Tony Finn

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Game of the Year Week 14: Michigan Wolverines +10.0 (-110)

In the 30 summers I have spent accessing college football programs and a team's most likely scenario for the upcoming season this is the first such campaign of a defending national champion returning less than eight starters from the title troupe.  Momentum carries a significant percentage of the formula I use when examining College Football "Regular Season Wins" investments. Momentum results from the mass and velocity of an object, which is Michigan in this example. It identifies how heavy and powerful the object/team moves and performs at in a reliable fashion. Without infusing returning player production, instead using the simpler measure of returning starters, the 2024 Michigan roster is unique, rare even.

The evidence and eventual results of my off-season studies covering NCAA football programs have consistently displayed that momentum isn't just a term used by analysts when discussing hypotheticals but something real, tangible, and important to predicting success and failure. The larger the number of returning starters that carry over into the season that follows a national championship campaign the larger the measurable force/momentum metric of said team. The Wolverines return only seven starters from a 15-0 title team. The 2024-25 Michigan player personnel are under the direction of a different head coach, have new pieces in the offensive and defensive staff, and will be judged by the performance of a first-year quarterback. The Michigan momentum metric in my formula for identifying projected wins for an upcoming NCAA FBS program is the smallest in my 30 years of accessing teams that won the Championship the prior season.  The Momentum Variable has been compared to confidence and talent but it is more than just that. The strength of Momentum is conserved and eventually transferred. What is available to carry and transfer from last year's crazy-good Wolverines team lacks what is required to win nine of the program's 12 regular season games in 2024.  

The University of Michigan has a rich tradition of higher learning and that tradition of success applies to the school's football program.  Without the space required to explain my findings from each piece of data used to access a program's upcoming season, the schools following a title-winning campaign have failed to replicate more than an average of 75 percent of the title team's championship success. If you support the Wolverines, and believe they have the head coach, talent, and momentum to exceed the Sportsbooks “Team Wins” mark of nine (Over 9 +115 / Under 9 -135 @DraftKings) why not divert from the traditional future “Regular Season Wins” wagering option. For Michigan to execute a level that would allow them to have a record of 10-2 or better in 2024-25 they will need to enter "The House that Harley Built" on November 30th and take down the Buckeyes in their backyard. I suggest pushing in on the Wolverines money line in the matchup. Michigan travels to Columbus for a Saturday Game of the Year showdown and there is a good chance you can catch Michigan at or near +300 on the moneyline. I have personally pushed in on Big Blue getting 10 points. 

The PLAY: COLLEGE FOOTBALL FUTURE: BIG 10 REGULAR SEASON WINS I

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FUTURE: BIG 10 REGULAR SEASON WINS I – Nebraska Cornhuskers Regular Season Wins 2024 Over 7.5 (+105)
3% future rating
__________

The Big Ten voted in four Pac-12 schools to assist the BIG brand in becoming the blueprint, Webster's definition of what a College Football Mega-Conference is. The Big 10 added USC and UCLA in June of 2022 followed by Oregon and Washington this past August.  The four Big 10 newbies begin rebranding themselves with a new conference logo in late August. There are still unanswered questions about how the former Pac-12 programs adjust to Big 10 football, however, it won't be long before the question is answered as well as many more. 

The four West Coast clubs will be the "elephant in the room" initially, quite likely through conference play of the school's inaugural seasons. Head coach Matt Rhule enters his second season as the Nebraska football head coach and does so with high expectations. Rhule might be the most experienced and capable head coach in the college ranks in terms of scheme diversity, both offensively and defensively. Rhule adjusted his offensive and defensive schemes when he was the head coach of Temple football and in Waco, Texas when he saved a Baylor Bears program that could well have received the “Death Penalty” for their crimes against humanity.

Coach Rhule brought in former Temple, Baylor, and South Carolina offense contributor Marcus Satterfield and immediately handed an empty playbook to his former assistant. Satterfield was Rhule’s offensive coordinator at Temple, on his staff in Waco, and had been the Gamecocks OC for two years before arriving in the Nebraska state capital.  The commitment December commitment of true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, a 5-star recruit of the 2024 class, rated as the second No. #2 recruit and quarterback talent in the current high school orbit, automatically makes the Cornhuskers a much more dynamic offense.  Initially, Raiola committed to Ohio State before jumping the Buckeye ship and becoming a Georgia Bulldog. That was before flip-flopping during the 2023 holiday season and promising his talents and skill set to Coach Rhule and the Huskers.

Rhule has the players to begin utilizing the New Shanahan Offense in Lincoln without a hitch. Whether one labels Rhule's offense a traditional play-action, a two-back West Coast hybrid, or a three (3) tight end formation with one of the trio lining up next to the quarterback … Rhule will be tossing the kitchen sink at opposing defenses in what the coach calls a "positionless" offense. The receivers, running backs, and tight ends hold defenses hostage by being completely interchangeable.  

Temple won back-to-back division titles in Rhule's third and fourth seasons. In 2017, he salvaged a "Walking Dead" Baylor program reeling from a sexual assault scandal and went from 1-11 in his rookie year to 11-3 and challenging for a Big 12 title in his third campaign.  Rhule's second season at Nebraska will be better than his first and it is reasonable to believe the Cornhuskers will sport a 7-0 record when they begin preparations for the school's biggest event inside “The Shoe” versus Ohio State. The Huskers 2024 schedule doesn't include Michigan, Penn State, or Oregon and the current Regular Season Team Wins for Nebraska of 7.5 is a position I consider a slam dunk investment to the Over. 

The Cornhuskers' best-case scenario is finishing 10-2 with the program's two losses coming against the OSU Buckeyes and USC Trojans. My understanding of Nebraska's worst-case scenario is 8-4 with the aforementioned failures against two of the nation's best. as well as falling to the Wisconsin Badgers at home and the Hawkeyes in Iowa City.  Finn's College Future Pick to Click is a Play on Matt Rhule's Huskers Over 7.5 Regular Season Team wins  

The PLAY: Missouri Tigers To Make the 2024-25 College Football Playoffs? YES (+175)

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF 2024-25 FUTURE: Missouri Tigers To Make 2024-2025 College Football Playoffs? YES! +175 

In early December 2013, the Missouri Tigers entered the Georgia Dome as SEC East Champions. The Tigers joined the SEC from the Big 12 in the 2012 season, going 5-7 and missing a bowl game for the first time since 2004. For the most part, Missouri has been an afterthought when football minds gathered in late July and early August to discuss SEC predictions and prognostications for the upcoming season.

After joining the SEC the Gary Pinkel-led Tigers earned SEC East Titles in 2013 (12-2 overall record) and 2014 (11-3). Since that 2014 campaign in which Pinkel and his players won a second straight SEC East Division followed by a Citrus Bowl Title the Tigers have had two winless conference campaigns and finished conference play only three times with winning records. Coack Eli Drinkwitz managed his roster to an 11-2 mark in the East last season finishing second to the Georgia Bulldogs.

Missouri football exceeded external expectations by leaps and bounds. Most national publications projected the Tigers to finish in 13th in the Southeastern Conference.  Drinkwitz returns a talented pool of players and combines them with one of the best recruiting classes in Missouri Football history. Add a successful haul from the transfer portal as well, annual Conference Magazines and early releases of College Football Power Polls have Missouri as a Top 10-15 ranked team for the 2024-25 season. I concur. My Spring Game rankings have the Tigers as the sixth-best team in the SEC and ranked 15th overall in the FBS. I pushed in on a CFP Future with a Yes Missouri Tigers To Make the 2024-25 CFP at +175.