Purdue vs Northwestern Prediction and Betting Preview
SportsMemo handicapper JM Sports gives his Purdue vs Northwestern prediction in the Big 10 Conference. At the time of posting, the Boilermakers have opened as a 6-point road favorite over the home Wildcats, with the total sitting at 146 points.
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Wednesday, February 16 | Big 10 Conference Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Purdue Boilermakers -6 vs Northwestern Wildcats |
Total: | 146 Points |
Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
Arena: | Welsh-Ryan Arena in Evanston, IL |
TV: | Big Ten Network |
Purdue vs Northwestern Analysis
Purdue finds themselves in the top 5 in the country in the most recent AP poll. Yet, they are the 2nd best team in the conference standings. They find themselves behind Illinois in the conference standings, but they are seven spots ahead of Illinois in the AP poll.
Northwestern welcomes the challenge as Purdue travels there to take on the 11-11 Wildcats in this Big Ten battle.
Both of these teams have played a difficult schedule so far, ranking in the top 35 in difficulty on the season, but one team has made the most of it, and the other has struggled their way to a .500 record.
Purdue has won 9 of their 12 match-ups against teams ranked in KenPom’s top 100 overall, while Northwestern has kept a chunk of their hardest games close, they have won just four of the 15 games against top-100 opponents.
Purdue an Offensive Powerhouse
Purdue looks to continue their dominance on the seasons. They are a top 5 team for a reason, posting a 22-4 record, with all four of their losses coming against conference opponents.
Regardless, the Boilermakers are putting up almost 83 PPG and holding their opponents under 69 PPG on average this season and even though they have lost four games against the Big Ten, they are still averaging over 77 PPG and shooting over 48% in their 15 conference games thus far.
Purdue has cashed in on seven of the last eight games they have played, but they have allowed their opponents to shoot over 50% in two of the last four games, which is just the 2nd and 3rd time all season that they have allowed an opponent to shoot over 50%.
Even if the defense struggles, Purdue has made up for it this season, compensating the defensive issues with the most efficient offense in the country!
They are #3 in effective field goal percentage this season, stemming from a team that is the 3rd best team in the nation shooting the ball from outside the arc, yet they are the 10th best team scoring inside the 3 point line, scoring from every level on the court.
They are a dominating threat on the offensive boards, and this team is one of the tallest in the nation, not to mention the fact that they are one of the deepest teams in Division I ball.
This is the same offense that has put up 79 PPG against teams that rank in the top-75 defensively, and an offense that has put up over 83 points after two or more consecutive games going under the total. Their defense has held opponents to 72 PPG in the previous two seasons off two or more games under the total.
While the defense has ranked below the top-100 in terms of efficiency, the team has been able to get the W against teams that rank in the top-75 offensively.
The defense has allowed a hefty chunk of points to these teams, but their offense has been able to get the job done and the team is 10-2 against teams that rank in the top 75 offensively.
Northwestern Taking Care of Basketball
Northwestern finds themselves nearing the wrong end of the Big Ten standings, ranking 10th out of 14 teams, but on the season, they are still at the .500 mark with an 11-11 record, and they are 7-6 on their home court.
This Northwestern team is 3-1 in their last four games, including a 2-0 record on their own court, but those are their only two wins in their last seven games at home. Yet, when you back the view up, you see that this team is also on a 4-9 run in the last 13 games.
Northwestern has had their highs and their lows on the year, but they are actually a rather well balanced team. They rank in the top-70 offensively and defensively, while also having the depth to stay fresh deep into games.
They have been one of the best teams in the country protecting the ball and preventing turnovers, while the height of the team makes them a real threat inside the 3 point arc on the defensive side.
This defense is holding opponents to under 40% shooting at home, but the offense is shooting just 40.2% in their last five games.
The big difference between these teams is how they perform in the big moments, they have both gone through a difficult schedule, as I mentioned before, but Northwestern is just 4-11 against their top-tier opponents, on top of winning just one game against top-50 offensive units, pulling out a two point win against Michigan State, but still posting a 1-9 record against offenses of that caliber.
The Wildcats are just 1-7 on the money line this year against teams that attempt 21 or more 3PT shots per game and 11-45 on the money line against teams shooting over 37% from three with Collins as their head coach.
It isn’t just the 3-ball though, they are also 4-34 on the money line against teams that are shooting 48% or better after the 15 game mark dating back to 1997 (losing by 11 PPG in those 38 games). Northwestern also holds a 3-17 record on the money line off a loss against a conference rival in the last 2 seasons.
Purdue vs Northwestern Prediction
Purdue holds the edge in the match-up statistically this season, but having the edge over Northwestern isn’t something new for Purdue.
They pulled off a 20 point win earlier this season on their home court against Northwestern at the end of January. That win has increased their record to 4-0 against the Wildcats in the last three seasons, but all the way back to 1997, Purdue is 27-12 straight up against Northwestern.
This is a big opportunity for Purdue’s offense to really show what they are capable of, looking to bounce from the slight drop in offensive production as we make the final push for March Madness.
I really like the over in this game. Purdue’s offense is capable of putting up numbers that would single-handedly knock out a solid chunk of the necessary points.
These teams combine for a 14-9 over/under record home & away respectively. Purdue averages upwards of 83 PPG on the season, almost 79 PPG on the road and they are shooting 49.6% in the last 5 games.
The defense has had their struggles as well and they are allowing opponents to put up points recently, stemming from the fact that they are allowing the opposition to shoot almost 48% in the last 5 games.
Prediction: Over 136
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Purdue vs Northwestern Preview from GoldSheet
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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