NFL Week 8 Betting Preview
Every Tuesday during the NFL regular season, SuperBook Sports releases their look-ahead lines for the following week, about 10-12 days before those games kick-off. Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly offers his analysis of the NFL Week 8 opening lines, and what bettors should be watching for in this weekend’s games.
NFL Week 8 as of Thursday, October 20 | Courtesy of SuperBook Sports |
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Baltimore Ravens +3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | o/u 44 |
Arizona Cardinals +6.5 at Minnesota Vikings | o/u 47.5 |
Denver Broncos +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars | o/u 40 |
New England Patriots -1 at New York Jets | o/u 40 |
Chicago Bears +10 at Dallas Cowboys | o/u 43 |
Las Vegas Raiders PK at New Orleans Saints | o/u 44 |
New York Giants +1 at Seattle Seahawks | o/u 43 |
Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Atlanta Falcons | o/u 41 |
Washington Commanders +6 at Indianapolis Colts | o/u 42.5 |
Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 at Philadelphia Eagles | o/u 44 |
San Francisco 49ers +2.5 at Los Angeles Rams | o/u 40 |
Miami Dolphins -3 at Detroit Lions | o/u 49 |
Green Bay Packers +8 at Buffalo Bills | o/u 48 |
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 at Cleveland Browns | o/u 45 |
Using NFL Look-Ahead Lines
Every week, before I look at the spreads and totals for the upcoming week, I set my own spreads and totals based on my power rankings so I can compare them to the SuperBook’s lines.
This process is a great exercise for both professional and new bettors, and I recommend all NFL bettors attempt to set their own lines. Taking these steps allows me to check the strength of my power ratings, find edges, and build an understanding of how the market views each team from week to week.
After the Week 7 games are completed, I readjust my spreads and totals based on the new information from that past week, then I compare these numbers to the updated spreads and totals for that week.
Using that information, I have a picture painted of where I thought spreads and total should sit in the first place if I believe these numbers will rise or fall, and if I have an edge over the market or if I am completely mispriced compared to the market.
NFL Week 7 Odds Analysis
Baltimore Ravens at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Thursday Night Football
My Projections: Tampa Bay -3, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Baltimore +3, O/U 44
I was spot on with the spread here, and close enough with the total, and I think this game is fairly priced. These are two of the top six teams in DVOA so far and I expect both of them to win in Week 7. I do not expect much movement here and I think this pricing will stay pretty firm even after this week.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings
My Projections: Minnesota -4, O/U 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Arizona +6.5, O/U 47.5
I was spot on with the total, but I have this spread being closer. Arizona is flat-out bad right now, and the Vikings are winning games, but I am not convinced that Minnesota is good this season. I expect this game to close at MIN -5 or 5.5, which would be a good spot to back Arizona after Week 7.
Denver Broncos at Jacksonville Jaguars
My Projections: Jacksonville -1, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Denver +3, O/U 40
I had the Jags as smaller favorites, but if Russell Wilson is out, this spread makes sense. I was two points off the total, and I agree with the market here. The Bronco’s defense is keeping them alive while the Jaguars’ defense has been sound all season. How these teams both perform in Week 6 against hot opponents may certainly alter this line. I can see this game having a ton of movement after Week 6 is over.
New England Patriots at New York Jets
My Projections: New England -3, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New York Jets +1, O/U 40
I had the Patriots as bigger favorites, and while I always respect the market, I think they have this one wrong. New England knows how to stop Zack Wilson and their run defense improves week in and week out. If the Jets put up a stinker in Week 7, this line will reopen closer to my projections. I am two points off on the total and I expect that to rise closer to my number as well.
Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys
My Projections: Dallas -7.5, O/U 41
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Chicago +10, O/U 43
I had the Cowboys as over a touchdown favorite, but the market sees Dallas as a double-digit favorite. I expect this number to reopen somewhere in the middle of my number and the markets. The Cowboys will certainly be able to pressure Justin Fields, but 10 points is a ton. As for the total, I think 43 is a more accurate number than my own.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans
My Projections: Tennessee -5.5, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Houston +3, O/U 41
I have the Titans as bigger favorites in this game, and I have a much higher total. Neither of these teams has played well despite the Titans winning three games as of writing this. As a divisional game, they are always closer, but I expected the Titans to be bigger favorites on the road. Depending on how the Texans do in Week 7, this line may grow a little bit bigger.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints
My Projections: New Orleans -2.5, O/U 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead Las Vegas PK, O/U 44
I had the Saints as slight favorites in this game, and if their team is able to get healthy, I agree with my projections compared to the market. I was also off on the total here, but I think that will go up also. These teams play no defense and rely on explosive offense to win. If the Saints are not favored, you can bet that the total will increase after Week 7.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks
My Projections: Seattle -1.5, O/U 46
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: New York +1, O/U 43
I had this line on point, but I am three points off on the total. Both of these teams struggle defensively so I expect the total to climb closer to my projections. As for the spread, if the Giants can beat the Jaguars, regardless of what happens in the Seattle game, I think this spread will flip to the Giants being the favorite.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
My Projections: Atlanta -6, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Panthers +6.5, O/U 41
I am on point with the spread as well as the total here. I do not expect much movement in this game no matter what happens in Week 7. The Falcons are playing exceptionally well and the Panthers are the worst team in the NFL. What keeps this line so close is the fact that they are divisional foes, so for that reason, I do not anticipate a ton of movement in the market.
Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts
My Projections: Indianapolis -4, O/U 42.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Washington +6, O/U 42.5
I was on point with the total here, but I was off two points on the spread. I think the market has this one correct. The Commanders and Colts have tough Week 7 matchups, but I think the Colts will fare better than the Commanders. I can see this line sitting at 6 or 6.5 points when Week 8 kicks off.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Philadelphia Eagles
My Projections: Philadelphia -7, O/U 42
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Pittsburgh +9.5, O/U 44
The Eagles are a juggernaut and they will be coming off a bye here, but the Steelers are the proudest team in the NFL. While the Eagles are certainly better, 9.5 points seem like way too many. After Week 7, I expect this line to come down closer to PHI -7 and not to win by more than one possession. I think this total will come down as well given how good these teams can be on the defensive side of the ball.
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
My Projections: San Francisco -1.5, O/U 40.5
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: San Francisco +2.5, O/U 40
I am on point with the total here, but I have this game completely flipped. I have the Niners as favorites because their defensive line will give Stafford a ton of trouble. This reminds me of the primetime game these two teams played earlier in the season. The Rams are favorites now, but after Week 7, I expect the 49ers to be favorites.
Miami Dolphins at Detroit Lions
My Projections: Miami -3, O/U 48
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Detroit +3, O/U 49
I was spot on with the spread and a point off on the total. I don’t see anything in Week 7 drastically changing the outlook of this game and I am happy to be aligned with the betting market on this game.
Green Bay Packers at Buffalo Bills – Sunday Night Football
My Projections: Buffalo -8.5, O/U 44
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Green Bay +8, O/U 48
I was on point with the spread and the total here, and I am not shocked. Brian Flores may want his revenge on Miami, but his team is really not talented enough defensively without T.J. Watt. I do think this number will come down slightly to MIA -5, especially if Pickett can move the ball in Week 6 against the Bucs.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns – Monday Night Football
My Projections: Cincinnati -3, O/U 40
SuperBook’s Look-Ahead: Cleveland +2.5, O/U 45
I had the Bengals are three-point favorites, and the market has them at 2.5, so we are close there. Obviously, three is a key number, and I expect this game to close at 3 and not 2.5. Both of these teams have tough games in Week 7 but, barring injury, I do not see this line moving a ton after this week.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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