Tom's TNF Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

The PLAY: Total Under 42.5 (-110)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-0, 1-1 ATS) vs. Minnesota Vikings (1-1, 1-1 ATS)
Week 3
Sunday, September 21, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis Betting Trends Vikings: 6-2 ATS as home favorites since 2024
Bengals: 1-4 ATS in games without Joe Burrow since 2023

Game Preview
Initially projected as a clash of offensive firepower featuring LSU alumni Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson, this matchup has shifted dramatically due to injuries. With key absences on both sides, expect a gritty, low-scoring battle dominated by defenses and backup quarterbacks.
Recent Performances
Bengals: Narrowly escaped Jacksonville 31-27 in Week 2, sealed by a last-second touchdown.
Vikings: Fell 22-6 to Atlanta, plagued by offensive struggles and turnovers.

Injury Impact
Bengals: Joe Burrow (Grade 3 turf toe, Week 2) is sidelined for 3+ months. Jake Browning takes over, showing promise in relief (18/23, 213 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs last week). Browning previously kept Cincinnati competitive in 2023, narrowly missing the playoffs. The offense remains potent with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, but the defense ranks average (16th in points allowed).

Vikings: Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy (ankle sprain, Week 2) is doubtful. McCarthy struggled (under 160 yards per start, 2 INTs last week), so veteran Carson Wentz steps in. Wentz’s 2024 Rams stint showed flashes (89.1 passer rating) but inconsistency (4 INTs in 5 games). Minnesota’s defense, elite against the pass (5th in points allowed in 2024), forced 4 turnovers in Week 2 despite the loss. Justin Jefferson could exploit Cincinnati’s secondary, though Wentz’s limited mobility caps the offense’s ceiling.

Key Matchup Analysis
Minnesota’s defense thrives on confusing quarterbacks (3rd in takeaways since 2023). Browning, pressured on 22% of dropbacks, lacks Burrow’s escapability, making him vulnerable to Flores’ aggressive scheme. Conversely, Wentz benefits from Jefferson’s elite play (4th in PFF receiving grade) and a revamped offensive line but struggles with consistency. The Vikings’ superior coaching and defensive edge (5th in points allowed) should stifle Cincinnati’s attack, while the Bengals’ middling defense may bend against Jefferson

.Prediction

This shapes up as a defensive slugfest, with both offenses hampered by backup QBs. Minnesota’s home-field advantage, Flores’ scheme, and Jefferson’s matchup against Cincinnati’s secondary tilt the scales. Expect a low-scoring, turnover-heavy game.

Best Bet: Under 42.5 points (-110)

Defenses dominate in a punter’s duel, with neither backup QB sustaining drives against stout pass defenses.

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The PLAY: TCU -6.5 (-115)

SMU @ TCU: Iron Skillet Rivalry Finale
Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas
Kickoff: 12:00 p.m. ET
Broadcast: ESPN2

The 2025 clash marks the final chapter of the storied “Iron Skillet” rivalry between SMU and TCU, a series spanning over a century since 1915. With SMU now in the ACC and conference scheduling priorities ending this tradition, the 105th meeting (TCU leads 52-47-7) promises a thrilling conclusion. Recent games have been competitive, with SMU’s 66-42 rout in 2024 snapping TCU’s two-game streak (41-31 in 2022, 34-17 in 2023). However, SMU struggles as the road team, going 1-4 SU in their last five trips to Fort Worth.

Team Overviews SMU Mustangs (2-1, 0-3 ATS)
SMU, unranked after a No. 17 preseason ranking, boasts wins over East Texas A&M (42-13) and Missouri State (28-10) but fell to Baylor in double overtime. Their offense, led by junior QB Kevin Jennings (70.5% completion, 6 TD, 3 INT), senior RB TJ Harden (6.0 YPC), and WR Romello Brinson (20.9 YPC), averages over 30 points in victories. Defensively, SMU has forced turnovers, including two pick-sixes in their opener, but struggles against Power 4 teams, with a 3-17 SU record in their last 20 games against Big 12 opponents. Kicking inconsistencies, evident in the Baylor loss, remain a concern. SMU is 2-5 ATS in their last seven September games, signaling early-season struggles against the spread.

TCU Horned Frogs (2-0, 2-0 ATS)
TCU enters undefeated, dominating North Carolina (48-14) and Abilene Christian (42-21). QB Josh Hoover (76.2% completion, 9.9 YPA, 6 TD, 1 INT) orchestrates a high-octane offense alongside RB Kevorian Barnes (7.4 YPC) and WR Jordan Dwyer (16.1 YPC). Coach Sonny Dykes’ up-tempo scheme has produced balanced, explosive plays, with both games exceeding the total and wins by 20+ points. While TCU’s defense has been solid, it hasn’t faced an offense as dynamic as SMU’s, setting up a critical test.

Game Analysis This matchup pits two potent offenses against defenses yet to be fully challenged. SMU’s balanced attack, led by Jennings’ efficiency and Harden’s ground game, should keep the game competitive early. However, TCU’s offensive firepower, home-field advantage, and defensive edge give them the upper hand. The Horned Frogs’ tempo and big-play ability, paired with SMU’s road struggles in this rivalry (1-4 SU), suggest TCU will pull away in the second half. Expect a high-scoring affair, as TCU has gone over in five straight September games and both teams’ offenses are clicking.

Betting Recommendation Pick:

TCU -7
Total: Over 64.5

TCU’s momentum and home dominance should secure a comfortable win, but SMU’s offense will contribute enough to push the scoreline past the total in this high-octane rivalry finale.

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