Season Win Totals Analysis
As the MLB season comes to a close, we look back at the expectations at the beginning of the year. Who took down the challenge this season, and who faced some extra challenges along the way. Sportsmemo MLB handicapper JM Sports looks at the most overwhelming and underwhelming teams in comparison to their pre-season projected win totals.
MLB Teams Who Exceeded Expectations
Team | Final Record (Pre-Season Win Total in Parenthesis) |
---|---|
Baltimore Orioles | 83-79 (61.5) +21.5 |
Cleveland Guardians | 92-70 (76.5) +15.5 |
New York Mets | 101-61 (87) +14 |
Houston Astros | 106-56 (92) +14 |
Los Angeles Dodgers | 111-51 (97.5) +13.5 |
Atlanta Braves | 101-61 (89) +12 |
Baltimore Orioles
Even in one of the most impressive seasons that the Orioles have strung together in recent memory, they still ended the year in 4th place in the best division in baseball. This is the first time since 2016 that they have finished with a winning record, which coincidentally was the last time this Orioles team made the postseason.
Unfortunately, they fell short of the postseason again this season, but it is just the 2nd time since 2016 that Baltimore wasn’t in last place in the AL East.
There are a lot of names on the free agent market this off-season, there may be a little bit on an incentive to go to Baltimore now, it may not be the desired location, but by the looks of it, especially with the young talent, it doesn’t seem like the worst place to end up.
For years that wasn’t the case, if they can add a big name or two on the free agent market, emphasized by a starting pitcher, the Baltimore Orioles could be a real contender for a least the wild card in the next year or two.
Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland had their up’s and downs on the year, at one point, looking like their playoff hopes were gone. This AL Central was never expected to put 3 teams into the postseason like the AL East has done this year, but it was expected to be a much tighter race amongst the teams within the division.
Cleveland was expected to finish in 4th place behind Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit, none of which ever came to fruition. All-in-all, this year may not have been a lock for Cleveland all season, but it ended up resulting in a pretty impressive 2022 year.
I don’t know if the Guardians have what it takes to make an extended run in the postseason, but the fact that they pulled away from the division like they did, and showed they have some very young talent, show be a positive sign for the years to come.
MLB Teams Who Fell Short of Expectations
Team | Final Record (Pre-Season Win Total in Parenthesis) |
---|---|
Washington Nationals | 55-107 (70.5) -15.5 |
Detroit Tigers | 66-96 (79.5) -13.5 |
Cincinnati Reds | 62-100 (73.5) -11.5 |
Chicago White Sox | 81-81 (91.5) -11.5 |
Los Angeles Angels | 73-89 (84.5) -11.5 |
Oakland Athletics | 60-102 (70.5) -10.5 |
Washington Nationals
There were questions to be said about the intentions of this team moving forward at the beginning of the year, what was going to happen to Soto? What were we to expect out of Stephen Strasburg? Some of those questions were answered this season, but not in the way Nationals fans may have hoped.
They won just 55 games and finished with the biggest negative variance, finishing 15.5 wins below their projected preseason total and Juan Soto is a San Diego Padre. Stephen Strasburg ended 2022 back on the 60 day IL with rib injuries and his status for next season has already been put into question.
The trade that they made drastically improved their farm system, but it was a farm system that was struggling and is still just middle of the pack at best.
This team has to be wondering how much gas is left in the tank of 34 year old Strasburg, if MacKenzie Gore can be a replacement, and if this farm system can produce a turn-around fast enough to propel this team into contention in the same division as the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves.
Detroit Tigers
The AL Central, as a whole, was a division that struggled, I mentioned before that Cleveland eventually pulled away with it, but Kansas City, Detroit and Chicago all finished at least 10 games below their projected win totals.
Yet Detroit finished with the 2nd worst record against their own struggling division, finishing neck-and-neck with Kansas City for the worst record in the AL Central.
There is some hope in the fact that Detroit dealt with a hefty amount of injuries, with Casey Mize, Spencer Turnbull, Tarik Skubal, and Austin Meadows all spending extensive amounts of time on the IL.
With some players getting healthy and a wide open division, free agency could be the other option. It looks like Detroit has a better chance at a bounce back season than Washington does.
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