We've won the past two weeks (+3.5 units) despite continued bad luck. When that turns around a HUGE week is incoming. Get this NFL package now for yet another major discount!
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | (265) Carolina Panthers at (266) San Francisco 49ers | 8:15pm EST - Nov 24/2025 |
The PLAY: San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-117)
(265) Carolina Panthers at (266) San Francisco 49ers
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 (-117)
Monday, 8:15 PM EST. The NFL really is a week-to-week league, isn’t it? Even the market routinely overreacts, which is pretty awesome for us. In this case, the market is being incredibly stupid by trusting Bryce Young. Why? Because he just had the best game of his life, against the Falcons, a team that’s dissolving by the second. And I guess we’re just supposed to forget about Carolina’s despicable 3-17 road record with Young under center? In the words of Macaulay Culkin, I DON’T THINK SO. Brock Purdy and the 49ers were clean, efficient, and picked apart the Cardinals in Week 11 on the road. We like them to roll at home here.
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | (247) New England Patriots at (248) Cincinnati Bengals | 1:00pm EST - Nov 23/2025 |
The PLAY: Cincinnati Bengals +6.0 (-110)
1:00 PM EST. The problem, whether Joe Burrow plays or not, is obviously the Bengals’ defense. They’re bad, very bad. So bad that they allowed the Jets to gain 502 yards and score 39 points a few weeks ago. Yikes. But here’s the thing.
Joe Burrow is the kind of player that completely changes a franchise. Yes, that dude above, with the frizzy wild hair and dorky smile, is a transformative player, and he has a real shot at playing this week. It’s a psychological affect more than anything else. The team trusts Burrow, he has an “OG” quality to him, not flappable, confident, and arm-talent as high-quality as any thrower in the world. When someone like that returns, and he’s a generational player, immediately the franchise’s belief exponentially rises. Even the defense plays better; we’ve seen it plenty of times before.
And here’s the thing: Flacco has not been practicing, Burrow has. Tee Higgins also recently told the media that Burrow is 100% in practice; aka he looks ready.
Against the blitz, with or without Ja’Marr Chase, Burrow is a top-3 quarterback in the NFL and you could make a strong case that he’s the best the league has to offer, especially considering the lack of defensive support and pass protection he’s received since he was drafted.
Finally, the more I’ve looked into this game, the more I think this is a sneaky trap spot for New England. The extended rest may not benefit a team that’s been running hot with momentum; if anything it could throw them out of rhythm. And the Bengals, who are 3-7, aren’t out of the playoff picture yet.
Another spoiler for free subscribers: we have the Patriots -2.5 in a teaser, so really we’re hedging this and giving ourselves a very realistic position here. Considering how good New England has been, even if Burrow plays this might be a close game but a loss for Cincinnati, thus a situation where we could cover both ways. We’re doing it.
Consultant Bio
Five years ago, right before COVID hit and forced everyone to work from home, I decided to create more content in the sports betting space. After nearly two decades of working in the federal government, I was satisfied with my security but dulled by the lack of passion I had in my 9-5 job, so I was always seeking something more. It occurred to me that, more than any other hobby, I was invested in reading/learning and consuming everything I could about sports and sports betting. Even when I was a little boy, my father brought home “pick-em sheets” for every NFL week, and I tried my hand on several occasions. I remember beating his coworkers more than once.
And even though I had been a winning bettor on my own, I never shared my style or advice. I started writing for a great site called TheOddsBreakers, which broke me onto the public scene and help earn respect from my peers (I hit 58%, 207-152 in my inaugural season as an NBA handicapper).
Then I entered the Circa Millions contest for the first time with only one entry and won 5th place overall in the 2021 NFL season (61-28-1, 68%).
Since then, I’ve written for dozens of sports betting publications and served in myriad roles with sports companies such as The33rdTeam, BetUS, and SportsWagers.ca. I also won in Circa Millions again, achieving 1st place in last year’s third quarter contest ($150k). I have my own podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, which I will resume in the 2025 NFL season. All of my records and plays have been shared transparently, where I’ve accrued 113 units in the NFL and 100 units in the NBA over four seasons, and I continue to contribute my betting thoughts/picks on Substack.