Tom's NFC Best Bet

Today’s Free Picks

Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NFL	(485) Kansas City Chiefs at (486) Jacksonville Jaguars	8:15pm EDT - Oct 6/2025

The PLAY: Take Travis Etienne To Record Over 66.5 Rushing Yards

Travis Etienne Jr. has emerged as one of the NFL's elite running backs through Week 4 of the 2025 season, poised for another standout performance against the Kansas City Chiefs' vulnerable run defense. At EverBank Stadium, where the Jaguars average 144.0 rushing yards per game (4th in the NFL), Etienne is set to dominate in a neutral to favorable game script. Under new head coach Liam Coen, Jacksonville’s revitalized ground game has unlocked Etienne’s potential after a lackluster 2024. As the clear RB1, he’s out touched backup Bhayshul Tuten 65-21, showcasing elite efficiency with 394 rushing yards (3rd league wide) and a league leading 6.1 yards per carry among RBs with 50+ attempts. Etienne has surpassed 66.5 rushing yards in 3 of 4 games (75%), including two 100+ yard outings, and even in his "off" game (56 yards vs. Houston), he scored a touchdown on 16 carries, underscoring his consistent volume.

The Chiefs’ front seven, anchored by Chris Jones, thrives in pass rushing but struggles against the run, ranking 9th worst in explosive run rate allowed and 6th in missed tackles on runs. Etienne’s elusiveness (11th in yards after contact per attempt) and 6.1 YPC exploit these weaknesses, as his efficiency outpaces Kansas City’s average YPC allowed. At home, Etienne averages 112 rushing yards per game across two contests this season. Given his bell cow role, elite efficiency, and a favorable matchup, the 66.5 yard prop is too low—he’s projected for 85-95 yards and has hit similar props (65.5) in 75% of games. This sets up as a prime opportunity for Etienne to fuel Jacksonville’s resurgent ground attack in a high-profile bounce-back spot. 

Prediction: Over 66.5 rushing yards.

 

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NFL	(465) Dallas Cowboys at (466) New York Jets	1:00pm EDT - Oct 5/2025

The PLAY: Take Breece Hall To Record Over 93.5 Rush And Receiving Yards

Rivers is currently showing the best line (93.5 -115)

 

Breece Hall is poised to be the centerpiece of the Jets backfield in Week 5, with a favorable matchup that positions him for a big performance. In his two 100+ scrimmage yard games this season (Weeks 1 and 4), Hall delivered 145 and 111 yards, respectively, comfortably surpassing the threshold. Expect him to see 18-22 touches, providing ample opportunity to exceed his projected output.

Hall's elite receiving ability sets him apart, as evidenced by his third ranked PFF receiving grade among running backs. Over his last three games, he’s hauled in 11 receptions for 70 yards on 15 targets, showcasing his reliability in the passing game. The Cowboys defense is a perfect target for Hall’s skill set, ranking dead last in pass defense (297.3 yards per game) and 30th in receiving yards allowed per pass play to running backs. Dallas has also surrendered the sixth most fantasy points to opposing RBs (25.9 per game), with multiple backs exploiting them for significant receiving production—none of whom boast Hall’s receiving prowess.

Projections peg Hall as the RB9 for Week 5, with an expected 13.5+ fantasy points, driven by 40-50 receiving yards and 50-70 rushing yards. As a true three down back, his usage aligns seamlessly with Dallas defensive vulnerabilities. Playing at home in a game with a high over/under (47.5), and with no injury concerns, this is one of Hall’s premier opportunities of the season. The combination of volume, matchup, and scheme makes the over a compelling choice—Hall’s dynamic playmaking should be on full display.

