New York Giants vs Detroit Lions Betting Preview: Game Analysis
Sunday afternoon, the 3-7 Lions head to MetLife to take on the 7-2 Giants. Will the Giants improve to 8-2 and go over their win total in Week 11? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert New York Giants vs Detroit Lions Week 11 betting pick.
New York Giants vs Detroit Lions Betting Odds
Sunday, November 20 | Week 11 NFL Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | New York Giants -3 vs Detroit Lions |
Total: | o/u 45 Points |
Location: | MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | FOX |
New York Giants vs Detroit Lions Analysis
The Giants currently sit at 7-2, but they must be one of the worst 7-2 teams in NFL history. On the other hand, the Lions came into the 2022 season with hype, but so far, they have not even come close to living up to it.
With that being said, the Lions do match up well with the Giants and I expect this to be a game that comes down to the wire.
Barkley Back to Original Form
While the Giants are not uber-talented, they are well-coached and they play great complementary football. Daniel Jones has not been turning the ball over and this team makes their living with the ground game. While this team deserves credit, they are not as good as their record.
On offense, this team does a good job keeping drives alive and moving the football, but they are not scoring points at a high clip. Daniel Jones is limited in his weapons on the outside, so they continue to feed Saquon Barkley, which is a good strategy.
The Giants are 10th in yards per carry on offense, but they are 29th in net yards per attempt when throwing the football. On a per-drive basis, the Giants are 3rd in time and 6th in plays, but they are 18th in yards and 14th in points scored.
This team is middle of the pack on third down but they stall in the red zone converting just 53.8% of the time. They have done a decent job avoiding sacks, but the Giants offensive line still allows too many pressures.
Where the Giants have been most impressive is on the defensive side of the ball. Don Martindale has this team playing fast, making plays, and punching above their weight class.
This team is No. 2 in the NFL in third down defense and red zone defense, two of the most important metrics. The Giants also do a good job creating pressure, but they do not have a ton of sacks.
On a per-drive basis, the Giants are 7th in drive time, 15th in plays, 20th in yards, and 12th in points. You can move the ball on the Giants, but they make it hard for you to score, which is more important.
All and all, it is hard not to be impressed with the Giants, but it is also hard to not be skeptical. How much longer can they win despite not being truly above average? Time will tell, but they have been an exciting story this season.
Lowly Lions Defense
The Lions looked like one of the most explosive teams in the NFL to start the year, but reality and injuries set in. The Lions compete, but they lack talent on defense and are too injured on offense to be a true threat. However, the Lions should be able to move the ball on the Giants, they just need to convert their opportunities.
The Lions’ receivers are all banged up and they have been dealing with an injury to their top running back DeAndre Swift. Still, this team has shown it can be explosive on offense. On a per-drive basis, the Lions are 20th in time and 17th in plays, but they are 7th in yards and 10th in points.
Goff has been sacked just 15 times which is in the bottom four in the NFL. In the red zone and on third down, this team ranks 5th and 19th respectively, which is huge when going against a great red zone defense.
Speaking of defense, that is where the Lions are borderline inept. This team is last in the NFL in yards allowed and points for on the year and on a per-drive basis.
The Lions are 30th in yards per carry allowed and last in net yards per attempt allowed. Detroit struggles to get pressure and they are bad on third down and on defense. They will need to hope for a crucial mistake by the offense since they are not great on defense.
The Lions’ offense stacks up well with the Giants’ defense, but the Giants’ offense can be a real problem for the Lions’ defense. This unit needs to step it up for a chance of a Lions’ win.
New York Giants vs Detroit Lions Prediction
Based on this matchup, I find it hard to not like the Giants to win the game. However, given that the spread is Detroit +3, I expect the Lions to cover.
The Giants, while solid defensively, have too sporadic of an offense to truly trust them. The Lions will be able to compete if this game becomes a track meet, which it very well could. I am not overly confident, but I am riding the Lions with the points.
Prediction: Detroit Lions +3
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 11
Don’t just stop at this New York Giants vs Detroit Lions betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this clash between the New York Giants vs Detroit Lions among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 11 games, including this New York Giants vs Detroit Lions showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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