NFL Week 9 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick-off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 9 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 9 as of Thursday, October 27 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Philadelphia Eagles -9 at Houston Texans | o/u 43 |
Indianapolis Colts +6 at New England Patriots | o/u 41 |
Buffalo Bills -10.5 at New York Jets | o/u 47.5 |
Miami Dolphins -3.5 at Chicago Bears | o/u 41.5 |
Minnesota Vikings -2.5 at Washington Commanders | o/u 44.5 |
Green Bay Packers -3.5 at Detroit Lions | o/u 49 |
Los Angeles Chargers -3 at Atlanta Falcons | o/u 48 |
Carolina Panthers +9.5 at Cincinnati Bengals | o/u 44 |
Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars | o/u 47 |
Seattle Seahawks +3 at Arizona Cardinals | o/u 49.5 |
Los Angeles Rams +2.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | o/u 43 |
Tennessee Titans +10.5 at Kansas City Chiefs | o/u 47 |
Baltimore Ravens -3.5 at New Orleans Saints | o/u 49 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After that week’s games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 9 Odds Analysis
Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans – Thursday Night Football
My Projections: Philadelphia -10, o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Philadelphia -9, o/u 43
I was very close with the spread and the total here, and I think both are fairly priced. If anything, I see this spread coming up to 10 rather than dropping closer to eight. The Eagles are coming off a bye and the Texans are proving how bad they are week in and week out. I think this game is appropriately priced and there will be little movement after Week 8 is completed.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots
My Projections: New England -5, o/u 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New England -6, o/u 41
I am within one point on the spread and the total here, and I think this game is priced properly… for now. I made my projections for Week 9 prior to Matt Ryan being benched, and I am unsure if SuperBook put out this line prior to that news also.
This line will move down if Ehlinger plays well against Washington or will move up significantly if he cannot do well against the Commanders. For that reason, the adjusted line will be hard to predict until we see how Week 8 plays out.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
My Projections: Buffalo -8.5, o/u 43
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Buffalo -10.5, o/u 47.5
Maybe I gave the Jets too much credit in this look-ahead, but 10.5 points on the road seem aggressive for any team, even the Buffalo Bills. I am off on the total here, but I actually expect it to reopen closer to my projections.
We know the Jets struggle to score, but their defense is their only chance, so if they can slightly slow down Josh Allen, I can see a 24-17 game. I do not see both offenses exploding and I think this total will be re-adjusted after Week 8 regardless of how these teams play.
Miami Dolphins at Chicago Bears
My Projections: Miami -3.5, o/u 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Miami -3.5, o/u 41.5
I was spot on with the spread and a point within the total. I do not expect much movement in this game no matter how Week 8 plays out. Miami is slightly overrated, but the market has not overreacted to the Bears’ Week 7 win whatsoever. Despite the firepower Miami has on offense, they struggle to score, so I think this total is priced well also.
Minnesota Vikings at Washington Commanders
My Projections: Minnesota -3.5, o/u 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Minnesota -2.5, o/u 44.5
I was a point off on the spread and was basically spot on with the total here. I think I am underestimating the Commanders, especially considering how overrated the Vikings are. It is a revenge game for Kirk Cousins and it is hidden in the 1 pm slate, so he may go off, and I expect this line to reopen at -3, right in the middle of my and SuperBook’s projections.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
My Projections: Green Bay -4, o/u 46
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Green Bay -3.5, o/u 49
I was close with the spread here and off by a lot with the total. I think the market has this one priced correctly. The Packers’ defense is bad and the Lions defense is horrible. Both teams should be able to score at will against each other. This total could reopen at 51 and I would not be shocked.
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons
My Projections: Los Angeles -3, o/u 50
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Los Angeles -3, o/u 48
I was spot on with the spread here and slightly off on the total. Both of these teams are atrocious on defense, but Atlanta runs the ball and kills the clock, which is why I think SuperBook’s line is slightly lower than mine. There should be no shortage of offense in this game, and I expect the total and spread to stay put.
Carolina Panthers at Cincinnati Bengals
My Projections: Cincinnati -7.5, o/u 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Cincinnati -9.5, o/u 44
I was off on both the total and the spread here, but I expect this spread to drop closer to my projection. The Panthers, despite their flaws, are good on defense and are ascending with PJ Walker under center. The Bengals are on the way up too, but 9.5 points is a ton. I see this line sitting Cincy -8 all week next week and I think 9.5 is too aggressive.
Las Vegas Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Projections: Jacksonville -3, o/u 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Las Vegas -1.5, o/u 47
This is one of two games where I am completely off in comparison to the market. The Jaguars are the higher-rated team in DVOA and most categories, but their decision-making has been suspect. Both teams are better than their records, but I am having trouble seeing why Las Vegas is a road favorite against the Jags.
Week 8 should give us more information, and both I and the SuperBook will adjust our lines accordingly, but this one is a head scratcher. I see the Jaguars re-opening as 1-point favorites and it will never touch my line of JAX -3 barring major injuries to the Raiders.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
My Projections: Seattle -2.5, o/u 48.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Arizona -3, o/u 49.5
This is another game where I have the favorites flipped. Seattle beat Arizona earlier in the season and now the Cardinals are three-point favorites again. Has no one seen how bad Arizona is and how good Seattle is?
This is one of the few times where I would bet a look-ahead line prior to the week being played. Also, based on Week 8 matchups, I do not see a world where the Cardinals are still three-point favorites, over Seattle.
Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
My Projections: Tampa Bay -2, o/u 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Tampa Bay -2.5, o/u 43
I was spot on with the total and spread here. Regardless of what happens in Week 8, I expect this game to stay put. We may see Tampa -3 since 3 is a key number, but I am not even sure if the Buccaneers are the right side. Time will tell with this look-ahead line.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Sunday Night Football
My Projections: Kansas City -7, o/u 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Kansas City -10.5, o/u 47
I am close on the total here but way off on the spread. The Chiefs are amazing, do not get me wrong, but I still have trouble laying 10.5 against any team this season, especially a team as well-coached as the Titans are.
This did not help them in Buffalo, but that was a revenge/statement game for the Bills. The Titans, despite their lack of talent, are not going anywhere, and though the Chiefs will be off a bye, I like this line to drop closer to my projections.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints – Monday Night Football
My Projections: Baltimore -4, o/u 47.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Baltimore -3.5, o/u 49
I was spot on with the spread here and slightly off on the total. The Ravens will come into this game off a long rest which certainly benefits them. The Saints seem to be trending downward, so I see this spread actually reopening closer to my line than SuperBook’s. As for the total, I think it comes down a point to meet in the middle at 48.
Interested in placing a bet on the NFL Week 9 point spreads or totals? Caesars Sports is offering up to a $1,500 risk-free bet for first-time deposits in New Jersey, West Virginia, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Arizona, New York and Louisiana.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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