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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NCAABB	(3807) Auburn at (3808) Kansas State: Moneyline	8:00pm EST - Feb 20/2026

The PLAY: Auburn -130

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_______

Auburn vs Kansas State at 7:00 p.m. CT on Feb 20 in Arlington.

What I’m keying on (pitcher form • bats • bullpen)

Likely starters (early listing): Jake Marciano vs James Guyette.

• Marciano form: 5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K in his Auburn debut.

• Guyette form: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 1 BB, 8 K on Opening Day.

Batter form (tiny-sample warning, but still info):

• Auburn team line: .291 AVG / .378 OBP / .396 SLG (OPS .774).

• K-State team line: .396 AVG / .522 OBP / .649 SLG (OPS 1.171), and opponents’ staff ERA in their first four games was 15.19 (so the numbers are “hot,” but also schedule-inflated).

Bullpen / staff quality (so far):

• Auburn staff: 2.83 ERA, 56 K, 11 BB in 35 IP (excellent K/BB).

• K-State staff: 4.76 ERA, 40 K, 14 BB in 34 IP (more traffic, more volatility).

Projection

Given (1) a starting pitching edge toward Auburn if it’s Marciano vs Guyette, and (2) Auburn’s staff/bullpen profile looking steadier, but (3) K-State’s bats being legitimately dangerous (even with some inflation), I land at:

• Auburn win probability: 58% (proj. odds -138)

• Kansas State win probability: 42% (proj. odds +138)

Market comparison + value (your book odds)

Book: Auburn -130, Kansas State +100

Team	Book odds	Book implied %	My win %	My fair odds	Edge (pp)	EV per $100 stake
Auburn	-130	56.52%	58.00%	-138	+1.48	+$2.62
Kansas State	+100	50.00%	42.00%	+138	-8.00	-$16.00

Notes:

• The two-sided line has ~6.52% overround (vig). No-vig “true” market is about 53.06% Auburn / 46.94% KSU from those prices.

• Auburn -130 is a small positive-EV play only if you buy Auburn closer to ~58% (or higher). If lineups change (starter scratch, weather, etc.), this can flip fast.

Pick: Auburn
Value side: Auburn ML -130 (small), no value on KSU +100 at my number.

• Starting pitching edge (if Marciano goes): Marciano’s debut line is nasty—5.0 IP, 1 ER, 0 BB, 12 K. That’s the profile you want in a moneyline spot: miss bats, don’t hand out freebies.
  Guyette’s Opening Day was solid-but-hittable: 5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 8 K.

• Auburn’s staff is built to travel (K/BB + run prevention): Through Feb 17, Auburn’s pitching staff is at 2.83 ERA with 56 K vs 11 BB in 35.0 IP. That kind of strike-throwing plus swing-and-miss plays anywhere—especially in a neutral-site MLB park.

• K-State’s biggest “weak link” is the part Auburn can punish: Even in a very positive K-State weekend recap, the note is blunt: starting pitching has the most room to improve, and (outside their best start) their starters have had trouble going clean/deep.
  Auburn’s patient/slug-capable bats don’t need to be perfect if they can get into the middle innings with a lead.

• Game context favors pitching/defense over “home vibes”: This is at Globe Life Field as part of the Amegy Bank College Baseball Series—neutral site, not a true K-State home game.
  Neutral site tends to reduce cheap “crowd momentum” variance and puts more weight on the stuff/strike-throwing edge.

• Price isn’t outrageous for the edge you’re buying: -130 implies ~56.5%. With Marciano confirmed, Auburn’s “pitching-first” profile makes it easier to justify them in the high-50s than it would be for a pure offense-driven favorite.

One big caveat (because baseball is chaos in a trench coat): if Auburn doesn’t start Marciano, or if K-State can line up their best multi-inning reliever early, the “Auburn ML” case gets thinner fast.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(869) Akron at (870) Ball State: Spread	6:30pm EST - Feb 20/2026

The PLAY: Akron -13.5 (-110)

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_________

Akron @ Ball State — snapshot tables (since 1/1/26 where applicable)

Category	Akron	Ball St.
Points per game (since 1/1/26)	82.7	64.0
Points allowed per game (since 1/1/26)	72.8	72.4
Top 2 scorers (season leaders)	Tavari Johnson 20.3, Amani Lyles 14.6	Davion Hill 12.7, Armoni Zeigler 12.1
Assist leader (season leader)	Tavari Johnson 5.2 apg	Armoni Zeigler 2.8 apg
Top 2 rebounders (season leaders)	Amani Lyles 7.3, Eric Mahaffey 6.2	Armoni Zeigler 4.9, Mason Jones 4.2
Injuries	Not listed in the sources captured here	Not listed in the sources captured here

---

Score prediction + line breakdown

Projected score: Akron 78 – Ball State 62 (total 140)
That implies Akron -16 on a neutral-ish model, which is a hair stronger than -13.5, and a total meaningfully lower than 145.5.

