State vs San Francisco Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Murray State vs San Francisco predictions and betting preview for the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 17. At the time of posting, the Racers are a 1.5-point favorite against the Dons, with the total sitting at 136.5 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Thursday, March 17 | NCAA Tournament Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Murray State Racers -1.5 vs San Francisco Dons |
Total: | 136.5 Points |
Game Time: | Approx. 9:40pm ET / 6:40pm PT |
Arena: | Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN |
TV: | CBS |
Murray State vs San Francisco Analysis
This match-up could be one of the most exciting match-ups in the first round of this years Madness. Murray State takes on San Francisco as they put their nationally leading 20 game win streak on the line!
People may not think that an Ohio Valley Conference winner and the 4th best team in the West Coast Conference would be an exciting one, but this one has two teams in the top-40 in the most recent AP poll pitted against each other.
These teams have combined for just 11 losses in the entirety of the season and just 3 combined losses on the road all year. Both teams rank in the top-50 offensively and defensively and both teams are looking to make a run in this tournament as an underdog seed!
San Francisco Offense Becoming Unstoppable
San Francisco has had their fair share of difficult games, playing in the same conference as BYU and Gonzaga, which has helped solidify their strength of schedule inside the top 100.
Even with the degree of difficulty in their schedule, they have posted a 24-9 record this season, but covering just 13 of those games against the spread.
They have been a 7.5 point favorite on average in all their games this season, but their offense has put up over 77 PPG, resulting in a 10 point win on average this season.
It has been a similar outcome on the road this season, their offense has taken a step back on the road, averaging 74 PPG, but the defense has taken the step up, holding teams to just 64 PPG on the road this season.
As the season has come to a close the offense of this San Francisco team has been even more impressive, they ended the season just 3-2 straight up, but in those five games, the San Fran offense averaged over 80 PPG!
Even though they allowed their opposition to shoot nearly 48% and posting 73.2 PPG themselves. Yet, San Francisco ended the season 6-2 against the spread in the last eight games.
This has been in part to an offense that ranks in the top-50 in effective FG%, including the 40th ranking in 2PT% on the season, while the defense is ranked in the top-25 in terms of KenPom’s efficiency rankings.
They are the 9th best team in the country defending against the 3PT shot, but they are just 4-4 against teams that rank in the top-50 offensively, but they are 4-1 against everyong not named Gonzaga, with three of those losses coming against the Zags, the #1 overall seed in the tournament.
On the other side of the ball they are just 2-6 against teams with top-50 defenses, but again 3 of those losses came to Gonzaga and two more against St. Mary’s.
San Fran is also just 5-18 against the spread vs. teams that outrebound their opponents by four or more boards in the last two seasons, 1-9 against the spread vs. teams that outscore their opponents by eight or more PPG this season and they have covered just 5 of the 21 opportunities following a game where they failed to cover the spread.
Yet, this offense is something to keep an eye on throughout the tournament, not only are they putting up over 77 PPG on the season, they are doing it against teams that are allowing under 69 PPG on average this year, putting up over eight points more then their opponents are accustomed to allowing.
Murray State Makes Most of Easy Schedule
Murray State may have had a little bit of an easier schedule this season, playing against the Ohio Valley Conference, but regardless, a 27-2 record, with 20 consecutive wins is an impressive feat.
On top of that record, they are 15-1 on the road this season, putting up over 81 PPG and allowing the opposition to put up just 62 PPG!
Murray State is one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the nation and rank in the top-50 in shooting percentage inside the arc, while their defense thrives on forcing turnovers and ranking in the top-25 in defense against the deep ball. Yet, the big question mark that remains is the strength of schedule, as Murray State ranks just 237th!
They are 9-2 against the spread against teams that shoot 45% or better this season, putting up 76.2 PPG in those games and allowing just 61.2 PPG to their foes, but they have played just five games against teams that finished the regular season ranking in KenPom’s top-100.
They did manage to win four of those five games, with the only loss coming to Auburn, but their other four opponents, Memphis, Chattanooga, and Belmont (twice), don’t compare to the degree of difficulty they will see when they square up against San Francisco.
Murray State vs San Francisco Prediction
Both of these teams have faced off against San Diego State and UNLV this year, and that may be the best comparison to look at between these two teams.
Michigan was 2-0 straight up and against the spread versus these two foes, and in those games, Michigan put up 73 PPG on average, shooting nearly 49%! While their defense held them to a combined 59.5 PPG and limited their offense’s to just 39.5% shooting.
Colorado State, on the other hand, had five combined match-ups against these two teams, yet they posted a record of just 1-4, and failed to cover any of the five meetings.
They posted just 55 PPG in their three games against San Diego State, and put up just 59.5 PPG in the five combined meetings on just 39.1% shooting.
Their defense allowed nearly 72 PPG, on 43.6% shooting, putting the dagger in their offensive production.
David Roddy and team, are going to have to step up big, especially on the defensive side of the ball if they are going to be able to progress deeper in this tournament and take down a Big10 foe that is looking to bounce back from their upset loss to Indiana in the tournament.
While I would side with Michigan in this game as my opinion, I would lean heavier into the total in this game. Michigan is 10-3 OU on the road this season against teams over .500, including 7-0 OU against these opponents after the 15+ game marker on the year.
Michigan has put up nearly 73 PPG on the season, and in the last five games the offense has stepped it up to over 77 points on average.
Colorado State hasn’t been a team to consistently stayed over the total, but this total is a little low on average for the Rams, their offense has posted almost 74 PPG this season and I don’t see the defense being able to slow down Michigan, if they are going to compete, I foresee a scoring battle that could run this score up.
Prediction: Over 139.5
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Murray State vs San Francisco GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Thursday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Murray State vs San Francisco contest.
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