62% ANGLE | 4% NBA TOP-TIER TOTAL

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Under 143.0 (-110)

My college hoops totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data from KenPom, historical data from similar games (researched using the powerful SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value I perceive, and how confident I am in the play.

This matchup sets up as a strong pace-and-efficiency squeeze, with both teams projecting into a lower-possession environment than the market total suggests. Tennessee plays at an adjusted tempo of 65.3 possessions per game, while Missouri sits at 66.1, creating a blended pace firmly in the mid-60s — a range that historically struggles to support totals in the mid-140s without elite offensive efficiency.

Tennessee’s identity continues to be defense first. The Volunteers allow just 69.0 points per game while holding opponents to 40.5% shooting and only 30.4% from three, consistently forcing long half-court possessions and limiting clean perimeter looks. Their defensive profile is especially important against a Missouri team whose efficiency drops when forced into contested jump shots and extended offensive sets.

While Missouri averages over 80 points per game overall, that production has been far less stable in competitive conference environments, allowing 78.8 points per game in conference play and showing defensive regression, particularly from beyond the arc. Tennessee’s disciplined half-court defense is well equipped to slow Missouri’s transition opportunities, which are critical to the Tigers reaching higher scoring outputs.

Both teams also show balanced scoring splits between halves rather than explosive runs, another indicator of steady, grind-style possessions rather than tempo spikes. With Tennessee controlling the pace and ranking among the stronger defensive efficiency units in the country, this game projects to feature longer possessions, fewer transition chances, and reduced overall shot volume.

With tempo projected in the mid-60s and Tennessee’s defensive pressure dictating the style, the scoring environment points to a game played below market expectations.

The PLAY: Total Over 226.0 (-110)

Key Situational Angle:

Play OVER where the total is at least 220 and the home team is coming off 3 straight losses by double digits and is facing an opponent that scored at least 120 points in its last game.

Applies to Brooklyn.

38-13-1 (74.5%) since the 2021 season, going OVER by an average margin of 6.2 points!