San Diego State vs UC San Diego Betting Preview
Sportsmemo college basketball analyst Kyle Kargel gives his San Diego State vs UC San Diego predictions tipping off from the Viejas Arena. UC San Diego’s last two wins have come outside of Division I play while this will be San Diego State’s final non-conference game before Mountain West play starts.
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San Diego State vs UC San Diego Betting Odds
Tuesday, December 20 | College Basketball Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | San Diego State Aztecs -22.5 vs UC San Diego Tritons |
Total: | 134.5 Points |
Game Time: | 10:30pm ET / 7:30pm PT |
Arena: | Viejas Arena in San Diego, CA (Odds Above by DraftKings) |
TV: | FS1 |
San Diego State vs UC San Diego Betting Analysis
UC San Diego makes the short 15 minute trip south to San Diego State University for a game against the Aztecs tonight. The Tritons head in as a 20+ point underdog against an Aztecs team that sits 8-3 and 6-0 at home on the season.
They’ve defeated schools like Stanford, BYU and Ohio State so far this season while dropping games to Arizona and Arkansas. They may not be where they want to be yet to compete against prominent Power 5 teams but they have enough to win the Mountain West Championship this season.
Recently, UC San Diego covered as a 15-point underdog to Nevada losing 64-56 but failed to cover against rival San Diego losing 84-58 while listed as only a 6-point underdog. Can the Aztecs do enough tonight to defeat the Tritons by 20+? Let’s dive into this matchup.
UC San Diego Sad Start To Season
This will be the toughest game UC San Diego plays this season by far as this will be the toughest opponent on their non-conference schedule. The next best team they faced was Nevada and we already went through how that game turned out.
Overall, the Tritons love to play slow ranking 324th in adjusted tempo and 311th in average possession length. They fail to produce on the offensive end ranking 290th in 3pt field goal percentage and 244th in 2pt field goal percentage nationally.
On defense it gets worse ranking 298th in adjusted defensive efficiency, 343rd in 3pt field goal percentage allowed and 344th in forcing turnovers.
If this team has any shot of competing tonight it’ll be through junior guard Bryce Pope averaging 18.6 ppg which is almost double the next best point scorer for the Tritons. UC San Diego cleans up rebounds well as they roster three different players averaging six or more rebounds per game.
San Diego State Stout On Defense
This Aztecs team shouldn’t be taken lightly come March but first they must get through UC San Diego and their Mountain West schedule which awaits them after this game.
They rank in the top 100 nationally in many defensive categories including adjusted defensive efficiency (19th), forcing turnovers (46th) and offensive rebounds allowed (80th).
Their offense comes from inside the arch as the team ranks 58th in 2pt field goal percentage but 326th in 3pt field goal percentage. In fact, only 22.4% of their total points per game come from beyond the arch which is 342nd nationally.
They’re fueled by guard trio Darrion Trammell, Matt Bradley and Lamont Butler making up 39 of the team’s 78 points scored per game. This trio also loves to play defense making up nearly five steals per game between them as well.
San Diego State vs UC San Diego Prediction
With the spread of this game now listed at 22.5 and the total of this game at 134.5 I’m inclined to take the under solely based on UC San Diego’s inability to produce on the offensive end.
If this Triton’s team gets to 60 points against this stout Aztecs defense I’ll be shocked. I’d sprinkle a little on the Aztecs to cover 22.5 but I’m looking at a score in the realm of 75-55.
Prediction: Under 134.5 / (Sprinkle On San Diego State -22.5)
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College Basketball Stat Sheet
GoldSheet prepares a daily college basketball stat sheet, which offers a head-to-head comparison for how teams are performing in a number of key areas heading into a game. Check out Tuesday’s sheet, with notes on tonight’s San Diego State vs UC San Diego contest.
Happy Hour Tip-Off Show
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The Happy Hour Tip-Off Show will broadcast Monday through Friday at 1:45pm ET / 10:45am PT. Pull up a barstool and join us as we break down tonight’s college basketball card, including possibly this San Diego State vs UC San Diego clash, from a sports betting perspective.
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