Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers Betting Preview: Game Analysis
On Sunday afternoon, the 3-3 Packers head to Washington to take on the 2-4 Commanders. Will the Packers break their two-game losing streak? Can Taylor Heinicke lead Washington to a win? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs. Green Bay Packers Week 7 betting pick.
Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, October 23 | NFL Week 7 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Washington Commanders +5 vs Green Bay Packers |
Total: | o/u 41.5 Points |
Location: | FedExField in Landover, MD |
Game Time: | 1:00pm ET / 10:00am PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | FOX |
Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers Analysis
The Packers are coming off back-to-back losses to the Jets and the Giants, but now they have a chance to get back in the win column against the Commanders. Washington will be without starting QB Carson Wentz, but having Taylor Heinicke under center doesn’t seem like too big of a downgrade.
The Packers beat the Heinicke led Commanders 24-10 in Week 6 of last season at Lambeau field. The Packers are not the same team from a year ago. However, neither are the Commanders, and neither of those statements are a compliment.
New QB Commanding the Lead
The Commanders squeaked out a win on Thursday Night Football against the Bears in Week 6, but they had no business winning that game. Wentz threw for under 100 yards, he was sacked three times, and the Commanders amassed just 214 yards on offense.
Washington ranks 29th in points for, 24th in yards, 29th in net yards per attempt, 24th in rushing yards, and dead last in percent of drives that end in points. On a per-drive basis, Washington is last in starting field position, 28th in time, 29th in plays, 28th in yards, and 29th in points.
The Commanders are 26th in third-down offense and 17th in red zone percentage. Washington has allowed 23 sacks this season and they are 30th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate.
Now, they will rely on backup Taylor Heinicke to right the ship. He had limited success last year running this offense, but now he has better-skill players but a worse offensive line.
On defense, Washington is finally playing well. This unit has so much talent that they should be better, but playing well is a start.
This unit ranks 18th in points against, 19th in yards against, 20th in net yards per attempt, 21st in rushing yards per attempt, 20th in scoring percentage, and 32nd in forced turnover.
However, on a per-drive basis, Washington ranks 2nd in time, 2nd in plays, and 10th in yards, but 17th in points.
Most of the points they allow come in the 2nd quarter of games and they have been penalized 17 times. Washington is 3rd in the NFL in third down defense and 9th in red zone defense which is both very good.
Packers Prepare For Get-Right Game
The Packers lost back-to-back games against the Jets and the Giants, and it is fair to question how good this team is. This team seems uninspired, and they lost games to opponents they should be better than. So maybe this matchup will help them get back on track.
This Packers offense is not the explosive offense we are used to, but it is still a good unit. They are 24th in points for, 15th in yards per drive, 22nd in net yards per attempt, and 12th in rushing yards per attempt, but they are 31st in scoring percentage.
On a per-drive basis, Green Bay is 12th in time, 17th in plays, 19th in yards, and 27th in points. They are 19th in third-down offense and 16th in red zone offense.
This Packers defense was supposed to carry this team, but they have not been great so far this season. Their defense is 5th in yards, first in passing yards, and 11th in net yards per attempt, but they are 27th in rushing yards, and 25th in yards per attempt.
On a per-drive basis, the Packers’ defense has the third-best field position, they are 16th in time, 6th in plays, 9th in yards, and 12 in points.
Green Bay has 14 sacks this season and they are 7th in adjusted sack rate. They have the No. 1 defense on third down and they are 9th in the red zone.
Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers Prediction
Right now, as -5.5 point favorites, it is hard not to like the Packers. This team has of course struggled, but this seems like a mismatch. Taylor Heinicke can do more with his legs than Carson Wentz, but he is much more limited as a passer.
Washington should be able to use their defensive line to create pressure on Rodgers, and that may be tough for Green Bay to overcome. If this line closes at 5.5 points, I would not feel great as dogs are 6-1 ATS with a closing line of 5.5 this season.
However, breaking down this game, I do not see how Washington overcomes this Packers team.
Prediction: Green Bay Packers -5.5 (If GB hits -6 or higher, they are a great 6-point teaser leg)
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 7
Don’t just stop at this Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this NFC clash between the Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 7 games, including this Washington Commanders vs Green Bay Packers showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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