ESPN SUN NITE BASEBALL PRIVATE PLAY - Chicago Cubs +128 | List Wesneski and Houck | The money line position on the visiting Chicago Cubs at Fenway is good with a play on the Cubs at +110 or better.
4% game rating
Starting Pitchers: List Wesneski and Houck
Home Plate Umpire: Larry Vanover is a veteran of MLB game night wars and his home plate assignment tonight is the 451st of his Major League Baseball career. Vanover grades out as pitcher-friendly in a variety of ways with his largest boost for pitchers coming in the form of a larger than-league average Kzone and a near 20 percent increase in strikeouts, above a pitcher's season and/or career game night average.
Venue: Fenway Park in Boston, MA
Weather: The Boston forecast tonight inside Fenway Park calls for a first-pitch temperature of 60 degrees with no precipitation expected. Cloudy skies and a breeze blowing from home plate to the Green Monster between 5-10 mph will be a constant throughout tonight's ESPN MLB Feature event.
Baseball clients who have been with me the entire season know I am high on the 28-year-old Red Sox starter Houck. Also, those who have read most of my Red Sox analysis understand the recently landed new head of baseball operations hired 39-year-old Andrew Bailey to oversee the Major League club's pitching staff. Bailey was with the Giants and had been working with a staff that didn't expect to produce and the contrary took place under the guidance of Bailey.
Command is the issue for Houck in the new-look and pitch mix he has presented this season. Tonight's opponent, the Cubs, has been money versus pitchers with command issues ... much like Houck. The Red Sox starter has allowed a lot of hard contact to this point but for the most part, the hard contact has come inside of his heavy-ground ball pitching profile. Houck will be hit and miss this season having to work in front of a less-than steady or reliable Red Sox infield without Story.
Wesneski is in hard and true with a new-look pitching profile. Where and who has assisted the young reliever turning starter for the Cubs?
The same individual I just offered butt slaps to, the now and new head of baseball operations in Boston, Craig Breslow.
Former San Diego Padres pitcher Craig Breslow did for the Chicago Cubs, what he is now doing for the Red Sox. What he is doing is a complete overhaul of pitching profiles getting away from fastballs, four-seam fastballs, and utilizing more off-speed or breaking fastballs.
The 26-year-old Cubs' righthander worked 89.1 innings last season with the big-league club and had a 4.63 ERA with a 5.48 FIP. A period that he was making the Breslow transition and experimenting, rather than implementing the change in pitch mix. Wesneski has increased his slider usage. It began last season and it has become glaringly obvious this season. If you watch or glance at the pitch chart of his first two starts you will find his focus is on utilizing the breaking fastball, or Slider, and I am a believer.
Despite Houck’s success this season my lean to supporting Houck in the right situation tonight is not that correct lean. Wesneski and the Cubs at the dog price is equal to stealing money.
Chicago Cubs +128 | List Wesneski and Houck