NFL Week 12 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick-off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 12 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 12 as of Thursday, November 17 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Buffalo Bills -10 at Detroit Lions | o/u 52.5 |
Dallas Cowboys -7 vs New York Giants | o/u 43 |
Minnesota Vikings -3.5 vs New England Patriots | o/u 43.5 |
Baltimore Ravens -4 at Jacksonville Jaguars | o/u 46.5 |
Denver Broncos -2.5 at Carolina Panthers | o/u 36 |
Washington Commanders -3 vs Atlanta Falcons | o/u 41.5 |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 at Cleveland Browns | o/u 45.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals -2 at Tennessee Titans | o/u 42.5 |
Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs Houston Texans | o/u 45 |
New York Jets -3.5 vs Chicago Bears | o.u 48 |
Seattle Seahawks -3.5 vs Las Vegas Raiders | o/u 47.5 |
Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 at Arizona Cardinals | o/u 48 |
Kansas City Chiefs -11 vs Los Angeles Rams | o/u 45.5 |
San Francisco 49ers -8.5 vs New Orleans Saints | o/u 41.5 |
Philadelphia Eagles -6.5 vs Green Bay Packers | o/u 44.5 |
Indianapolis Colts -2.5 vs Pittsburgh Steelers | o/u 39.5 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After that week’s games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 12 Odds Analysis
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions – Thanksgiving
My Projections: Bills -10.5, o/u 51
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Bills -10, o/u 52.5
I was close on both the spread and the total here. This should be a fun Thanksgiving game, but barring injuries, I do not see much movement in this line or total. Both of these offenses will be able to put up points, but the Bills should be able to suffocate Jared Goff and 10 seems like a fair spread.
Dallas Cowboys vs New York Giants – Thanksgiving
My Projections: Cowboys -6.5, o/u 44.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Cowboys -7, o/u 43
I was close with both the total and spread, and I think it is well-priced. Both of these teams are better on defense than on offense, but the Cowboys matchup better. I can see this re-opening at Cowboys -7, on point with SuperBook’s look-ahead.
Minnesota Vikings vs New England Patriots – Thanksgiving
My Projections: Vikings -4, o/u 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Vikings -3.5, o/u 43.5
Once again I am right around the number, and I think this game is priced well. The Patriots will be the best defense the Vikings have played, and depending on how they do against the Cowboys, this line may be closer to 2 points. The Patriots have a tough Week 11 game, and if their offense seems stagnant, there may be no movement.
Baltimore Ravens at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Projections: Ravens -6, o/u 47
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Ravens -4, o/u 46.5
I was close on the total but two points off on the spread. I think the SuperBook has this one correct. The Jaguars play hard and they will be able to slow down the Ravens’ run game. Four points seem fair in this matchup.
Denver Broncos at Carolina Panthers
My Projections: Broncos -3, o/u 39
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Broncos -2.5, o/u 36
I was close on the spread, but three points off on such a low total. It makes sense as the Panthers’ offense is abysmal and so is the Broncos. However, 36 is such a low total that I am inclined to believe it has to go up at least two points at re-open.
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons
My Projections: Commanders -3, o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Commanders -3, o/u 41.5
I was on point with the spread but off on the total. The Falcons are so bad on defense, and I think they get exposed again in Week 11, bringing this total higher. I do not expect much movement on the spread whatsoever.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cleveland Browns
My Projections: Buccaneers -4, o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Buccaneers -3, o/u 45.5
I was close with both numbers here, and I like my spread pricing over the SuperBooks. The Buccaneers’ run defense is not as great as it was in the past, but I do not anticipate the Browns moving the ball too often on Tampa.
Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans
My Projections: Bengals -1.5, o/u 43
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Bengals -2, o/u 42.5
I was on point with the total and the spread and I do not expect much movement. We will get a better understanding of the Bengals’ offense without Chase this week, so next week I expect minor adjustments to the total.
Miami Dolphins vs Houston Texans
My Projections: Dolphins -8, o/u 45
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Dolphins -9.5, o/u 45
I was on point with the total here, but I think the spread is a little too high. Davis Mills is much worse on the road, so that may play a factor, but I do not see Miami as this hyper-explosive team just yet. This should be closer to my number than the SuperBooks.
New York Jets vs Chicago Bears
My Projections: Jets -3.5, o/u 47
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Jets -3.5, o/u 48
I was on point with the total and slightly off on the spread. I think the Jets’ defense will give Justin Fields a ton of problems and I expect this total to come down if anything. Yes, the Bears’ defense is atrocious, but 48 is too high for such sporadic offenses.
Seattle Seahawks vs Las Vegas Raiders
My Projections: Seahawks -5, o/u 47
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Seahawks -3.5, o/u 47.5
I was on point with the total, but I am off on the spread. I expect this spread to re-open closer to my spread. The Seahawks are good while the Raiders seem to be looking at the quarterbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft. Geno and Co., even as over-a-field goal favorites, seem too low to me.
Los Angeles Chargers at Arizona Cardinals
My Projections: Chiefs -10, o/u 47
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Chiefs -11, o/u 45.5
I was close with both the spread and total here, but I want to focus on the total. The Rams are going to be abysmal on offense without Kupp and with their offensive line injuries. The Chiefs can score 30 themselves, so this total should rise.
San Francisco 49ers vs New Orleans Saints
My Projections: 49ers -6.5, o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: 49ers -8.5, o/u 41.5
I was off on both the total and the spread, and I agree with SuperBook’s numbers here. The Saints seem lost and San Fran is looking like one of the teams to beat in the NFC. 8.5 points on the road is a lot, so I can see it closing closer to 7.5, but still a high number to cover.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers
My Projections: Eagles -7, o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Eagles -6.5, o/u 44.5
I was very close with both numbers and I expect little movement in this game. The Packers may be able to run the ball all over Philly, but I do not think they can slow down this high-powered Eagles offense. I think the total will rise if anything, but the spread seems to be on point.
Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers – Monday Night Football
My Projections: Colts -2, o/u 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Colts -2.5, o/u 39.5
I was close on the spread but off on the total. With Matt Ryan under center, the Colts are more explosive on offense. The Steelers’ secondary is bad, even with T.J Watt helping by creating pressure. I expect this total to rise when it re-opens.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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