FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION XI- DraftKings SGP 1st Five / Game Result: 1st 5: Tie/Seattle Mariners Win | +950
1% parlay rating
Starting Pitchers: List Kirby and Blanco
Home Plate Umpire: Adrian Johnson is hitter-friendly. Of the current active umpires with a minimum of 200 career home plate assignments only Carlos Torres and Mark Wegner have a higher Runs Per Game average than Johnson. Johnson is scheduled to work his 476th career assignment behind the dish tonight in Houston.
Johnson's home plate assignment at Minute Maid Park since 2022 has found the veteran ump having graded balls and strikes on three occasions. Two of the three games went Over the closing Total.
The veteran of almost 500 home plate assignments has begun this 2024 campaign like he has finished many before him. His 1.81 SO/Walk ratio in five appearances is the lowest in the league through the end of April. Since 2010, across his last fourteen years as an MLB ump, Johnson has a single season in which he recorded more under the total finals in an official game than over the total final scores. That solo season was in 2013 when Johnson had a record of 16-17 (over-under) overall.
Kirby is a strike-thrower and doesn't need assistance from an umpire to register strikeouts. The same cannot be said for Blanco who owns a near 4.0 BB/9 innings ratio in his career.
Kirby benefits in his matchup against Blanco tonight with home plate umpire Johnson managing the game.
Venue: Minute Maid Park in Houston, TX
Weather: The forecast for Houston calls for cloudy skies, no precipitation; first-pitch temps in the mid-70s. There is a light breeze blowing from home plate to left-centerfield. There has yet to be an announcement of the Minute Maid roof status but open or closed the impact of the weather should not have an overwhelming influence in tonight's final result.
The Game 1 lineup cards have been turned in by both managers.
Seattle Mariners
3B Josh Rojas LH
CF J. Rodriguez RH
2B J. Polanco Switch
RF M. Haniger RH
C Cal Raleigh Swith
1B Ty France RH
DH Mitch Garver RH
LF Luke Raley LH
SS Dylan Moore RH
Starting Pitcher:
George Kirby RH
3-2 4.18 ERA
Houston Astros
2B Jose Altuve RH
RF Kyle Tucker LH
DH Y. Alvarez LH
3B Alex Bregman RH
SS Jeremy Pena RH
C Yainer Diaz RH
1B J. Singleton LH
LF J. Loperfido LH
CF M. Dubon RH
Starting Pitcher:
Ronel Blanco RH
3-0 1.65 ERA
Mark this as gospel if you will; I am neither the end-all to baseball forecasting nor should anyone bank their life's work, savings if you will, on any individual who makes bold statements about where a franchise will be or rate at the end of September in the first week of May. MLB has completed 30-something games in 2024, meaning there are 130-something contests left in the regular season.
Yes, there is a lot of baseball yet to play.
However ... make no mistake about this.
Yes, Houston has won 4 of their last five, but still sits at the bottom of the AL West standings .. tied with the Anaheim Halos .. in today's orbit .. the Los Angeles Angels.
Houston is not ... I repeat ... not in good form despite the last five games they have played. This Astros squad is making poor decisions at the plate, situational decisions mind you. They are undisciplined and difficult to watch ... aesthetically they are unattractive to the experienced eye.
The showdown between divisional foes will play out inside Minute Maid Park with the first pitch scheduled for 8:10 PM ET -- 5:10 pm real-time... Vegas Time.
George Kirby, 3-2, 4.18 ERA, will get the start for the Mariners.
The Astros counter with Ronel Blanco, 3-0, 1.65 ERA.
Seattle is 8-2 in its last 10 games against Houston.
The Mariners are coming off a series win over the NL East-leading Braves. The series victory over Atlanta is Seattle's fifth straight series win.
This Seattle group has won five of their last seven and backing them comes with momentum, as well, the risk that the Mariners offense will continue to struggle with swings and misses versus right-handed pitching. No team in the Bigs has a higher strikeout rate vs RHP than this Seattle group.
Ronel Blanco is coming off a start in which he struck out eight batters in 5.2 innings against the Colorado Rockies. The young Houston right-hander has reached at least seven K's in two of his five starts this season.
I am not the only MLB pundit surprised to find Blanco throwing a no-hitter in his season debut. All things equal Blanco has never been viewed as an elite prospect and despite his 3-0 mark and 1.65 ERA through five turns he still doesn't rate as one of my top 50 starters currently a part of one of the 30 MLB franchises.
It isn't a stretch to believe that Blanco is pitching above his pay grade. The righty is outperforming his skill set and in a far-reaching fashion defying expectations.
Let us make no mistake, Blanco is in line for some pending negative regression, be it tonight or tomorrow, it will rear its ugly mug.
Blanco's fastball and changeup arsenal have been good enough to work in 2024. The Houston righthander has been fortunate to a large degree but greatly benefited considering he owns a FIP of 3.46 and 4.24 xFIP.
