Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara Prediction and Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara prediction in the Big West Conference. At the time of posting, the Gauchos have opened as a 5.5-point home favorite over the road Titans, with the total sitting at 134.5 points.
Check out our College Basketball Free Picks page for betting thoughts from some of the country’s top handicappers.
Thursday, February 17 | Big West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Cal State Fullerton Titans +5.5 at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos |
Total: | 134.5 Points |
Game Time: | 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT |
Arena: | The Thunderdome in Santa Barbara, CA |
TV: | ESPN+ |
Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara Analysis
The California battle is set to go down Thursday night as Cal State Fullerton travels to UC Santa Barbara in this interstate Big West match-up.
Cal State Fullerton sits in the 2nd position in the conference standings, even after back-to-back losses, Cal State Cullerton is tied for 2nd in the conference, just behind Long Beach State with 6 games left in the season.
UC Santa Barbara is currently 7th in the Big West, winning less then half of their games against conference opponents, posting a 4-5 record.
Santa Barbara has struggled, and now they have Ajare Sanni listed a questionable for today’s game, the 6-3 junior has started all 14 games that he has played and that could be another blow to this Santa Barbara team.
Titans Need to Tighten Up For Automatic Bid
Cal State Fullerton is still in the hunt to receive the automatic bid for the conference champion. They are 8-3 against conference opponents, sitting just behind the Long Beach State team that is 10-1.
Cal-Fullerton lost their only game against Long Beach State, but they did walk away with the win in the last game against UC-Santa Barbara, winning 79-73 on their home court back on January 15th.
Cal-Fullerton is 14-8 on the season, while playing a more difficult schedule then UC-Santa Barbara, but they are winning by just two PPG, keeping the games close.
On the road they are just 5-6 this year, but covering six out of ten games, and this offense is struggling to shoot consistently away from home, shooting just 40.7% in those games.
While they have an impressive conference record, they are just 2-3 in the last five games overall, losing both of their road games in the last five, putting up just 58 PPG in those two games. They have shot just 33.8% in the last five, stemming from an offense that has shot under 34% in four of the previous five games.
Prior to this difficult five game stretch, Cal-Fullerton had won eight straight games, so we know they are capable of winning. Yet, that was when the season got serious, and the wrong time for Cal-Fullerton to start struggling.
They are the 75th most experience team in the nation on average, but the experience hasn’t exactly helped in the big games. Cal-Fullerton is just 2-5 against teams that rank in KenPom’s top 150, and just 3-5 against defensive units in the top 150, in terms of efficiency.
Gauchos in Unfamiliar Territory
UC Santa Barbara is 7th in the Big West currently, that is a position that they aren’t used to, in the last three years, this Santa Barbara team has finished in the top-2 in the conference in all three seasons.
Now they find themselves 4-5 in the conference, with six games left to play, and five of those games are against teams that are above them in the conference standings.
Five losses in the conference is already a lot of this Santa Barbara team, and there is plenty of games left to be played against serious competition, last season this team lost just three conference games all year, combining for just nine conference losses in the two seasons prior to this one.
There is a very real possibility that UC-Santa Barbara could lose as many conference games this year, as they have in the previous two years combined. Although, this team has posted a 6-2 record on their home court, putting up almost 73 PPG on 51.7% shooting, while allowing just 57.3 PPG on 37.2% shooting at home.
Winning by an average of 15.2 PPG, yet they have been a big favorite in those games, coming into those games as a 14 point favorite on average. This is the 1st time all season that Santa Barbara has won three straight games and their offensive unit has played a monumental role in the recent success.
They shot 52.3% or better in all three of those games, including two games with a 60%+ shooting performance, while the defense has held their opponents to just 58 PPG in the three game stretch.
While this offense is #37 in 2PT%, leading to the 52nd best effective FG% in the nation, and the defense has held teams to the 44th lowest effective FG% as a result of the 52nd best defense against the 3PT shot & 71st best defense against the 2PT%.
On top of being one of the taller teams in the country, they have failed to win a game against a top-200 team in KenPom’s rankings. They have lost all six games against these top-200 teams, and they are just 1-8 against teams in the top-250!
Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara Prediction
I mentioned before this has been a season that these two teams haven’t exactly been accustomed to, basically reversing roles in the conference rankings.
Although, does that mean that the head-to-head trends are set to reverse as well? With Cal State Fullerton taking the first game of the year, things may appear that way, but UC Santa Barbara still holds a 33-19 straight up advantage in the head-to-head series, including a 19-6 record on their home court dating back to 1997.
Cal-Fullerton has played the harder schedule, and they hold the experience advantage, but they have struggled from three point distance on both sides of the ball.
While Santa Barbara holds the edge in record this season, even playing an easier schedule, and they hold a definitive height advantage.
Playing on their home court is also a big benefit for this Santa Barbara team, but will the three game win-streak continue behind this recently explosive offense, or will Cal-Fullerton be able to end their two game losing streak?
While they failed to show up for the first game between these two teams this season, Santa Barbara has been a different kind of monster on their home court this year.
We have seem glimmers of what made this team a threat in previous seasons when they are playing at home. They are also 11-3 against the spread off three straight wins against division rivals in the last two years, outscoring opponents by 12.5 PPG in the game to follow.
Prediction: UC Santa Barbara -5.5
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Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara Betting Preview from GoldSheet
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Thursday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara contest.
NCAAB Odds Screen
Sportsmemo’s live odds screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the college basketball point spreads, moneylines, first half lines and betting percentages for all of Thursday’s NCAAB games, including this Cal State Fullerton at UC Santa Barbara showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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