Troy vs Texas State Predictions and Betting Preview
Sportsmemo content contributor Kyle Kargel offers his Troy vs Texas State betting preview in the Sun Belt Conference for Friday, February 25. At the time of posting, the Bobcats are a 2-point road favorite against the home Trojans, with the total sitting at 127 points.
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Friday, February 25 | Sun Belt Conference Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Troy Trojans +2 vs Texas State Bobcats |
Total: | 127 Points |
Game Time: | 9:00pm ET / 6:00pm PT |
Arena: | Trojan Arena in Troy, AL |
TV: | ESPN2 |
Troy vs Texas State Analysis
Texas State is doing everything they can as of late to hold off the rest of the Sun Belt Conference en route to a regular season conference championship.
They’ve won eight in a row, but did lose to Troy in convincing style the last time these two met 78-63 back on December 30.
The Trojans are 1.5 games back of the Bobcats but unfortunately this is the last game for both teams this regular season making Appalachian State the only other team that can capture the Sun Belt regular season crown. Therefore, Troy will be trying to play spoiler on their homecourt for Senior Night.
Trojans Spread Out Playing Time
If there’s one thing we know about the Trojans it’s that they love spreading playing time across the board. They rank 1st in the country in bench minutes and almost dead last in two foul participation keeping fresh legs and players out of foul trouble.
They roster 13 players who average over 10 minutes of playing time per game and no one averaging over 25 minutes. Therefore, leading scorer Efe Odigie only averages just over 11 points per game shooting over 48% from the field.
Unfortunately this deep rotation hasn’t led to much offensive productivity. They rank 250th or worse in adjusted offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage and turning the ball over.
As a result, much of their offense comes from the free throw line as they rank in the top 50 in percentage of points coming from the stripe at 20.7%. Duke Deen and Duke Miles are the catalysts on the team averaging over 18 points, 4 rebounds, 6 assists and over 3 steals per game combined.
Bobcats Gunning For Sun Belt Crown
It’s all on the line tonight for the Bobcats. If they win, they’re the Sun Belt Regular Season Champions for the second year in a row. Last year they shared the title with Georgia State. So how can Texas State ensure a win here to capture the crown?
The Bobcats are great behind the arch shooting it over 37% ranking 33rd nationally. The problem is they don’t shoot it much from there attempting just 16 shots per game.
Much offense comes from inside the arch and at the free throw line as they rank in the top 100 nationally in percentage of points coming from each of those areas.
The Bobcats seem to get very lucky as well, ranking 5th nationally in luck rating according to KenPom. They like to play at a very slow pace ranking 337th in adjusted tempo.
They’re a highly experienced team with their top five scorers all being seniors making this game and Sun Belt Championship a must-have for them.
Troy vs Texas State Prediction
The line favors Texas State by two as of now which is the way I will go for this one as they have much more to play for.
Having a more experienced team this late in the season tends to give more of an edge as well. The Bobcats are riding high right now and when you add in the fact this is a revenge spot as well for them, it seems like a no brainer.
Texas State will be not only looking to take the conference crown but also embarrass Troy on their home floor just like how they were embarrassed back on December 30.
Prediction: Texas State -2
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Troy vs Texas State GoldSheet Preview
College Basketball Stat Sheet
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