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The PLAY: Amon-Ra St. Brown To Record Over 0.5 Touchdowns

Amon-Ra St. Brown leads all NFL receivers with four touchdown receptions through the first three weeks of the 2025 season, including two against the Bears in Week 2 and one on the road against the Ravens in Week 3. He has recorded 20 receptions for 237 yards, commanding a league-high 25.3% target share, with seven red-zone targets—second-most in the NFL. Facing the Cleveland Browns, who boast the league’s top-ranked defense (allowing 17.3 points per game) and fourth-best pass defense (147 yards allowed per game), St. Brown remains a prime candidate for continued success. Cleveland relies heavily on man coverage, deploying it at the highest rate in the NFL, which plays directly into St. Brown’s strengths. He holds a 92.9 PFF grade against man coverage (the highest among wide receivers), with a 41.7% target rate in such situations, and has surpassed 5.5 receptions in 80% of his last 10 games against man-heavy defenses. Specifically, against Cover-1 (used frequently by the Browns, ranking in the top 18), he has cleared this mark in 31 of 37 games since 2022.While Cleveland’s secondary, anchored by Denzel Ward, is formidable, they rank 13th in DVOA against WR1s and allow 120.7 receiving yards per game to the position. St. Brown’s proficiency in quick, underneath routes—his specialty—exploits the Browns’ aggressive, blitz-heavy scheme under Jim Schwartz, which generates a 50% pressure rate when blitzing. This approach often forces hurried throws, favoring possession receivers like St. Brown, particularly in the red zone. The Lions’ offensive scheme, combined with his elite slot production and dominance against man coverage, sets the stage for a likely touchdown on a third-down slant or red-zone fade. Expect St. Brown to capitalize on this matchup and find the end zone.

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