Duke vs Virginia Betting Preview
College basketball handicapper JM Sports gives his Duke vs Virginia prediction in the ACC. At the time of posting, the Blue Devils have opened as a 11.5-point home favorite over the road Cavaliers, with the total sitting at 128 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Monday, February 7 | ACC Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Duke Blue Devils -11.5 vs Virginia Cavaliers |
Total: | 128 Points |
Game Time: | 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT |
Arena: | Cameron Indoor Stadium in Durham, NC |
TV: | ESPN |
Duke vs Virginia Analysis
A few years back, when you looked at Virginia taking on Duke, you would have been thinking about a legitimate conversation regarding the final game in March Madness.
This season, one of those teams is still fighting for a top seed in the tournament, and while we all know Virginia has the capability and talent to compete for a title, currently they are just 14-9 on the season but coming in ranking 6th in the ACC.
Duke has had their up’s and down’s this season, but currently they find themselves ranked in the top-10 in the most recent AP poll and they find themselves atop the ACC conference that used to dominate college basketball for so many years.
Duke has been one of the top teams in the ACC for years, and Virginia can attest to their capabilities. Dating back to 1997 Duke holds a 34-7 head-to-head advantage against the Cavaliers, which includes an astounding 17-1 record on their home court!
Big Opportunity for Cavaliers
Virginia looks to capitalize on a huge opportunity to get a statement win with conference play in full force. Yet, Duke on their home court, is never a game that you want to take lightly, especially when their defense is playing as good as they are.
When you look at KenPom’s defensive efficiency rankings, this is just the 2nd game this season for Virginia against a team in the top – 45! Virginia hasn’t exactly played an easy schedule, but most of the impressive teams that they have played have thrived on the offensive side of the ball.
While Virginia is 5-6 against those top-60 offensive units, they are just 2-7 against teams that rank in the top-100 in defensive efficiency, putting up just 60 PPG in those 9 games.
Virginia has been able to limit turnovers on the offensive side of the ball, but their biggest weakness has been their inability to prevent the long ball, they are #239 guarding the 3PT shot, which is a daunting task to take on when Duke ranks in the top – 50 in 3PT% this season!
The Cavaliers defense is holding teams under 60 PPG on average, and while they are 3-2 in their last five games, they have played an easier stretch of games then Duke has in the last five, and a lot of their opponents have stood up to the caliber of a top-10 teams like Coach K’s Duke Blue Devils.
Duke Dominating at Home
Duke is 19-3 on the season, and not only are they winning, they are winning big, covering the spread in 13 of their games and losing just six against the spread. They are winning at home by 20.8 PPG, but they have been a 21 point favorite on average in those game games.
Duke has cashed in on five straight games and they are 9-2 against their conference foes. Duke also holds a top 15 unit on both sides of the ball when you look at KenPom’s efficiency rankings, and they have played a slightly harder schedule then Virginia has this season.
Duke is 8-3 against teams that rank in the top 100 overall through KenPom, including just 2 losses in the 11 games against top – 100 offenses and just 2 losses in the 10 games against top – 100 defenses.
Although when you look at the top tier of competition, teams on the top-100 list on both sides of the ball, Duke is 6-1, with the only loss coming to Ohio State by just five points, and that list includes Kentucky and Gonzaga, two teams currently in the AP top-5.
Duke is putting up almost 81 PPG on average this season, while posting almost 84 PPG on their home court. Yet it isn’t just the offense, the defense is holding their opponents to just over 63 PPG, and the ACC opponents are shooting just 39% on average!
The Blue Devils are 7-1 this season against teams shooting 45% or better and in the last two years they are 11-2 against teams committing 12 or less TO’s per game!
Coach K also looks to continue his impressive tenure, one that is riddled with ACC wins, this team is off back-to-back wins by 10+ points and Coach K is 11-1 at home off that caliber off wins against conference rivals (and 21-2 at home off back-to-back wins by 10+ points, regardless of conference).
Not only is Duke fighting for a spot in the tournament, but Wendell Moore and Paolo Banchero are both out here fighting for person accomplishments as well.
Paolo is all over the radar’s for Player of the Year potential, as a 6-10 freshman, Banchero has played in a multitude of big games already, but a big time conference opponent is always another impressive mark on the resume.
Duke looks for their 6th straight win in tonight’s games, while Virginia looks to put their 3rd straight W in the win column. Tip-off is at 7:00 PM ET and this should be an exciting match-up.
Duke vs Virginia Prediction
I think the inability to cover the 3 is going to be the downfall of Virginia in tonight’s game. Virginia’s offense hasn’t been able to put up enough points to compete in recent big games, and when Duke is putting up almost 84 PPG @ home this year, and shooting the 3 as well as they have been, a team has to show up on both sides of the ball, which the Cavaliers have struggled with.
Prediction: Duke Blue Devils (-11.5)
Interested in placing a bet on the Duke vs Virginia contest? DraftKings is offering a $1,000 Deposit Bonus for first-time bettors in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Indiana, Colorado, Illinois, Iowa, Tennessee, Michigan, Virginia, Wyoming and Arizona.
🖱️ THANK YOU for helping us cross another milestone, surpassing 4K subscribers on YouTube! #SportsMemoTV continues to produce some of the best sports betting content for absolutely zero cost. Help us reach our goal on the Road to 5K. 👇👇https://t.co/ZxGljIiLzU
— Sportsmemo (@sportsmemo) January 29, 2022
Duke vs Virginia Preview from GoldSheet
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Monday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Duke vs Virginia contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the college basketball point spreads, moneylines, first half lines and betting percentages for all of Monday’s NCAAB games, including this Duke vs Virginia showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Live odds updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips to help you become a better sports bettor. Wee also recommend browsing through our sports betting tips video library.
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!