Arizona vs Arizona State Betting Preview
College basketball handicapper JM Sports gives his Arizona vs Arizona State prediction in the Pac-12 Conference. At the time of posting, the Wildcats have opened as a 13-point road favorite over the home Sun Devils, with the total sitting at 144 points.
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Monday, February 7 | Pac-12 Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Arizona Wildcats -13 vs Arizona State Sun Devils |
Total: | 144 Points |
Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
Arena: | Desert Financial Arena in Tempe, AZ |
TV: | FS1 |
Arizona vs Arizona State Analysis
This Pac-12 battle commences in an inner-state rivalry as the Wildcats from Arizona head on the road to take on the Sun Devils of Arizona State. Arizona has been one of the most dominating forces this season and in the recent past.
Not only is Arizona 30-13 against Arizona State dating back to 1997, but they are 19-2 on the season, including a 9-1 record in conference play thus far! Arizona State has had their struggles, but it is hard to blame them when they have played the 2nd hardest schedule in the country.
Regardless, Arizona State is 7-13 on the year, including just two wins in the last nine games and a 3-7 record in conference play. Both of these defensive units have been impressive lately, but which offense will really show up?
Wildcats Winning With Efficiency
Arizona sits in the top 10 in the country in the AP standings for a reason, even on a 8-1 run in the last nine games, the Wildcats found themselves falling in the rankings.
In their five games against teams below the #200 ranking in KenPom’s offensive efficiency rankings, they are an impressive 5-0, but not only is the record spotless, they are winning those games by over 26 points on average, putting up dominating numbers!
Arizona State does show up with a solid defensive unit to take on this Arizona offense that has absolutely dominated on the inside, with the help of the 2nd tallest team average in the country.
Even against the 10 teams that they have played in the top-100 in terms of defense, they are 8-2 and putting up almost 77 PPG. This team is a top-15 unit on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, they are one of the fastest paced teams in the country and they continuously pile on the points, while their defense neutralizes even the most powerful offensive units.
Arizona has held five of their last six opponents under 39% shooting (including four of those opponents 35.2% or worse) and they have held their conference opponents under 38% shooting on average!
On the attack, they are averaging almost 85 PPG this season, one of the best numbers in the league, and the situation hasn’t mattered, they are putting up 81 PPG on the road this season and averaging 80 PPG against the Pac-12!
Not only are they putting up monstrous numbers on the offensive end, but they are doing it against opponents that are allowing just 68.8 PPG on average, 16.1 PPG less than what Arizona has managed to post on the opposition.
Sun Devils Coming Off Huge Win Against UCLA
Arizona State is ready to stand their ground and take on Arizona on their home court. The Sun Devils are sitting at .500 on their own court, with a 5-5 record, slightly better then their 7-13 record on the season.
Although, Arizona State has won just one of their last five games and two of their last nine overall, struggling in recent games and not helping their conference record that currently sits at 3-7.
There is something to be said about this team with the schedule they have faced, if you look at KenPom’s overall rankings, the Sun Devils have faced off against nine teams that rank in the top 50 overall, while they have lost eight out of those nine games, their lone win came in their last game, the 3OT thriller against UCLA.
Yet, three of those losses came by just single digits but when you break it down to offensive teams and defensive teams in the top-50, Arizona State is a combined 4-14, coming out with wins against Oregon (#32 offense) & UCLA (#21 offense), as well as Creighton (#40 defense) & UCLA (#13 defense).
In the six games they played against teams that ranked in the top-50 both offensive and defensively, they lost the first five games by an average of 15.6 PPG before their upset win over UCLA.
Arizona State may have played a difficult schedule, but that doesn’t change the fact that while their defense is #41 against effective FG% and #17 defending against points inside the arc, their offense holds an abysmal ranking of #344 in their own effective FG% and rank #49 in 3PT%, making it difficult to put up points themselves!
The Sun Devils have played a rough stretch of games, but on the season they are putting up just 63.4 PPG, and averaging under 60 PPG against conference opponents. In just the last four games alone, Arizona State has shot 34.4% or worse in three of those games, similar to the 37.2% shooting that they have held their last three straight opponents under!
Arizona State has been able to limit the points that they have had scored against them, but their offense has just fallen short, keeping this team well below the .500 mark.
Taking on a top team like Arizona is no small task, while Arizona State knows how to play defense inside the arc, their lack of ability to score against a top caliber defensive unit could potentially make this a very long game for Arizona State.
Arizona and pleyer of the year hopefuls, Christian Koloko and Bennedict Mathurin look to continue their pursuit for a top seed in March Madness as they look to continue their dominating run in the Pac-12, and their definitive edge against the in state opponents!
Arizona vs Arizona State Prediction
Arizona is 4-2 against the spread on the road this season, winning by over 10 PPG and they have dominated struggling offenses.
With the head-to-head history, the definitive size advantage, the winning streak and the opponent all taken into account, I can’t imagine Arizona State putting up enough points on this defense to make this game competitive, even after an 11 point loss in the last meeting.
Prediction: Arizona (-13)
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Arizona vs Arizona State Preview from GoldSheet
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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