The situation tonight offers the visiting Mariners several edges that cannot be denied. Blanco faces a situation in which he could still finish north of his Strikeouts Thrown line, 5.5 Over with a buck-30 juice or 6.5 Over at plus-money.
Blanco has provided some clutch moments for the Astros. He provided a quality start against the Rangers in early April that ended an Astros four-game losing streak. In four of Blanco's five starts Houston has earned game victories. That the Astros have won only 11 games on the season speaks to what Blanco has provided an injury-riddled pitching staff.
The high altitude of Mexico City didn’t scare Blanco - he came within an out-of-a-quality start.
However, one cannot ignore Blanco’s career 8.27 K/9 - which is pedestrian; as well, as his 3.86 BB/9 which is more likely to show up than not tonight with umpire Johnson working home plate.
The young righty cannot sustain his current results
The M's Kirby is a strike-throwing machine. Kirby issued walks to only 2.5 percent of batters faced last year in 190.1 innings pitched.
Kirby's strike-throwing is not a revelation. It is who Kirby has been in his amateur and professional career.
Since his poor outings versus the Guardians and the Blue Jays to begin April consider Kirby to be Kirby.
The Mariners right-hander has thrown 18 innings and surrendered 12 hits and two earned runs. Kerby has allowed just one home run and he's struck out 25 against just two walks.
Of the position players that Kirby has faced in his career with the Mariners one should have confidence he can handle what I am labeling a scuffling Houston offense.
Jose Altuve is 2 of 8 while Yordon Alverez is 0 for 7 vs the Mariners right-hander. Currently, Alverez is lost at the plate. I have not viewed Alvirez at any point in his six Big League seasons so indecisive in the batter's box.
Alex Bregman is 1 for 11 with three K's and Pena is 2- for 10 vs Kirby.
Kirby has 55 official plate appearances against the current Houston roster. In those 55 at-bats, he has allowed 12 hits. Not one of the 12 hits is for extra bases. Yes, all 12 are singles. Kirby has struck out 12 of the 55 and issued but two walks. The Houston player personnel have walked only twice and recorded one RBI vs Kirby and his three seasons with the mothership.
Watching this Seattle squad move from short underdog to short road chalk tonight would not come as a surprise.
FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION XI- DraftKings SGP 1st Five / Game Result: 1st 5: Tie/Seattle Mariners Win | +950
1% parlay rating
As noted in the introduction of this Dead President Report coversheet above;
The complete outline of Tony Finn's DPR positions for this contest is below
Once you receive this Dead President Cover Page (this first page and outline of the entire report) you may find time isn't your friend – use the outline below - a user-friendly list of Tony Finn's DPR positions. The complete and detailed analysis for each of these official Dead President Report entries can take as little as 5 minutes or as much as 15 minutes to be completely transferred/forwarded and land in your email inbox – Good luck tonight, to both, all of us, with this Dead President Report.
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1. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE DEAD PREZ REPORT POSITION I - Seattle Mariners +103 | List Kirby and Blanco
4% game rating
2. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION II- Seattle Mariners Alternate RL -1.5 (+154) | List Kirby and Blanco
2% game rating
3. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION III- Seattle Mariners Alternate RL -2.5 (+228) | List Kirby and Blanco
1% game rating
4. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION IV - 1st Half Seattle Mariners -110 | List Kirby and Blanco
2% game rating
5. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION V - George Kirby to Record a Win? YES (+150)
2% prop rating
6. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION VI - Ronel Blanco Outs Recorded Under 17.5 (-135)
2% prop rating
7. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION VII - George Kirby Strikeouts Thrown Over 4.5 (-145) | Kirby must start and throw at least one pitch for the Strikeouts Thrown Prop to be in play.
2% game rating
Note: You will find a second George Kirby Strikeouts Thrown Prop. I used the 5.5 Over sportsbook numbers for my SportsMemo homepage free play. Play both or choose one or the other. On record, I pushed in on both and have a 4% play on Kirby's Strikeouts Thrown.
8. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION VIII - Ronel Blanco Walks Allowed Over 2.5 (+130)
2% prop rating
9. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION IX- Julio Rodriguez Alternate Hits X+ Hits 2+ (+230)
1% prop rating
10. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION X- Seattle Winning Margin: Mariners To Win by 4+ Runs (+340)
1% prop rating
11. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION XI- DraftKings SGP 1st Five / Game Result: 1st 5: Tie/Seattle Mariners Win | +950
1% parlay rating
12. FINNs AMERICAN LEAGUE MLB DEAD PRESIDENT POSITION XII - Tony Finn's DraftKings 3-Picks Same-Game Parlay: George Kirby Strikeouts Thrown Over 4.5 / Ronel Blanco Walks Allowed Over 2.5 / Seattle Mariners run line -1.5 | +625
1% parlay rating