 

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
NFL	(467) Las Vegas Raiders at (468) Indianapolis Colts	1:00pm EDT - Oct 5/2025

The PLAY: Take Ashton Jeanty To Record Over 0.5 Touchdowns

Ashton Jeanty showcased his dynamic skill set in a standout performance last week, scoring three touchdowns (one rushing, two receiving). His ability to break tackles as a runner and excel as a pass catcher makes him a versatile weapon. Chip Kelly should maximize Jeanty’s impact by designing plays like screens and quick passes to exploit his elusiveness. Jeanty’s redzone prowess makes him a significant threat, particularly against the Colts, whose linebackers struggle to contain agile backs in open space and whose secondary has been vulnerable to big plays off checkdowns. As the Raiders lead back, Jeanty will have ample opportunities to capitalize on these mismatches, setting the stage for a potentially dominant performance.

 

Take Ashton Jeanty Over 0.5 Touchdown -110

 

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(401) Nevada at (402) Fresno State	10:30pm EDT - Oct 4/2025

The PLAY: Fresno State -13.5 (-109)

Nevada vs. Fresno State: Game Preview and Prediction
Date & Time: October 4, 2025, 10:30 PM EDT
Location: Valley Children's Stadium, Fresno, CA
Broadcast: CBSSN (CBS Sports Network)

Team Overview
Nevada Wolf Pack (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS, 1-3 O/U)
Record Breakdown: 1-1 ATS on the road, 0-0 in conference play
Recent Performance: Lost 16-31 at Western Kentucky
Next Game: Hosts San Diego State

Offense: Struggles significantly, averaging just 15 PPG (among the nation’s worst). The rushing attack shows promise with 753 yards (led by RB Savion Red, 5.3 yards per carry), but the passing game is dismal, with only 624 yards (122nd nationally).
Defense: Allows 27 points and 387.3 yards per game (74th in points allowed).
Weaknesses: Inconsistent quarterback play and poor third down conversion rate (35%).

Fresno State Bulldogs (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS, 3-2 O/U)
Record Breakdown: 2-0 ATS at home, 0-1 in conference play
Recent Performance: Edged Hawaii 23-21 but failed to cover as 2.5-point favorites
Next Game: Travels to Colorado State
Offense: Averages a robust 32.8 PPG, led by steady QB EJ Warner (230 yards, 1 TD vs. Hawaii).
Defense: Opportunistic, forcing four turnovers against Hawaii (including a pick-six), allowing 20 points per game.
Weaknesses: Penalties are a concern, with 267 penalty yards in five games.

Head-to-Head History
Fresno State has dominated the series, winning the last four matchups against Nevada, though they’ve covered the spread in only one of those games.

Analysis
Fresno State enters as the clear favorite, leveraging their home field advantage, superior scoring output, and a defense that thrives on creating turnovers. Nevada’s rushing attack, led by Savion Red, could find some early success, but their anemic passing game (122nd nationally) will likely struggle against Fresno’s aggressive pass rush, anchored by linebacker Jadon Pearson (35 tackles). The Bulldogs’ ability to capitalize on mistakes—evidenced by their four takeaway performance against Hawaii—should exploit Nevada’s inconsistent quarterback play. While Fresno State’s penalty issues (267 yards this season) could keep Nevada in the game early, the Bulldogs’ offensive consistency and defensive opportunism should take over in the second half. Expect Fresno to pull away for a decisive victory in a controlled, relatively low scoring game, as Nevada’s offensive struggles limit the total points.

Prediction
Pick: Fresno State -14
Total: Under 45.5

Fresno State’s balanced attack and defensive playmaking should overwhelm Nevada, covering the spread comfortably while keeping the game under the total in a one sided affair.

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
CFB	(381) Colorado at (382) TCU	7:30pm EDT - Oct 4/2025

The PLAY: TCU -13.5 (-109)

Colorado vs. TCU Preview
Date/Time: October 4, 2025, 7:30 PM EDT
Location: Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, TX
Broadcast: Fox Sports Team Records and Trends
Colorado (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 O/U) ATS Road: 0-1
ATS Conference: 1-1
Recent Game: Lost 21-24 to BYU, covered +6.5
Next Up: Hosts Iowa
Scoring: 25.8 PPG | Allowing: 22.8 PPG

TCU (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 2-2 O/U) ATS Home: 1-1
ATS Conference: 0-0-1
Recent Game: Lost 24-27 at Arizona State
Next Up: At Kansas State
Scoring: 37.3 PPG | Allowing: 21.5 PPG
National Ranks: #27 Total Yards, #26 Yards Per Play

Recent History 2022: TCU won 38-13 at Colorado (-8, U58)
2023: Colorado upset TCU 45-42 at Fort Worth (+21, O64)

Both teams are hungry for their first Big 12 win, setting the stage for a high stakes showdown.

