Five out of the last six weeks have been WINNERS
+28 units since Week 10!
We absolutely LOVE this slate. Six plays already loaded - let's go!
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| NFL | PIT/DET and ATL/AZ | 4:25pm EST - Dec 21/2025 |
The PLAY: DET to -1, AZ to +8.5 (-120 at BetOnline)
PIT/DET and ATL/AZ
DET to -1, AZ to +8.5 (-120 at BetOnline)
1:00 PM EST. In both cases here we see extreme value on the home teams. The Cardinals have not played well overall but Jacoby Brissett is a formidable quarterback and there’s no way the Falcons should ever be road favorites. At home it feels like a lock that Arizona will in the very least remain in this contest.
In the other game, a Pittsburgh program that’s played well and still remains in 1st place in the AFC North is a 7-point road underdog? Yes, indeed they are, and it’s very legitimate. The Lions are different team at home and they’re coming off another disappointing loss at Los Angeles. For what it’s worth, their offense looked amazing for most of that game but just couldn’t keep up after a scoreless third quarter. The Steelers always have potential to play well defensively but it looks like TJ Watt will be out again, and we just don’t see the oversimplified Pittsburgh offense keeping up with Detroit in front of their own fans.
Consultant Bio
Five years ago, right before COVID hit and forced everyone to work from home, I decided to create more content in the sports betting space. After nearly two decades of working in the federal government, I was satisfied with my security but dulled by the lack of passion I had in my 9-5 job, so I was always seeking something more. It occurred to me that, more than any other hobby, I was invested in reading/learning and consuming everything I could about sports and sports betting. Even when I was a little boy, my father brought home “pick-em sheets” for every NFL week, and I tried my hand on several occasions. I remember beating his coworkers more than once.
And even though I had been a winning bettor on my own, I never shared my style or advice. I started writing for a great site called TheOddsBreakers, which broke me onto the public scene and help earn respect from my peers (I hit 58%, 207-152 in my inaugural season as an NBA handicapper).
Then I entered the Circa Millions contest for the first time with only one entry and won 5th place overall in the 2021 NFL season (61-28-1, 68%).
Since then, I’ve written for dozens of sports betting publications and served in myriad roles with sports companies such as The33rdTeam, BetUS, and SportsWagers.ca. I also won in Circa Millions again, achieving 1st place in last year’s third quarter contest ($150k). I have my own podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, which I will resume in the 2025 NFL season. All of my records and plays have been shared transparently, where I’ve accrued 113 units in the NFL and 100 units in the NBA over four seasons, and I continue to contribute my betting thoughts/picks on Substack.