Spread (-13.5)

• My projected margin (+16) gives Akron a modest edge vs -13.5.

• Key reason: Ball State’s offense has been stuck in the mud since Jan 1 (64.0 ppg), while Akron’s defense profile is strong (opponent shooting % allowed is excellent in the matchup stats).

• bet: Akron -13.5

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Trends & patterns since 1/1/26

Straight-up form + scoring shape

• Akron (since Jan 1 sample): +9.8 average margin; 82.7 scored / 72.8 allowed

• Ball State (since Jan 1 sample): -8.4 average margin; 64.0 scored / 72.4 allowed

• The market generally prices Akron like a hammer (and they are), but big favorites can be “win comfortably, not cover” teams.

ATS (Against the Spread) since Jan 1

• Akron ATS since Jan 1 sample: 5–8

  • Home ATS: 1–5; Away ATS: 4–3

• Ball State ATS since Jan 1 sample: 5–7–1

  • Notably, they’ve had a couple of “live dog” covers (including at Akron), but they’re also capable of getting flattened.

O/U since Jan 1

• Akron: 5 overs / 8 unders

• Ball State: 3 overs / 9 unders / 1 push

• TeamRankings situational trend snapshot also flags Ball State as a heavy-under team over larger samples (last 10 and home splits).

Home/away tendencies since Jan 1

• Ball State at home (since Jan 1): 61.4 scored / 67.2 allowed (slow, grindy profile)

• Akron on the road (since Jan 1): 77.6 scored / 69.6 allowed (defense travels)

Level of competition (context)

• This is a MAC mismatch on paper: Akron is listed 21–5 (2nd MAC) vs Ball State 8–18 (13th MAC) in the odds capsule.

• Ball State’s recent slate includes mostly conference opponents plus a buy-ish nonconference at UL Monroe; the broader results don’t suggest a hidden gear.

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Player matchup breakdowns (paragraphs)

Akron’s whole thing is pressure + structure: if Tavari Johnson is allowed to run clean offense into early-clock looks, Ball State’s defense ends up defending multiple actions per possession, and the dam eventually cracks. Johnson also creates a foul-pressure problem—when the lead guard is both the scorer and the table-setter, the underdog’s rotations get stretched thin and rebounding suffers late.

Inside, Amani Lyles is the “make you pay for being small” lever. Ball State’s main rebounders (Zeigler/Jones) aren’t high-volume glass monsters by the numbers, so Akron can plausibly win extra possessions without even shooting lights-out. If Akron is consistently getting second chances, that’s where a -13.5 favorite cover is born.

For Ball State to be live, it’s basically a Davion Hill + Armoni Zeigler shot-making script: hit enough tough ones early to prevent the game from becoming a slow suffocation. The problem is the baseline scoring output since Jan 1 has been low, and Akron’s defense indicators (opponent shooting allowed) suggest those looks won’t be comfortable. Ball State can still “hang” via pace control (especially at home), which is exactly why the under can cash even if Akron wins comfortably.

Why I am betting Akron -13.5

Massive efficiency gap (the “this is why spreads exist” point): Akron’s offensive efficiency (~1.201) vs Ball State’s (~0.958) is a canyon, and Akron’s effective FG% (~58.8%) dwarfs Ball State’s (~46.0%). Teams that score that much more efficiently can build margin without needing a crazy pace.

• Extra possessions edge (quiet spread-killer for the dog): Akron’s offensive rebound rate (~33.3%) vs Ball State’s (~23.5%) implies Akron is more likely to generate second-chance points. Second chances turn “up 9” into “up 15” fast.

• Ball State’s defense is leaky where Akron is strong: Ball State allows a high opponent eFG% (~55.3%), while Akron shoots efficiently; that’s a friendly matchup for the favorite to score consistently (and avoid long droughts that create backdoor sweat).

• Recent head-to-head baseline already favors Akron: On Jan 13, 2026, Akron beat Ball State 87–77 (10-point win) with Johnson/Lyles leading the way—so the matchup has already produced a comfortable Akron win even if it didn’t clear today’s number.

• Akron’s inside scoring showed up in that meeting: Akron emphasized points in the paint (reported 24 of 37 in-lane points in that game writeup). If Ball State can’t hold up inside again, foul trouble/paint touches can balloon the margin.

• Conference-tier gap (level of competition within the same league): Season context has Akron 21–5 and 12–1 in Mid-American Conference play, while Ball State is 8–18 and 3–10 in conference—this is the profile of a top-tier MAC team vs a bottom-tier MAC team.

