Historically we do our best in the 2nd/3rd QTR of the NFL, which starts on Thursday. Last week was awful (-10u), but we believe in our process - 2x Circa winner and +115 units the last four seasons!
All plays and betting free insights available at farleybets.substack.com!
Early buy WNBA BONUS play inside (Tuesday)!
Member Notes
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| WNBA | (603) Indiana Fever at (604) Las Vegas Aces | 9:30pm EDT - Sep 30/2025 |
The PLAY: Total Under 158.5 (-110)
(603) Indiana Fever at (604) Las Vegas Aces
Total Under 158.5 (-110)
- 2/4 games in this series have fallen under tonight’s number, but this is a game five finale, which will certainly conjure more nerves and more desperate, pesky defense
- In two other WNBA playoff series’ deciding games this year, the total didn’t get close to 150.
- Over their last 10 games, Vegas is the best defense in the WNBA, holding opponents to just 79.3 ppg.
- Vegas is even better over their last five preseason battles (72.8 ppg)
- Indiana isn’t far behind (74.8)
Consultant Bio
Five years ago, right before COVID hit and forced everyone to work from home, I decided to create more content in the sports betting space. After nearly two decades of working in the federal government, I was satisfied with my security but dulled by the lack of passion I had in my 9-5 job, so I was always seeking something more. It occurred to me that, more than any other hobby, I was invested in reading/learning and consuming everything I could about sports and sports betting. Even when I was a little boy, my father brought home “pick-em sheets” for every NFL week, and I tried my hand on several occasions. I remember beating his coworkers more than once.
And even though I had been a winning bettor on my own, I never shared my style or advice. I started writing for a great site called TheOddsBreakers, which broke me onto the public scene and help earn respect from my peers (I hit 58%, 207-152 in my inaugural season as an NBA handicapper).
Then I entered the Circa Millions contest for the first time with only one entry and won 5th place overall in the 2021 NFL season (61-28-1, 68%).
Since then, I’ve written for dozens of sports betting publications and served in myriad roles with sports companies such as The33rdTeam, BetUS, and SportsWagers.ca. I also won in Circa Millions again, achieving 1st place in last year’s third quarter contest ($150k). I have my own podcast, Laying the Points with FarleyBets, which I will resume in the 2025 NFL season. All of my records and plays have been shared transparently, where I’ve accrued 113 units in the NFL and 100 units in the NBA over four seasons, and I continue to contribute my betting thoughts/picks on Substack.