2022 NBA Playoffs Preview: Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his betting preview on the Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks conference semi-final in the Western Conference. Phoenix finished first in the Wast with a 64-18 record. Dallas finished fourth at 52-30.
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Series Winner | NBA Betting Notes (by DraftKings) |
---|---|
Win in 4 | Suns (+550) Mavericks (+2800) |
Win in 5 | Suns (+300) Mavericks (+1800) |
Win in 6 | Suns (+400) Mavericks (+600) |
Win in 7 | Suns (+310) Mavericks (+800) |
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Preview
It is hard to imagine that when you look at these two teams, we see two of the most inexperienced teams in the postseason dating back to 2010. This is just their 5th combined appearance in the Western Conference Semifinals, Dallas hasn’t made it to the 2nd round of the playoffs since 2011, the year they won the title.
While Phoenix is in the 2nd round of the postseason for just the 3rd time since 2010, they accomplished that feat in 2010 and again last season, en route to their Finals appearance.
Both of these teams won their 3 combined Semifinals appearances, but that trend won’t continue this season as one of the teams is guaranteed to go home.
Dallas is just under the .500 mark in their postseason history dating back to 2010, they have posted a 32-35 record, while Phoenix has won nearly 64% of their games, even though they have played just 44 games, their 28-16 record is impressive.
Dallas Mavericks Preview
Dallas has now made the postseason 9 times since 2010, but this is already their best run since 2011. Their defense was their saving grace in the 1st round of this years postseason, while managing to take down Utah in 6 games, even without their phenom to start the series.
Now, the Mavericks are healthy, with the exception of Tim Hardaway, and they have continued their dominance that they started in the 2nd half of this years season.
Their offense has been middle of the pack to say the least in the first round of the playoffs, they ranked 12th out of 16 teams in PPG, putting up just 104.7 points on average, taking a step back from their 108 point average in the regular season.
They ranked 12th in FG% in the 1st round, shooting 44.4%, again taking a small step back from their season average. On the other hand, they have improved from 3PT range, shooting 37.1% in the 1st round (6th of 16 teams), but they ranked 19th in the regular season, shooting just 35% from deep.
They have also improved from the FT line, shooting nearly 79%, up from a 77.1% average in the regular season. Without question, Dallas has been one of the best teams this season when it comes to turnovers, they dominated in the 1st round, averaging just 8 turnovers per game, and losing less than 12 turnovers in all 6 games of the 1st round.
They were 3rd in the regular season, losing under 12 TO’s per game, but they have managed to improve in the postseason thus far.
Dallas’ defense has been the driving force behind the 1st round win, which is proven by the fact that they only averaged 104.7 PPG and managed to come away with the series win in 6 games. They ranked 3rd of the 16 teams allowing just 99 PPG to the opposition, and while they were 2nd in the regular season, they improved from their 104.7 PPG average that they allowed in the first 82 games this year.
They were the 3rd best team in the 1st round when it comes to opponent field goal percentage, allowing just 44.3% shooting, again improving from their 45.7% average on the season. Dallas has also been the most dominate team in the postseason when it comes to covering the deep ball, they allowed Utah to shoot just 27.4% from 3PT range, impressively enough, Utah averaged 36% from 3PT range during the regular season.
While this defense was hot the entire 1st round, they have steadily improved, as they held Utah under 43% shooting in 3 straight games to close out the series.
There are always questions to be asked, stats can only go so far, as the play on the court is the driving force, but as an underdog, a poor offensive team (104-108 PPG) against a good defensive team (104-108 OPPG) after allowing 105 points in back-to-back games is just 39-123 (24.1%) since 1996. Although, as I mentioned, Dallas has seemingly been a different team in the 2nd half of this season.
They have ended the year 16-7 against teams with a winning record, 10-4 against teams that are shooting 36%+ from 3PT range and 22-7 against teams averaging 23+ assists per game! Seemingly improving all year and hitting their stride at the right time, taking down the top-tier teams in the 2nd half of this season.
While they have been dominated head-to-head against Phoenix in the last 3 years, they are 18-5 revenging a same season loss against an opponent this year. On top of that, their last 2 games to end the last series were not the impressive offensively, Dallas could be off to a good start seeing as they are 17-3 after scoring under 100 points.
At the same time, their defense could’ve set them up for success as they are 10-1 after allowing 100 points or less in consecutive games.
Phoenix Suns Preview
Phoenix has been a little bit of the opposite in the 1st round, their defense has taken a small step back from what they averaged in the regular season, but on the offensive side, an already impressive offense has improved in some key aspects. The injury to Devin Booker is no longer a concern and the Suns look to continue to improve as the postseason progresses.
Their offense was already 5th in the regular season putting up nearly 115 PPG, they took a small step back in that department, but they ranked 5th still in the 1st round of the postseason putting up 111.3 PPG.
They were the top shooting team when it comes to FG% in the regular season and they continued that trend in the playoffs shooting an immaculate 52.3%, shooting 50% or better in all 6 games thus far in the playoffs! Their 3PT shooting did take a step back, shooting 31.9% in the 1st round of the playoffs, over 4% worse than the regular season, but that didn’t stop them from putting up points!
Not to mention, Phoenix ranked 3rd in turnovers lost in the 1st round, losing just 10.2 turnovers on average in the 1st 6 games of the playoffs, improving from their 12.3 average on the season.
Phoenix has needed most of, if not all, of their offensive production to win the first series against New Orleans. They allowed nearly 110 PPG on average, almost 3 points more than they allowed during the regular season, they also allowed a better shooting percentage (46.2%) and a better 3PT% (35.4%) than their defense had allowed in the regular season this year.
Yet it is easy to overlook their defensive mishaps when their offense has produced at the rate they have been. Although, the new question is, can this offense keep up their production against what is seemingly one of the best defensive units left in the playoffs.
While things can obviously change in the playoffs, the pressure is different, and it is noticeably more difficult to dominate the same opponent in consecutive games, there is no question that Phoenix has been the better team this year.
They are the #1 overall seed for a reason, and their record shows that without question! Phoenix has already beat Dallas 9 consecutive times, losing just 1 game in the last 3 seasons when taking on the Mavericks.
Although by no means is that the only reason that the Suns are the favorite in this series, they have played well against the best teams all season, winning 9 of their 11 games in the 2nd half of the season when playing teams that have won 60-70% of their games this season!
Phoenix is definitely looking to come out of the gate hot, they are 21-2 after back-to-back games shooting 50% or better, and they are 12-1 this season after 3 straight games shooting over 50%! Phoenix been beyond impressive against sub-par offensive units, going 27-4 when taking on teams that are averaging 108 PPG or less this season!
While Dallas’ defense has been top of the line in this 1st round of the postseason, the Suns are 24-7 when taking on defensive units that are allowing 108 PPG or less, and they are 11-2 against those teams in the 2nd half of the season!
Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
The Suns have lost just 10 games at home and just 10 games on the road, they have been one of the most consistent and one of the most well-balanced teams this season.
I do foresee Dallas’ defense being enough to capture 2 games in this series, but the Suns are the #1 seed for a reason, and they are the defending Western Conference Champions because they can perform under pressure.
Prediction: Phoenix Suns 4-2 (+400)
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Phoenix Suns vs Dallas Mavericks Against the Spread Notes from GoldSheet
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