Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview: Game Analysis
The 4-3 Bengals head to Cleveland to take on the 2-5 Browns for Monday Night Football. Will the Browns drop their fifth straight game? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns Week 8 betting pick.
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Monday, October 31 | NFL Week 8 Betting Notes |
---|---|
Point Spread: | Cleveland Browns +3.5 vs Cincinnati Bengals |
Total: | o/u 47 Points |
Location: | FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH |
Game Time: | 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | ESPN |
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Analysis
AFC North foes face off while they are both trending in opposite directions. The Bengals have won back-to-back games and are starting to look like the team that won the AFC last season. On the other hand, the Browns have lost four straight games and they look as bad as anyone.
The Browns beat the Bengals twice last season, but the Bengals come into this matchup with a lot more confidence. Joe Burrow looks like a star again, and the only thing the Browns have going for them is Nick Chubb. This should be a good game on Monday, and there has been very little movement in the betting market from the opening line.
Bengals Bruising For Another Deep Run
After a slow start to the 2022 campaign, the Bengals look like a team that can contend in the AFC for a second straight season. Their defense has been good all season long and their offense is finding its form.
The Bengals’ offense was sluggish to start the year and they had issues running the football and throwing down the field, and Burrow continued to get beat up. He has been sacked the 2nd most times in the NFL this year, but he and the team are improving around him.
On a per-drive basis, the Bengals are 13th in field position, 5th in time, 8th in plays, 9th in yards, and 7th in points.
They still struggle with allowing sacks, pressures, and running the ball, but their receivers are getting open and Burrow has done a great job finding his playmakers. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in 3rd down conversions and 8th in red zone percentage.
While the Bengals’ offense has picked it up as of late, their defense has been good all year long. DC Lou Anarumo is one of the best in the NFL, and he deserves his flowers.
They are middle of the pack in pressures and sacks, but they stop the run and they do a great job adjusting their defense to thwart the opposing offense.
On a per-drive basis, the Bengals are 16th in field position, 6th in drive time, 14th in plays, 12th in yards, and 9th in points. Nothing overtly crazy, but a very solid unit nonetheless.
If the Bengals can keep Burrow off his back and their defense can keep this up, this team is scary. Their offensive line needs to improve, but either way, this team puts itself in a position to succeed week in and week out.
Cleveland Desperate For Watson to Return
The Browns started the season looking like they could maybe have a winning record when Deshaun Watson returned. Now, 7 weeks in, they are a losing team with not many things going their way. Their offense is one-dimensional, their defense can’t stop anyone, and their special teams are bad.
On offense is where the Browns excel.On a per-drive basis, Cleveland is 6th in time, 4th in plays, 4th in yards, and 8th in points, but they struggle on third down and they leave too many points on the table.
Cleveland does a good job keeping Brissett clean and he hasn’t turned the ball over a ton, but they cannot rely solely on Nick Chubb, even though he is of course fantastic.
When Clevland falls behind, their passing game is not strong enough to get them back into the game, and they fall behind a ton since their defense cannot hold up their end of the bargain.
On a per-drive basis, the Browns allow just the 2nd most time and 3rd most plays, but they are 15th in yards and 26th in points allowed. This is due to the fact that they are 28th in average defensive drive starting field position.
This team is in the bottom third of pressure rate and sack rate and their inability to affect opposing QBs is why they allow so many yards. They do not get enough sacks or turnovers to give the ball back to their offense in advantageous positions.
They are 14th in third-down defense and 17th in red zone, which is okay, but there is a ton to be desired on this side of the ball for Cleveland. They let up most of their points in the 2nd and 4th quarters meaning they come out strong but they are incapable of adjusting to other teams while the opposition adjusts to them.
The Browns are not as bad as their record, but they are not good either. 3.5 points is a lot in a divisional game, especially since the Browns have the Bengals’ number, but in terms of performance so far this season, this is an uphill climb for Cleveland.
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction
If Nick Chubb can run all over this defense, the Browns have a chance. I’m not so sure it will be that simple of course, but as I said earlier, the Browns live and die on the ground.
If the Bengals can get out to an early lead, it is tough to see the Browns coming back and winning this game. However, it does not mean they can’t keep this game to a field goal.
In their Week 9 beatdown of the Bengals last season, the Browns forced three turnovers and Nick Chubb ran all over Cincinnati. The Bengals will be expecting this, and they should be able to adjust.
All the stats point to the Bengals winning this football game, and I do not disagree, but I think the Browns cover 3.5 points. Their backs are against the wall, they have talent, they are sometimes well-coached, and they have a game plan to beat Cincinnati.
Prediction: Cleveland Browns +3.5
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 8
Don’t just stop at this Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this cross-conference clash between the Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 8 games, including this Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals showdown, from your desktop or phone.
**************************************************
Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?
- Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
- Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
- Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Free NFL Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.
Make sure to bookmark all the above!