• Ball State “drought potential”: With Ball State’s low eFG% (~46%), they’re structurally prone to 3–5 minute dead stretches. Those stretches are exactly how favorites cover: one or two 10–0 runs and suddenly you’re covering without even shooting nuclear.

• Market support is basically saying “Akron by ~two touchdowns”: Capsule shows Akron by about 14 (i.e., close to -13.5), so -13.5 isn’t fighting the broader consensus number.

Tiny “what can go wrong” (because backdoors are a law of nature): slower pace at Worthen Arena + late threes can keep the dog inside the number even in a no-doubt Akron win.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NCAABB	(3775) Utah at (3776) UC San Diego: Moneyline	9:00pm EST - Feb 19/2026

The PLAY: UC San Diego -108

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Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Book (moneyline): Utah -110 / San Diego -120

What I’m weighting

1) Starting pitching (biggest driver early season)

• Utah probable starter: RHP Anson McGorman (listed in Utah’s game notes for the San Diego game).

  • Early 2026 line: 0.2 IP, 7 ER (tiny sample, but… yikes).

• San Diego probable starter (not officially listed in what I could access): based on their opening-week rotation, RHP Diego Gutierrez is the best “normal rest” guess (he started Opening Day).

  • Opening Day line: 4.0 IP, 2 R, 1 H, 4 K, 3 BB.

2) Bat form / run creation

• Utah: early team slash .245/.367/.387 with 21 runs in 3 games.

• San Diego: showed real thump (7–4 Opening Day win; 14–4 win in the doubleheader finale), but also face-planted in the other half (13–0 loss). That’s a “high-variance” offense profile so far.

3) Bullpen / late-game stability

• Utah staff through 3 games: 5.19 ERA, 1.62 WHIP (again: early-season noise, but it’s not screaming lockdown).

• San Diego pen has already worn a big crooked number (Caleb Sebek gave up 6 runs in the 6th/7th of the 13–0 loss).

My call

This comes down to starter trust. If McGorman is indeed Utah’s starter, San Diego has the clearer early edge (plus home field at Fowler Park).

Projected win probability

• San Diego: 57%

• Utah: 43%

Projected fair odds (American)

• San Diego: -133

• Utah: +133

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Value vs the book

Team	Book odds	Book implied %	My win%	My fair odds	Edge (pp)	EV / 1u
Utah	-110	52.38%	43.0%	+133	-9.38	-17.91%
San Diego	-120	54.55%	57.0%	-133	+2.45	+4.50%

Best value (by this model): San Diego ML (-120) — small but real edge if the pitching setup is as expected.

Because it’s February baseball chaos, the sensitivity is mostly: if San Diego doesn’t start Gutierrez (or Utah scratches McGorman), I’d shave ~2–4% off San Diego’s win% and the edge can evaporate fast.

Pros for San Diego Toreros

• Starting pitching trust edge (as currently lined up). Utah’s listed/probable starter Anson McGorman has an ugly early 2026 line (tiny sample, but it’s the kind of tiny sample that moves a one-game projection). San Diego’s likely starter based on rotation usage, Diego Gutierrez, opened the season with a steadier outing.

• Home-field + familiar environment. The series is in San Diego at Fowler Park, which means last at-bat, routine, and generally fewer weird travel variables (especially early season).

• San Diego has already shown “blow-it-open” offense. In the opening weekend they flashed real run-scoring ceiling (including a 14-run game), which is exactly what you want when facing a starter who’s shown early command/damage issues.

• Utah’s staff profile hasn’t screamed “shutdown.” Their early staff numbers (ERA/WHIP) suggest they’re more likely to allow sustained traffic, which plays into San Diego’s higher-variance power/extra-base outcomes.

• Price is slightly favorable vs my fair line. I had San Diego around 57% (fair ~-133). Laying -120 means you’re paying less than my “true” price—small edge, but in the right direction.

• Mathy value check (using ~57% win chance):
  At -108, you win 0.9259u per 1u risk.
  EV ≈ 0.57×0.9259 − 0.43×1 = +0.098u → about +9.8% expected value per unit risk.

• Compared to “fair” odds: A ~57% team is roughly -133 fair. Getting -108 is like buying ~25 cents of discount on the favorite.

Only real landmine: if the actual starters change or one side rests key bats, this can move from “edge” to “coin flip” fast. Otherwise, -108 is simply a nicer entry than -120 on the same thesis.

