Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
Monday night, the No. 4 seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the No. 5 seed Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round. Will Tom Brady bounce back in the postseason after his first losing season as a starter? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys betting pick!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys NFC Wild Card Betting Odds
Monday, January 16 | NFL Wild Card Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 vs Dallas Cowboys |
Total: | o/u 45.5 Points |
Location: | Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL |
Game Time: | 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | ESPN/ABC |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Preview
Neither of these two teams had storybook seasons, but both the Bucs and the Cowboys find themselves in the hunt for the Lombardi Trophy. Tampa Bay beat the Bucs all the way back in Week 1, and these two teams have changed a lot since then.
Simply put, these are two of the worst-coached teams in the NFL. They are both very talented on paper, but they are inconsistent, and they do not make winning plays in big games. This game is a crap shoot, but I think the Buccaneers are best suited to come out on top.
Cowboys Can’t Turn Ball Over
The 2022 Dallas Cowboys are the model for inconsistency. They exploded to big wins against some good teams, and they lost to or barely beat some bad teams. This comes back to poor coaching, and bad execution since Dallas is very talented on paper.
This Cowboys offense scores points with the best of them, but their offensive line, which has been amazing for years, is now the biggest problem.
Not to mention, Dak Prescott has become inconsistent with his play as well. Dallas ended the season 15th in offensive DVOA, 4th in points, 11th in yards, 5th in third-down percentage, and 1st in the red zone.
Turnovers have plagued Dallas this year. Dak has thrown a league-high of 14 interceptions this season, and in order for Dallas to win, he needs to cut down on that number.
The shining light for the Cowboys this season has been their defense. Dallas is 2nd in the NFL in defensive DVOA, and they are 5th in points allowed, 12th in yards allowed, 4th in points allowed per drive, 9th on third down and in the red zone, and 3rd in pressure rate.
Dallas struggled against the run, allowing 4.4 yards per carry, but this unit has been great. On a per-drive basis, the Cowboys are 5th in time, 8th in plays, 6th in yards, and 4th in points.
If the Cowboys can keep the flow going on offense, take care of the football, and continue to pressure opposing quarterbacks, they can beat anyone. However, if their coaching continues to be incompetent, Dallas can lose to Tampa Bay in this weekend’s game.
Buccaneers Back in Playoffs
The Buccaneers have had issues since the offseason. Tampa lost multiple starters in training camp, Brady went through a divorce, and Todd Bowles took over as head coach.
All of these issues trickled into the season, and while the Buccaneers won the NFC South and are hosting a playoff game, they are not a good team.
The Buccaneers have been middle of the pack on offense all season long, and it is not because Brady is no good. This offensive line has been in shambles, a few receivers have been hurt, and their playcalling is dreadful.
Tampa finished 16th in offensive DVOA, 25th in points, 15th in yards, 26th in points per possession, 22nd in the red zone, 21st on third down, and last in rushing yards per attempt.
That is not the making of a good offense. They finished 2nd in passing yards and first in passing attempts, but scoring just 1.6 points per drive is not a recipe for success.
The Buccaneers’ defense has been solid, but it has not played at the level it was at last season. Teams ran the ball on the Bucs, which was not the case in the past couple of seasons.
Tampa finished 13th in defensive DVOA, 13th in points, 9th in yards, 12th in points allowed per drive, and 6th on third down.
However, some negative was that Tampa finished 26th in red zone defense, 19th in yards per carry allowed, 28th in passing TDs allowed, and 26th in scoring drive percentage allowed.
Looking at the stats, it is no secret why the Bucs only won 10 games. However, they are fortunate to play Dallas in round one since the Cowboys are almost as dysfunctional as Tampa is.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction
The seemingly obviously bet is to back Dallas -2.5, but considering the circumstances, that seems too good to be true. I would not blindly back Brady, but if there were ever a game for vintage Tom to show up, it would be this game.
With that being said, we have been waiting for vintage Tom all season to no avail. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball all over the Buccaneers, but I do not think they will blow them out. The best way to bet on this game would be to back TB in a 6-point teaser.
Prediction: Tease Tampa Bay Buccaneers up to +8.5
Opening Line Report | NFL Wild Card Round
Join Drew Martin and Teddy Covers for this week’s edition of Opening Line Report as these two discuss betting angles to take across every matchup on the board including this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys NFC Wild Card Round game!
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all NFL Playoff games, including this Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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