Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Betting Preview: Game Analysis
On Sunday afternoon, the 3-4 Commanders head to Indy to take on the 3-3-1 Colts. Will Sam Ellinger prove to be more effective than Matt Ryan? Can Taylor Heinicke lead Washington to a second straight win? Sportsmemo NFL handicapper Eric Pauly shares his thoughts and makes a free, expert Washington Commanders vs. Indianapolis Colts Week 8 betting pick.
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Betting Pick – What Are the Best Odds?
Sunday, October 30 | NFL Week 8 Betting Notes |
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Point Spread: | Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Washington Commanders |
Total: | o/u 40 Points |
Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN |
Game Time: | 4:25pm ET / 1:25pm PT (Odds Above Courtesy of DraftKings) |
TV: | FOX |
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Analysis
After another tough loss to a divisional foe and another lackluster performance, the Colts have decided to bench Matt Ryan, their prized trade acquisition this past summer. This move is puzzling. Yes, Ryan had 9 picks through 7 games but he also had 9 touchdowns and 2008 yards, but he was sacked 24 times.
For the Commanders, Carson Wentz has played poorly so far this year, but he broke his finger, so Washington did not choose to bench him. Wentz was also sacked 24 times this year before he got hurt. Taylor Heinicke, last year’s starter, will suit up for his second start and look for his second win in a row.
Heinicke did a great job avoiding the rush and making plays with his feet in his first start, and maybe that is what the Colts expect Ellingher to do as well. Ryan and Wentz both look like statues in the pocket and they lack the ability to get away from the rush.
Heinicke Back At The Helm
Washington beat the Green Bay Packers last week at home, and it was a much-needed win for the now 3-4 Commanders. However, while it was a nice win, it was not a defiant win by any means. Green Bay had a touchdown called back, they muffed a punt, and they still almost won.
Washington was able to get their run game going and that is a great sign, and while Heinicke had two TD passes for 201 yards, he averaged just 6.1yards per attempt and his lack of arm strength reared its head again.
The good news is he was sacked just one time and only had one turnover, which was lucky because he could have easily had at least two more. On a per-drive basis, Washington’s offense still struggles. They are 31st in field position, 23rd in time, 26th in plays, and 29th in yards and points.
Washington’s defense has gotten better throughout the season, but there is still a lot to be desired from this unit.
Aaron Rodgers only threw for 194 yards last week, but a myriad of drops and unforced errors made this total lower than it seems. On a per-drive basis, this defense is 26th in starting field position, 1st in time, 1st in plays, 9th in yards, and 12th in points, which is excellent.
Washington’s defense can almost assuredly shut down whatever Sam Ehlinger throws, or runs, at them, but their offense needs to get it going.
Heinicke had some great moments and some awful ones last week, which is what we have come to expect from him, but he needs to improve for Washington to win this week.
The Colts defense is what has kept them in games and has them sitting at .500 for the season.
Can Sam Ehlinger Turn Colts Offense Around?
The Colts were embarrassed by the Titans yet again last week, and they made the decision to move on from Matt Ryan and start sophomore QB, Sam Ehlinger. Ehlinger has yet to throw a pass in an NFL game and in his career he has three rushes for nine yards and that’s it.
Their inability to get the run game going is certainly something worth noting. On a per-drive basis, the Colts are 15th in average field position, 10th in time, 7th in plays, and 19th in yards, but just 28th in points per drive.
On third down, they are 16th in converting and they are 22nd in the red zone. With Ehlinger under center, I do not know how much this can change.
Ryan was sacked 24 times and maybe Ehlinger can avoid the rush and make plays with his feet, but getting this offense jump-started seems like a tall task for basically a rookie.
The Colts defense is what has kept them in games and has them sitting at .500 for the season. This is a formidable unit that has played well this season and has held up in all of its games, especially against the Chiefs, but besides that, they have not played any high-powered offenses.
Not to say Washington is one, but still, there is a lot to be desired from this unit, despite how well they have played so far.
The Colts’ defense will need to be all over Heinicke, which they can do, but it is up to their offense to get this team on the right foot. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders Prediction
This game had a lookahead line of Colts -6, it dropped to -5, then when Ryan was benched, it settled in at Colts -3. The total dropped from 41.5 to 40 and I think that is a great number.
Unless both defenses score, which is possible, I do not see how this game goes over. Each team will be pounding the rock on the ground and praying their QB does not throw an interception whenever they drop back to pass or are running around outside of the pocket.
For this reason, I love the under. I also love Washington as a teaser leg. The only way they lose by 10 or more is if the Colts have a late defensive touchdown. Again, this is very possible, but Washington can also win outright, so I love them in teasers this weekend.
Prediction: Under 40 points Scored
Bonus Prediction: Tease Commanders From -3 to +3 in six-point teaser
Opening Line Report | NFL Week 8
Don’t just stop at this Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders betting pick! Listen to Teddy Covers and Drew Martin every Monday during the NFL season as they preview opening lines for next week’s games. This past Monday they previewed this cross-conference clash between the Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders among other games giving their expert betting analysis.
NFL Odds Board
WagerTalk’s Live Odds Screen features up-to-the-minute lines from a variety of offshore and domestic sports books. Track the NFL point spreads, totals and betting percentages for all of the Week 8 games, including this Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders showdown, from your desktop or phone.
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Meet the Author
Eric Pauly, @slimeaction on Twitter, graduated from Binghamton University with a degree in Finance. Eric is a die-hard Washington Commanders and New York Knicks fan and enjoys watching and writing about the NFL, NBA and MLB. His favorite gambling movements include hitting a +1000 future on Washington to win the NFC East in 2020 and predicting Jonathan Taylor’s breakout season with a +900 ticket for him to win the 2021 NFL rushing title. Aside from the sports betting industry, and making a brilliant Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers betting pick, Eric also enjoys good eats, dynasty fantasy football leagues, daily fantasy sports and playing the guitar.
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