FINNs NBA EAST BIG TICKET TOTAL – Boston at Miami Over the Total of 204.5 | The over-under position in South Beach is good Over 206 or fewer points.
4% game rating
Venue: Kaseya Center in Miami, FL
Referees: James Williams, Mark Lindsay, and Jacyn Goble – This trio of officials isn't going to assist a game to walk, run, or play out as it is not expected to, or rather it won't be a game that is played against the grain or in an unusual style … not because of the three-man/woman crew. They will officiate the matchup to a postseason level that is typical, and physical, but expecting a large number of free throw attempts - something above the East rivals' season averages is unreasonable.
Boston Celtics Starting Lineup
PG – Jrue Holiday
SG – D White
SF – J. Brown
PF – J. Tatum
C – K. Porzingis
Celtics Injuries
No injuries of significance to report
Miami Heat Starting Lineup
PG – Tyler Herro
SG – J. Jaquez
SF – C. Martin
PF – N. Jovic
C – Bam Adebayo
Heat Injuries
F – J. Butler (knee/out)
G – T. Rozier (neck/out)
G – D. Wright (personal/out)
The Heat shot above their pay grade from the 3-line in Game 2 at TD Garden. The Heat connected on 23-of-43 shooting performance from beyond the arc. If you are expecting Caleb Martin and Tyler Herro combined to go 11-of-17 (64.7%) from deep then I recommend you play an alternate total, in the neighborhood of 214.5, and play it to the north side of the number. The return on this alternate total should be in the 'hood of 2:1.
There are few NBA pundits that are more captivated by the history and the coaching style of Erik Spoelstra. I preface that infatuation with the bare naked truth, however, as I am not one that considers Coach Spo a genius.
I am not only comfortable laying the number with Boston I am even more at home playing north of the current 204.5 or 205 total. I mentioned more than once that if Miami finds a way to cover, let alone win a game in this series, it would happen with an unconscious shooting percentage from distance.
Be careful what you ask for. Right?
Here is what is real, what is expected, and what will transpire today, this mid-to-late afternoon matchup in South Beach.
Miami is the home team and they will attempt and most likely be successful in controlling the tempo.
Neither of these teams intentionally goes out of their way to run an offensive transition off a missed shot. Both are more comfortable with iso-offense which is not executed by picking up the pace and setting up early shot-clock looks from the corners.
Boston is a high-volume shooting team but they are not that team, rather they do not play that style by pushing the pace or morphing into a mode that can be deemed transition offense.
The pace of this game will be similar to the first two played out at TD Garden. There will be, however, a large number of shots from beyond the three-line.
The first game in this series opened 211-to-212 depending on the genre - stateside or offshore - and this contest, being back in South Beach has taken on a life of its own, or remained stable, holding serve, in nothing short of an adjustment gone too far.
FINNs NBA EAST BIG TICKET TOTAL - Boston at Miami Total Over 204.5 (-110)