Fresno State vs New Mexico Betting Preview
Sportsmemo college basketball analyst Kyle Kargel gives his Fresno State vs New Mexico predictions tipping off at 11:00pm ET the from the Save Mart Center. New Mexico sits 14-0 and 2-0 in Mountain West play while Fresno State sits just 5-8 and 1-1 in conference play.
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Fresno State vs New Mexico Betting Odds
Tuesday, January 3 | Mountain West Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Fresno State Bulldogs +4.5 vs New Mexico Lobos |
Total: | 136.5 Points |
Game Time: | 11:00pm ET / 8:00pm PT |
Arena: | Save Mart Center in Fresno, CA (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | CBS Sports Network |
Fresno State vs New Mexico Betting Analysis
After Purdue’s loss last night, the New Mexico Lobos head into tonight’s matchup against Fresno State as the lone unbeaten team in Division I.
They are 8-4-1 against the spread and were put to the test in their last game at Wyoming winning by a single point when listed as a 2.5-point favorite to win. Fresno State deploys a much tougher defense than Wyoming and plays at a slower pace which we’ll dive into.
The Bulldogs head in to tonight’s home matchup 5-8 on the season and 3-9 against the spread. The Lobos head in as 4.5-point favorites to pick up the road win against the Bulldogs.
No Match For New Mexico
Who had New Mexico as the last unbeaten team in Division I? Most likely no one would have predicted this but here we are with the Lobos sitting 14-0, but most of their wins have come against unimpressive teams.
Their best win was a 69-65 win at Saint Mary’s back on November 30. This team has shown 0 flaws this season ranking in the top 100 across many different KenPom offensive and defensive advanced metrics.
Their style of play involves driving the ball inside with Jamal Mashburn Jr. or Jaelen House who each average 17.1 ppg. House specifically is a ballhawk on the defensive end averaging three steals per game which is tied for third nationally of any player.
Transfer senior Morris Udeze has been a force inside averaging 15.7 ppg, 7.5 rpg all while averaging 59% from the field shooting. As a team New Mexico averages 84.1 ppg which is 10th nationally.
The one single area where New Mexico slacks is shooting the three pointer ranking 344th in 3pt attempts per game but they are 44th in the nation in 3pt shooting percentage.
Fresno State Must Find Identity
Don’t sleep on this Fresno State team to pull the upset at home. They’ll attempt to slow the pace down ranking 321st in adjusted tempo compared to New Mexico who ranks 27th in that aspect.
They rank 77th in adjusted defensive efficiency which is much better than Wyoming who ranks 215th in that metric and as already stated the Lobos only beat the Cowboys by one point.
If Fresno State hopes to cover or win, they need to get their offense going as they’ve failed to score 60 points in four straight games. This team is still trying to find their identity since the departure of Orlando Robinson last season.
Isaih Moore is trying to fill that void but his 11.6 points and 7.8 rebounds is not enough alone. They’ll need to find some fire power from 3pt range as only two players on the roster have made more than nine 3pt shots total on the season.
At the end of the day, if Moore is off the floor this Fresno State will struggle mightily to stop New Mexico inside.
Fresno State vs New Mexico Prediction
Fresno State just isn’t coming around and they only average 60 ppg on the season. A mark they’ve failed to achieve in four straight games like we said.
New Mexico has enough defense to once again keep Fresno State at bay while running like a well-oiled machine on offense. Take New Mexico -4.5 to cover at Fresno State on Tuesday night.
Prediction: New Mexico Lobos -4.5
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The Happy Hour Tip-Off Show will broadcast Monday through Friday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT. Pull up a barstool and join us as we break down tonight’s college basketball card, including possibly this Fresno State vs New Mexico clash, from a sports betting perspective.
College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s Fresno State vs New Mexico contest.
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