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CBB	(306601) Alabama State at (306602) Bethune Cookman: Spread	7:00pm EST - Feb 19/2026

The PLAY: Bethune Cookman -5.5 (-110)

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#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

Alabama St. vs Bethune-Cookman

Category	Alabama St.	Bethune-Cookman
Points per game (since 1/1/26)	73.8	78.3
Points allowed per game (since 1/1/26)	71.2	69.2
Top 2 scorers (season leaders)	Asjon Anderson 15.7 ppg; Micah Simpson 14.4 ppg	Jakobi Heady 17.7 ppg; Doctor Bradley 11.9 ppg
Assist leaders (season leaders)	Anderson 3.6 apg; Simpson 3.5 apg	Arterio Morris 3.0 apg; Bradley 2.8 apg
Top 2 rebounders (season leaders)	Jerquarius Stanback 5.5 rpg; CJ Palesse 4.4 rpg	Bradley 7.5 rpg; (tie at 5.0 rpg) Heady / Rouzan
Injuries	None reported	R. Ward Jr. out (season)

Trends & patterns since 1/1/26 (what we can quantify cleanly)

Straight-up form (Jan 3 onward)

• Alabama St.: 6–7, +2.6 avg margin (scoring up, defense much better than early season).

• Bethune-Cookman: 10–3, +9.1 avg margin (the “best team” resume in this matchup window).

ATS / O-U patterns (best available “since-Jan-ish” slice = last 10)

• Alabama St. last 10: ATS 6–4, O/U 4–6 (slight under lean).

• Bethune-Cookman last 10: (shown on the matchup page) includes multiple covers/outs; recent results show some volatility, including two straight losses entering this game..

Home/away context

• Season home/away splits on the matchup page: Bethune-Cookman 8–1 home, Alabama St. 3–13 away.
  That supports the favorite and makes a road upset ask Alabama St. to be much cleaner with shot quality/turnovers than they usually are.

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Spread: projected line vs DraftKings

Side	Projected spread	DraftKings spread	Difference (DK − proj)
Alabama St.	+6.3	+5.5	-0.8
Bethune-Cookman	-6.3	-5.5	+0.8

Interpretation: my number says Bethune -5.5 is slightly favorable.

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Player matchup breakdowns (level-of-competition aware)

Bethune’s offense is most dangerous when Jakobi Heady (17.7 ppg) is getting downhill and forcing help, because that cascades into clean looks and foul pressure; Alabama St.’s recent defensive improvement (71.2 allowed since early Jan) means they can keep this from becoming a track meet, but it requires winning the first action and not bleeding second chances.

Alabama St. will live and die with its creator duo: Asjon Anderson (15.7 ppg, 3.6 apg) and Micah Simpson (14.4 ppg, 3.5 apg). Against a Bethune defense that’s been holding SWAC opponents to ~69 since early January, the key is whether Anderson/Simpson can generate paint touches without turning it into a turnover party (Bethune’s “comfort zone” is chaos into runouts).

Inside, the swing factor is Doctor Bradley (7.5 rpg) and Bethune’s rebounding/physicality versus Alabama St.’s main glass guys (Jerquarius Stanback, CJ Palesse). If Bradley controls the defensive board, Alabama St. loses the easiest path to points (putbacks + kickout 3s). If Alabama St. can keep it one-and-done and force Bethune into half-court possessions, that’s how you get a live dog profile—especially with Bethune coming off a couple of losses and potentially tightening up.

Depth note: Bethune is missing R. Ward Jr. for the season, so heavy-minute starters matter even more—watch late-game legs if this turns into a whistle-fest..

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Why I am betting Bethune -5.5:

• They’ve been the clearly better SWAC team this season: Bethune is 10–3 in conference vs Alabama State Hornets at 6–7.

• Home-court + legit home results: Bethune is listed 8–1 at home (that’s not just “home court exists,” that’s “home court actually cashes”).

• Market expectation matches the “fair story”: DraftKings spread is Bethune -5.5 (about -115-ish), i.e., books expect a solid but not runaway favorite—exactly where home SWAC leaders often live.

• Recent head-to-head was a blowout: Bethune beat Alabama State 69–54 on Jan 31, 2026 (15-point margin). Same opponent, same season, and the game wasn’t a coinflip.

• Matchup history favors Bethune (trend support, not gospel): multiple trend aggregators show Alabama State has struggled vs Bethune in recent meetings (SU/ATS). Use this as supporting evidence, not as your main proof.

• Alabama State’s road profile is a problem: road performance has been a consistent weakness in their trend pages—again, not destiny, but it pushes you toward the home favorite needing only a “normal” game to cover.

• Game script advantage: If Bethune gets even a modest lead, they can shrink possessions and force Alabama State into tougher half-court shots—covering -5.5 becomes more about avoiding a late collapse than winning a shootout. (This aligns with how the Jan 31 game played out.).