Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
Sunday afternoon, the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins in a playoff Wild Card game. These teams split their season series 1-1. Who will win the rubber match? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins betting pick!
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins AFC Wild Card Betting Odds
Sunday, January 15 | NFL Wild Card Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Buffalo Bills -10.5 vs Miami Dolphins |
Total: | o/u 45 Points |
Location: | Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, NY |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Betting Preview
The Buffalo Bills lost out on the No. 1 seed, but they open up the postseason by hosting the Miami Dolphins. While it is great for Miami fans that they made the postseason, the Dolphins do not know who will be under center for this game.
If Tua can play on Sunday, I expect this to be another epic installment of this series. However, if Tua cannot suit up, 10.5 points on the spread may not be enough. This game has the potential to be great or go south really quickly for Miami.
Dolphins Go Streaking
Miami had a streaky season, but they finished 9-8 and made the postseason. Miami has had issues on both sides of the ball all season long, and unfortunately for them, they may be without starting QB Tua Tagovailioa for this game.
Miami’s offense is full of speedsters, and when they were in sync this season, they were easily one of the best units in the NFL.
However, whenever Tua was out, this offense had its problems. Miami is 31st in the NFL in rushing attempts and 19th in yards per attempt, so their ground game is nonexistent. Miami can score points and get yards in chunks in the air, but that is when Tua is playing.
With Bridgewater and Thompson, this offense is much easier to defend since the run game is not a huge threat. Miami is good in the red zone, but they struggle on third down. Again, without Tua, it is hard to get excited about this unit’s outlook on Sunday.
Defense has been an issue for Miami all season long. This unit was their strength last season, but now they struggle in coverage and gettering pressure. Where this defense excels is in stopping the run, but they are horrible against the pass.
On a per-drive basis, this defense is 23rd in time, 21st in plays, 16th in yards, and 22nd in points. Miami is 31st in passing attempts against, 27th in passing yards allowed, and 26th in touchdowns allowed through the air. Miami is middle of the pack in sacks and pressure percentage, but they blitz the 2nd most in the entire NFL.
Miami has been above average for most of the season, but their season seems to be crumbling down right when it matters. It is unfortunate, and maybe if they played a different team on Wild Card weekend, I’d feel better about them, but Miami was the last team to get into the AFC playoffs for a reason.
Super Bowl Or Bust For Bills
The Buffalo Bills had a crazy, emotion-filled last two weeks, but after hearing all the positives about Damar Hamlin, this team should be ready to rock. Buffalo comes into the playoffs looking less like the juggernaut we expect, but this is a game they match up well in.
Even though Buffalo is 2nd in the NFL in points and yards, this offense still leaves a lot to be desired. Josh Allen has thrown 14 interceptions, and a bunch of them have come in the red zone.
Still, this offense is first on third down and 9th in the red zone. On a per-drive basis, Buffalo is 17th in time, 9th in plays, 2nd in yards, and 2nd in points. When Josh Allen is on his game, he is unstoppable, but he is not invincible to the critical turnover. If Allen is disciplined, this is a Super Bowl-caliber offense.
Buffalo’s defense has also struggled at times this season. They are not afraid to give up yards, but they do their best to put the clamps on in the red zone.
Buffalo is 2nd in the NFL in red zone defense and 7th in third-down defense. On a per-drive basis, Buffalo is 29th in time, 24th in plays, 13th in yards, and 5th in points.
You can run and throw the ball on Buffalo, which is an issue for this team. However, if they get healthier on defense, which they should be, this unit could be playing its best when it matters.
Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins Prediction
Tua will probably not play, and I expect Buffalo to take full advantage of this. Miami ran the ball well on Buffalo last time they played, but with no threat of the pass whatsoever, Buffalo can shore up its run defense.
Miami is bad on defense, and Buffalo can take advantage big time. I expect this to be a statement game for the Bills, and I anticipate that they win big.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -10.5
Opening Line Report | NFL Wild Card Round
Join Drew Martin and Teddy Covers for this week’s edition of Opening Line Report as these two discuss betting angles to take across every matchup on the board including this Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins AFC Wild Card Round game!
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all NFL Playoff games, including this Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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