Tom's CFB Ironclad Play of the Day

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Arizona Cardinals -6.5 (-110)

Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers struggled significantly in their last outing, with the offensive line failing to provide adequate protection, leading to a disjointed offensive performance. Defensively, Carolina was unable to contain the run, exposing a critical vulnerability. In contrast, Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals showcased a strong performance last week, particularly at home, where Murray tends to excel. The Cardinals' robust rushing attack is poised to exploit Carolina’s defensive weaknesses against the run, likely creating significant problems for the Panthers. Carolina’s defense also lacks an effective pass rush, which should give Murray ample time in the pocket to make plays. Meanwhile, Young has consistently struggled in road games, and there’s little indication of a turnaround this week. Arizona has a strong recent trend, going 6-1 against the spread (ATS) in their last seven games against NFC South opponents and covering in their last three home openers. The Cardinals are well-positioned to build on their momentum at home, while the Panthers are likely to continue their road struggles. Given these factors, Arizona is the clear choice to cover the spread. Pick: Cardinals -6.5

Let's cash some tickets!

The PLAY: Minnesota -120

Both the Minnesota Golden Gophers and California Golden Bears enter this matchup undefeated at 2-0, with each team standing at 1-1 against the spread (ATS). However, neither squad has faced formidable opponents thus far, making this game a critical early-season test. This marks Minnesota's first road game of 2025, adding an extra layer of challenge.

California boasts a potent passing attack, which could exploit weaknesses in Minnesota’s secondary. However, Minnesota counters with a well-rounded offense, blending a strong rushing game with efficient passing, and an elite defense that ranks among the nation’s best in limiting points and yards. Additionally, Minnesota’s disciplined play—evidenced by fewer penalties and turnovers—gives them an edge in maintaining control and avoiding costly mistakes.

Despite recent market movement favoring California, Minnesota remains the stronger side as road favorites. Their balanced attack, defensive prowess, and disciplined execution make them the smart bet in this late night showdown. Back the Gophers to cover the spread in a hard-fought victory. Let's cash some tickets!

The PLAY: Zach Ertz Over 31.5 Receiving Yards

Zach Ertz fell short of his 31.5 receiving yards total last week, likely due to limited necessity in the game plan. However, against a Green Bay defense that consistently struggles to cover tight ends, Ertz’s role as a reliable pass-catcher makes him a prime target for Jayden Daniels, especially as a safety valve under pressure. Expect an increased target share, pushing Ertz comfortably over the 31.5-yard mark this week. Let's cash some tickets!