Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara Betting Preview
College basketball content contributor Kyle Kargel gives his Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara prediction in the West Coast Conference. At the time of posting, the Gaels have opened as a 2.5-point road favorite over the home Broncos, with the total sitting at 137.5 points.
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Tuesday, February 8 | West Coast Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Saint Mary’s Gaels -2.5 vs Santa Clara Broncos |
Total: | 137.5 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Leavey Center in Santa Clara, CA |
TV: | ESPNU |
Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara Analysis
The West Coast Conference has been primarily dominated by Gonzaga as of recent years as they’ve won or shared the conference title for nine straight seasons. With only a handful of games left, both Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara look to make a run at Gonzaga to share the regular season conference title with them.
As of late, Saint Mary’s has won seven straight including a win at home against Santa Clara 73-65. Santa Clara has only generated a 5-3 record over their last eight including losses to Gonzaga by 33. With Santa Clara getting the Gaels at home for this matchup, do they have what it takes to pull the upset?
Saint Mary’s Playing at Slow Pace
The Gaels come into this matchup ranking 22nd in the country sporting a 19-4 overall record. They like to play slowly and efficiently while ranking 325th overall in the country in pace of play. They rank in the top 100 nationally in two point, three point and free throw percentage.
Driving to the rim isn’t a big part of Saint Mary’s game as they rank near the bottom of the country in free throws attempted per game as well as percentage of total points that come from free throws. Their defense is heavily relied upon as they rank 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency.
Along with their strong continuity the Gaels roll out one of the most experienced teams in the country which includes leadership by a trio of seniors. Logan Johnson, Matthias Tass and Tommy Kuhse make up over 47% of the team’s total scoring per game while averaging a combined 49.5% from the field.
These guys will be heavily relied upon to win a key West Coast Conference game on the road.
Broncos Relying Solely on Starters for Upset
The game plan of Santa Clara heading into this one should be to rely on their up-tempo pace of play. Something Saint Mary’s isn’t used to playing. The Broncos play at the 16th fastest pace in the country while ranking 38th nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency.
What’s odd about Santa Clara is that they rank 20th nationally in three point shooting percentage but shoot the three ball one of the least in the country. Up tempo play + efficient offense + effective 3 pt shooting could equal a big upset for the Broncos.
If they pull the upset, there will have to be maximum effort from junior guard Jalen Williams who averages over 34 minutes played per game along with 18.1 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.4 apg, shooting over 51% from the field. What the Broncos lack is depth, especially from the bench.
All their starters combined play an average of over 32 minutes per game which could be a big factor down the stretch if starters become fatigued.
Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara Prediction
Saint Mary’s is in the zone especially as of late and have more of a shot to catch Gonzaga for the WCC regular season crown. They still have one more game with the Zags on the schedule, and know they have to be playing their best leading up to that game to even have a shot at contending with them during that game. I think the Gael’s cover the small 2.5 spread on the road in Santa Clara.
Prediction: Saint Mary’s Gaels -2.5
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Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara Preview from GoldSheet
Maybe we were on the right track back in November when thinking that Herb Sendek’s Broncos might be the top challenger to the Zags in the WCC.
A quick 5-0 break from the gate that included a blowout win over Big 12 TCU, near where the swallows hang out in San Juan Capistrano, got them more excited at Santa Clara than they’ve been since Steve Nash’s days, though a subsequent injury to versatile 6-9 Josip Vrankic (15 ppg) presaged a month-long slump and disappearance from coverage in the Bay Area that has little time for anything else other than the Warriors and 49ers.
And the fact that this matchup with the nearby and much-disliked Gallopin’ Gaels was postponed from Jan. 6 might turn out to be a blessing for Sendek, as SCU looks to be gaining momentum in February.
The Broncos have now won three straight (all thumpers) and five of six since a bitter loss to SMC in Moraga on Jan. 20 in a game Santa Clara University seemed on the verge of stealing into the final two minutes, which was also one of six spread covers for Sendek in the past seven games.
A customary game from the usually-reliable Vrankic (who scored only 8) might have given SCU a chance at the upset last month, but recent efforts (including 20 points last Monday vs. UOP) suggests he’s up to the challenge, while 6-6 wing Jalen Williams (18.1 ppg) continues to hit better than 50% from the floor.
It’s a big week for Saint Mary’s and a look-ahead to Gonzaga on Saturday, but the Gaels have no physical advantages like in the recent past vs. SCU, and if not for G Tommy Kuhse playing his game of the year and scoring 17 in the first meeting, and hitting all of the key buckets for the Gaels down the stretch, SCU would be looking at a season sweep tonight at Leavey Center.
Though we suspect they’ll settle for a split with a rubber match perhaps in WCC Tourney semis next month in Vegas.
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the college basketball point spreads, moneylines, first half lines and betting percentages for all of Tuesday’s NCAAB games, including this Saint Mary’s vs Santa Clara showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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