David Hess comes into tonight on a little heater, cashing his last two releases here at Sportsmemo, and he’s back with a CBB total he trusts. After digging into how these teams are playing and how this matchup is likely to unfold, one number stood out. It’s the play he’s backing with confidence tonight.
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| CBB | (893) Houston at (894) Kansas: Total | 9:00pm EST - Feb 23/2026 |
The PLAY: Total Under 138.5 (-112)
The Under stands on its own because this matchup almost always slows to Houston’s preferred grind, and the numbers on both sides point directly toward a low‑possession game. Houston sits 354th nationally in pace, one of the slowest teams in the country, and their Big 12 games have averaged just 140.1 ppg, driven by a defense allowing 63.9 ppg on 40.9% opponent shooting. Kansas is quicker (198th in pace), but they don’t speed up elite defensive teams, and Houston is the one program in the league that consistently forces long, late‑clock possessions and limits shot volume. Kansas leans heavily on two‑point scoring (53.3% on twos in conference play), which is exactly where Houston is strongest, and the Cougars’ rebounding edge eliminates transition chances—the easiest way to beat an Under. With both teams coming off losses, rotations tightening, and Houston’s defensive identity dictating tempo from the opening tip, Under 138.5 fits the matchup cleanly.