Colorado Breakdown
The Buffaloes lean on a balanced offense spearheaded by dual threat QB Kaidon Salter (684 passing yards, 5 TDs; significant rushing contributions). RB Micah Welch (210 yards, 1 TD) and WR Joseph Williams (220 yards, 2 TDs) are key playmakers, but the run game has struggled against Power Four defenses. Defensively, Colorado is reeling. They rank second worst in the Big 12, allowing 197.2 rushing yards per game, with a pass defense outside the top 100 nationally. Injuries exacerbate their woes: DB RJ Johnson (questionable) could further weaken the secondary, and RB Dekalon Taylor’s questionable status strains backfield depth.

TCU Breakdown
TCU’s offense is dynamic, averaging 37.3 points per game, driven by a potent passing attack (320 yards/game, 4th in Big 12, 26th nationally). QB Josh Hoover (1,242 yards, 11 TDs) has been exceptional, targeting WR Eric McAlister, who earned national honors after a 254-yard, 3-TD performance against SMU. However, their run game lags (540 yards, 102nd nationally). TCU’s third down conversion rate (57.7%, 9th in FBS) keeps drives alive. The Horned Frogs’ defense allows 21.5 points per game but showed vulnerabilities in their loss to Arizona State (291 passing yards, 209 rushing yards allowed). They excel at limiting big plays but struggle against mobile QBs like Salter. TCU is 2-0 at home this season and 7-0 SU as favorites over the past two years, with the Amon G. Carter crowd providing a significant boost.

Key Matchups TCU’s Passing Attack vs. Colorado’s Secondary: Hoover and McAlister could exploit Colorado’s injury depleted defensive backfield. If the Buffs can’t pressure Hoover, TCU’s air raid could push the game total over.
Colorado’s Run Game vs. TCU’s Front Seven: Welch and Salter face a TCU defense that allowed 209 rushing yards last week. A strong ground game could keep Colorado competitive and control the clock.
Turnover Margin: Both teams have faltered in losses due to turnovers (Colorado: 1 INT vs. BYU; TCU: squandered an early lead vs. Arizona State). Ball security will be critical.

Analysis and Prediction
TCU’s explosive offense and home field advantage give them a clear edge against a Colorado team hampered by defensive injuries and an inconsistent run game. The Horned Frogs’ passing attack should overwhelm the Buffs’ porous secondary, while their defense is likely to force Salter into mistakes. Expect TCU to rebound with authority in Fort Worth, covering the spread in a potential blowout. However, Colorado’s ability to establish the run could keep this closer than expected, especially if they capitalize on TCU’s defensive lapses against mobile QBs. The game is likely to stay under due to Colorado’s offensive struggles against elite defenses.
Pick: TCU -13.5
Alternative: TCU Team Total Over 35.5 (-110) to hedge against a potential backdoor cover.

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Sport	Game Selection	Game Time
MLB	(931) New York Yankees at (932) Toronto Blue Jays	4:08pm EDT - Oct 4/2025

The PLAY: Take Aaron Judge To Record Over 1.5 Total Bases

Aaron Judge is a prime candidate for going Over 1.5 total bases. His power-hitting prowess makes him a constant home run threat, and a single long ball would secure this play. In the Wild Card Round, Judge went 4-for-11, showcasing his postseason form. Against Toronto's ace, Kevin Gausman, he’s been dominant, batting .354 (17-for-48) with 6 home runs. Judge also hit over .300 against the Blue Jays this season, reinforcing his consistency against their pitching. While Toronto might consider walking him in high-leverage situations, with Gausman on the mound, they’re likely to challenge Judge in lower-leverage spots, increasing his chances to rack up bases.

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