USC vs Colorado State Betting Breakdown
Sportsmemo college basketball analyst Kyle Kargel gives his USC vs Colorado State predictions tipping off from the Footprint Center in Phoenix. This will be the final non-conference game for both USC and Colorado State this regular season.
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USC vs Colorado State Betting Analysis
The Jerry Colangelo Classic takes us to the Footprint Center in Phoenix for a game between USC and Colorado State. In the Rams’ most recent game, they won at Saint Mary’s by two while listed as an 11.5-point underdog.
Since starting the season 4-3 the Trojans have been on a tear winning five straight games and although most of those games were against low tier opponents, they most recently knocked off Auburn with the game listed as a pick ‘em.
Colorado State has dropped two games recently to instate rivals Colorado and Northern Colorado but they seem rejuvenated heading into their game against USC. Can they cover as 2.5-point underdogs or potentially even pull off the outright win? Let’s dive into some data.
Rams Getting Revved Back Up
The Rams offense can be labeled as underrated so far this season. They run one of the fastest offenses in the country ranking 72nd in average possession length and also rank in the top 15 in both effective field goal percentage and turnover percentage.
Most thought this team would have a hard time re-adjusting after losing David Roddy to the NBA draft which has been the case at times, but they seem to be turning a corner. What helped them turn that corner was the return of Isaiah Stevens who has averaged 19 ppg and 5.2 apg in the last five games.
He’s been efficient scoring those 19 points shooting 60% from the field, 84% from the free throw line and an astounding 60% from 3pt range as well. As a team, Colorado State is efficient when shooting nationally ranking 48th in 3pt field goal percentage and 22nd in 2pt field goal percentage.
This makes sense as the Rams’ top six scorers all shoot 50% or higher from the field per game. On defense the Rams aren’t as good as their offense but still post solid metrics ranking 138th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 51st in allowing offensive rebounds and 154th in defending the 3pt shot.
The biggest achilles heal for Colorado State is their lack of offensive rebounding ranking second to last nationally which means has forced the Rams to be as efficient as they are on the offensive end.
Trojans Take Advantage Of Their Size
That lack of offensive rebounding could be a problem against a Trojans team that’s 5th in the nation as far as average height is concerned across the roster. That charge inside is led by 6’11 Joshua Morgan averaging 8.8 ppg, 5.8 rpg and a whopping 3.1 blocks per game which is 3rd in the nation.
Guard Boogie Ellis continues to be the team’s go-to player on offense putting up 28 points in their 74-71 win over Auburn. Another player to keep an eye on is Drew Peterson filling up the stat sheet on a nightly basis.
On the season he averages 13.3 ppg, 7.3 rpg and 5.9 apg while shooting 43% from the field. What could be an interesting development is how the Trojans deploy a 3pt shooting attack. The Rams are one of the worst in the nation in giving up 3pt attempts but the Trojans don’t take many as they rely on their inside play on offense.
To put it in perspective, the Trojans knocked off the Tigers while only making four 3pt attempts. They know they can win games focusing on inside play, but with how vulnerable the Rams are to giving up open 3pt shots it’ll be interesting to see if Ellis, Peterson or another Trojans’ player takes advantage of those opportunities.
USC vs Colorado State Prediction
The total of this game is sitting at an even 141 right now and both teams like to play up-tempo. Although on the defensive end both like to slow their opponents down, I have a hard time believing the Rams are going to want to do that against the Trojans allowing USC’s big men to get back in time and set up on defense.
Look for the total to go over 141 in what should be an exciting game to conclude non-conference play for both teams before heading into their respective conference schedules.
Prediction: Over 141 Points Scored
Betting Odds For USC vs Colorado State
Wednesday, December 21 | College Basketball Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | USC Trojans -2.5 vs Colorado State |
Total: | 141 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Footprint Center in Phoenix, AZ (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | Pac 12 Network |
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College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Wednesday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s USC vs Colorado State contest.
Happy Hour Tip-Off Show
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The Happy Hour Tip-Off Show will broadcast Monday through Friday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT. Pull up a barstool and join us as we break down tonight’s college basketball card, including possibly this USC vs Colorado State clash, from a sports betting perspective.
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