Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Los Angeles Dodgers -120

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#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
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LAD @ SDP — Spring Training (Feb 22, 2026)

Venue: Peoria Stadium / Peoria Sports Complex (Padres’ spring home).
Probable starters: LAD LHP Jackson Ferris vs SDP RHP Randy Vásquez.
Gametime weather: around 76°F in Peoria (sunny/clear).

Batter vs pitcher H2H since 4/15/2025

Real talk: this matchup has essentially no meaningful H2H under cutoff because:

• Ferris hasn’t faced MLB hitters in regular-season volumes (he’s a high-end minor league arm).

• Vásquez has MLB time, but the overlap vs “current spring rosters” since 4/15/2025 is still thin enough to be mostly noise.

So the projection has to be driven primarily by: spring pitcher usage + bullpen/farm quality + baseline team scoring + park/weather, not tiny H2H samples.

Inputs I’m using:

Team scoring baselines (2025 R/G)

• Dodgers: 5.09 runs/game

• Padres: 4.33 runs/game

Starting pitcher quality anchors

• Ferris (LAD): prospect with strong 2025 finish signals (plus AA run-prevention splits on Statcast page); in spring I regress him toward “promising but not fully baked MLB” → RA9 ≈ 4.6 for a short 2-IP look.

• Vásquez (SDP): MLB bio note: 4.20 ERA over 60 IP across a 12-start stretch (good “back-end starter” anchor) → RA9 ≈ 4.4 for a short 2-IP look.

Bullpen + farm depth (spring leverage = huge)

• 2025 bullpen ERA: LAD 4.27 vs SDP 3.06.

• Farm depth for “random spring innings”:

  • Dodgers farm ranked very high (#4)

  • Padres farm ranked dead last (widely summarized)

Spring translation: Padres’ top pen arms are great, but the “innings 6–9 parade of depth arms” is where LAD’s system edge matters.

So for spring bullpen/depth RA9 (not regular-season true talent), I set:

• LAD spring pen RA9 ≈ 4.6

• SDP spring pen RA9 ≈ 4.5 (elite pen reputation, but depth drag keeps it from being cartoonishly low)

Projected final score (1 decimal): LAD 5.1 — SDP 4.5

Fair odds:

• LAD fair: 56.2% → -128

• SDP fair: 43.8% → +128

The PLAY: Hawaii -175

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Tokyo Brandon has been dominating since 2020. Don’t miss your shot to cash in with Tokyo Brandon’s baseball in 2026 at 50% for the entire year, every league!

Why trust Tokyo Brandon? Because the record speaks for itself:

#1 MLB profit 2024 (+145 units)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2024 (+180u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2022 (+125u)
#1 All-Sports Profit 2021 (+225u)
#4 All-Sports Profit 2025 (+49u)

Tokyo Brandon has finished #1 overall in profit at WagerTalk among 33 cappers in 3 of the last 5 years and turned a profit in 5 of the last 6 seasons – no guessing here, just a consistent winning strategy and results. Your bankroll will thank you later, and your wallet will too with 50% off! (this includes MLB, KBO, Japanese, World Baseball Classic, Mexican baseball and EVERY other baseball bet all year)

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_______

UC Santa Barbara @ Hawai’i — today (since 1/1/26)

Comparison chart

Trends & patterns (with a real “since 1/1/26” lens)

Recent form (all games listed here are after 1/31/26)

• UCSB last five: L 85–83 OT, L 89–79, W 76–68, W 84–79, L 85–75

• Hawai’i last five: L 86–75, L 84–60, W 89–74, W 72–67, W 89–82

ATS / O-U context (season-to-date, plus location splits that matter today)

• ATS: UCSB 10–15 overall; 2–9 as away team. Hawai’i 9–14 overall; 5–9 at home.

• O/U: UCSB 14–11 overall; Hawai’i 7–16 overall; Hawai’i 3–11 at home..

Player matchup breakdowns:

Mahaney/Shaw shot quality vs Hawai’i’s defensive shell: UCSB’s offense is at its best when Aidan Mahaney is getting downhill into pull-ups or spray-out threes, and CJ Shaw’s efficiency (and physicality) punishes teams that over-help. Hawai’i’s season-long defensive numbers suggest they’re comfortable making you take “plan B” shots, so UCSB’s ability to keep turnovers down and force rotations is the hinge.

Little’s health matters more than it sounds: Miro Little is UCSB’s table-setter (4.5 apg) and a top rebounder too; if he’s limited (questionable), UCSB can still score, but their late-clock organization gets shakier—exactly where Hawai’i’s defense tends to win possessions.

Glass + paint: Sensley/Little rebounding vs Isaac Johnson’s interior gravity: Zion Sensley’s rebounding rate is elite for a guard, which helps UCSB survive against Hawai’i’s size and team rebounding. On the other side, Isaac Johnson is Hawai’i’s best “stable” scoring source inside; if UCSB keeps him off the line and avoids foul trouble, they can stay within one or two possessions all night.

Erickson/Bullock creation vs UCSB perimeter defense: Hunter Erickson drives Hawai’i’s passing volume, while Dre Bullock is a primary scorer and secondary creator. UCSB’s path is to contest without sending extra help (so Hawai’i can’t get easy kickout rhythm) and then run after misses—because Hawai’i’s away/home splits suggest they’re less comfortable when the game gets loose..

Why I am betting Hawaii:

• Home-court + travel tax is real here. Hawai’i at the Stan Sheriff Center is a different animal, and UCSB has to do the full Pacific travel + body-clock weirdness. That edge matters most in late-game execution (FTs, defensive rotations, fewer “dumb” possessions).

• Defensive gap favors Hawai’i in a 40-minute game. Season profile: Hawai’i allows 68.5 ppg vs UCSB 73.5 ppg. In a near coin-flip matchup, the team that can get two or three extra stops tends to be the ML side.

• Better “floor” scoring balance. Hawai’i’s top options (Isaac Johnson + Dre Bullock) are less “all threes, vibes, and prayers” and more steady two-level scoring; that’s useful if refs tighten up / legs are heavy / pace slows.

• UCSB’s key organizer is dinged up. Miro Little is listed questionable in the injury aggregation; if he’s limited, UCSB’s half-court offense can get sticky late, which is where home favorites win close games.

• Revenge angle with a concrete prior result. UCSB beat Hawai’i 77–62 on Jan 18, 2026. Rematches in-conference often come with sharper game-plans (especially at home), and Hawai’i has a clear “we know what failed” tape..