Tom's MNF Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Take Quentin Johnston To Record Over 54.5 Receiving Yards

The Miami Dolphins' defense has been consistently vulnerable this season, presenting a favorable matchup for the Los Angeles Chargers' passing game. Despite the Chargers' recent two game skid, head coach Jim Harbaugh is likely to lean on quarterback Justin Herbert to exploit Miami’s defensive weaknesses through the air, especially given the team’s injury depleted running back corps. The player in question has been a reliable target, seeing at least seven targets in every game except last week, when he efficiently caught all four of his targets, reinforcing Herbert’s trust in him. He has surpassed this receiving total in four of his five games this season, and advanced models project a strong performance against Miami’s porous defense. The current line of 54.5 appears undervalued, with projections suggesting a more accurate line around 58 yards. Given the matchup and his target volume, he’s well-positioned to exceed this total.

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The PLAY: Utah State -115

#205 Utah State vs. #206 Hawaii
Date & Time: Midnight, Sunday, October 12, 2025
Location: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI
Game Preview and Betting Analysis
Utah State Aggies (3-2 SU, 5-0 ATS)
Offense: Averaging 36.4 points per game (PPG), Utah State boasts a dynamic attack with 14 passing and 11 rushing touchdowns. They rank 60th in FBS with 168.8 rushing yards per game.
Defense: Allowing 413.0 total yards per game (114th in FBS), they’ve surrendered 11 passing and 9 rushing touchdowns. Turnovers are minimal, with only 4 giveaways.
Recent Performance: Coming off a 55-35 loss to Vanderbilt, but their ATS record is a perfect 5-0 overall (2-0 on the road).
Against Hawaii: Utah State has dominated the series, winning the last 8 meetings and covering the spread in 7 of those.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS)
Offense: Averaging 25.7 PPG (86th in FBS), with 275.5 passing yards per game (32nd nationally) but only 93.3 rushing yards per game. They’ve thrown 7 interceptions and lost 5 fumbles.
Defense: Allowing 23.5 points per game, with 368.8 total yards per game (80th in FBS).
Recent Performance: Fresh off a 44-35 upset win over Air Force, Hawaii is 3-1 ATS at home. However, penalties are a major issue, with 404 penalty yards on 45 infractions (5th-most in FBS).

Betting Insights
Line Analysis: The current line appears undervalued for Utah State, who transitioned from underdog to favorite. Their historical dominance over Hawaii (8 straight wins, 7 covers) suggests they’re being underrated.
Game Outlook: The high total points line indicates a potential shootout, but Utah State’s balanced and explosive offense (36.4 PPG) should outpace Hawaii’s less consistent attack. Hawaii’s penalty issues and turnover woes (12 total giveaways) could prove costly against a Utah State team that protects the ball well.
Prediction: Utah State’s offensive firepower and series dominance make them the likely winner, with a strong chance to cover the spread. Hawaii may struggle to keep up in a high-scoring affair.

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