Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Betting Preview
Thanksgiving day, the 7-3 Buffalo Bills head to Ford Field to take on the 4-6 Lions. Will Detroit keep up its winning ways? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions Week 12 betting pick.
Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Week 12 Betting Odds
Thursday, November 24 | Week 12 NFL Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Detroit Lions +9 vs Buffalo Bills |
Total: | o/u 54 Points |
Location: | Ford Field in Detroit, MI |
Game Time: | 12:30pm ET / 9:30am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS |
Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Analysis
The Buffalo Bills just beat the Cleveland Browns in Detroit due to a snowstorm in Buffalo, so this team will have been in Detroit for 5 days leading up to this game. The Lions are coming off their third straight victory and they finally seem to have their act together.
While the Bills are arguably the best team in the NFL, they have shown they have serious flaws over the past couple of weeks. I expect a closer game than most people think, and yes, I expect a scoring barrage.
Bills Tied Atop AFC East
The Buffalo Bills went through a rough patch to start the month of November, but they still seem like one of the best three teams in the NFL. This team can win in the air, on the ground, or with their defense. While this team is a wagon, they have some issues that have been rearing their heads recently.
On offense, the Buffalo Bills have been a mixed bag. To start the season this team could not establish the run, but Josh Allen was playing at an elite level so it did not matter. Then, this team finally got the ground game going, but Allen regressed.
He was playing hero ball which lead to more turnovers and fewer points for Buffalo and it resulted in two big losses. Still, despite some of the inconsistencies from this team, the Bills are 2nd in the NFL in points for and yards.
On a per-drive basis, the Bills are 16th in time, 5th in plays, 2nd in yards, and 2nd in points. Buffalo has allowed just 20 sacks this year and Josh Allen continues to be a threat with his legs. Even when things aren’t going perfectly in Buffalo, they are still better on offense than 90% of the NFL.
The Bills defense was lights out early in the season, but due to some key injuries, this unit has also not been playing its best football.
This defense is in the bottom third of the NFL in pressure rate which is alarming for a team with so many rotational pieces on their defensive line. Still, the Bills are 4th in points allowed on defense.
On a per-drive basis, the Bills are 31st in time and 27th in plays but 16th in yards in 3rd in points allowed. Buffalo does not mind if you amass yards and they yield the 3rd best red zone defense in the NFL.
All things considered, the Bills are still a wagon. As a Bills fan, I’d be happy they are dealing with these issues now and not in December. Buffalo will be fine, and they have a good opportunity to be 9-3 after a Turkey Day win.
Lions Looking At Midseason Resurgence
After a predictable abysmal start to the season for the Lions, Detroit has won three straight and they are building momentum.
However, neither of those three teams is in the same stratosphere as the Bills. Regardless, Dan Campbell has his team playing hard, so I anticipate the Lions coming ready to play.
The Lions have been up and down on offense this season. There were times when this unit was a top-10 unit on offense, but they also had a few lackluster outings. Goff has been sacked just 15 times this season which is amazing for a QB that cannot operate outside of a clean pocket.
The Lions are 8th in points for in the NFL and 6th in yards, and they can move the sticks with the best of them. On a per-drive basis, the Lions are 20th in time and 17th in plays but 7th in yards and 10th in points.
Detroit is middle of the pack on third down but they also go for it on fourth down as much as any team in the NFL. In the red zone, Detroit is 5th in red zone percentage. While this team has dealt with injuries, and Goff is not great, the Lions’ offense has been humming, for the most part, this season.
While the Lions’ offense is great, their Achilles heel is their defense, and this unit is one of the worst in the NFL. Detroit struggles to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks, they struggle against the run, and they cannot stop opposing passers.
The Lions are last in the NFL in yards and points allowed and they are last in third-down defense. To make matters worse, this team is 26th in red zone defense.
On a per-drive basis, the Lions are 30th in drive time, 28th in plays, last in yards, and last in points. When facing one of the best offenses in the NFL, on the turf in Detroit, this is not what you like to see.
While Detroit’s mini-turnaround is nice, I do not expect a lot of progression for this team against arguably the best offense in the NFL.
Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills Prediction
Winning by two scores in the NFL is tough, no matter how big the gap in talent between two teams is. I anticipate the Lions moving the football well, but I think the Bills will move the ball at will.
The Lions are a nice mid-season story, and I like what they do on offense, but it will not be enough to keep pace with Buffalo. If this number was Detroit +10, I’d like it more, but since it is 9, I am taking the Bills to win and cover.
Prediction: Buffalo Bills -9
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 12
Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed both games the Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills in Week 12 among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 12 games, including this Detroit Lions vs Buffalo Bills showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Free NFL Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!